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cover of episode Have America's chips controls backfired?

Have America's chips controls backfired?

2025/2/10
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Chinese Whispers

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C
Cindy Yu
R
Ryan Fedasiuk
S
Steve Hsu
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Ryan Fedasiuk: 我认为美国实施出口管制的主要目的是为了防止中国的军事现代化、遏制人权侵犯以及维护美国的经济竞争力。虽然出口管制并非万能药,但它们在一定程度上减缓了中国在人工智能领域的进展,并提高了其研发成本。中国本土化芯片供应链的趋势早已存在,出口管制加速了这一进程,但这是在政策制定时就已考虑到的因素。我相信,即使存在漏洞,出口管制仍然值得推行,并且应该不断改进。 Steve Hsu: 我认为美国的出口管制政策实际上适得其反,它解决了中国公司之间的协调问题,促使他们更加紧密地合作,加速了本土化进程。对技术能力与美国相当甚至更强的国家实施制裁,可能会促使其本土化整个供应链,最终损害美国公司。此外,中国现在充斥着NVIDIA GPU,这表明美国的制裁并没有真正发挥作用。我认为美国政府高估了他们对动态市场体系的控制能力,产业政策的好坏存在争议,华盛顿特区并不适合制定此类战略。 Cindy Yu: 我认为目前的关键问题在于如何平衡出口管制带来的好处和坏处。一方面,出口管制可能会减缓中国在人工智能领域的发展速度;另一方面,它可能会促使中国加速本土化进程,并最终在某些领域超越美国。我们需要认真权衡这两种影响,并找到最符合美国利益的策略。

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Shownotes Transcript

Beginning in the first Trump presidency and expanded under Joe Biden, the US has taken a strategy of technologically containing China through restricting its access to cutting edge semiconductors. As Chinese Whispers has looked at before), these chips form the backbone of rapid advances in AI, telecoms, smartphones, weaponry and more. Washington’s aim was clear: to widen the technological gap between the two powers

But has this strategy worked? Lately this has become a hot topic of debate as Chinese tech companies such as Huawei and DeepSeek have nevertheless made technical strides. Some even argue that the export controls have spurred on Chinese innovation and self-reliance.

In this episode of Chinese Whispers, two very informed and smart guests debate this issue. Ryan Fedasiuk is U.S. Director of The Future Society, an independent nonprofit organization focused on AI governance, and former Advisor for U.S.-China Bilateral Affairs at the US State Department. Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics at Michigan State University and a start-up founder. He also hosts the podcast, Manifold.

Produced by Cindy Yu and Joe Bedell-Brill.