Xi Jinping is conducting a widespread investigation into corruption within the military, aiming to root out systemic issues and ensure the PLA's readiness and loyalty. This includes purging high-ranking officials like Miao Hua and potentially Defense Minister Dong Jun, who are considered close allies.
The reforms have significantly modernized the PLA, focusing on joint operations and organizational restructuring. However, the effectiveness is still debated due to the lack of recent combat experience and ongoing corruption investigations.
The Central Military Commission (CMC) is the highest military authority in China, responsible for strategic decisions and overseeing operations. It operates parallel to the party and state systems, with Xi Jinping as its chairman, making it more powerful than the Ministry of Defense.
China's strategy involves emulation of certain U.S. capabilities, exploitation of U.S. vulnerabilities, and entrepreneurship in areas like nuclear strategy. Unlike the U.S., China focuses on regional dominance rather than global military intervention.
The investigations could either delay readiness or create uncertainty in Xi Jinping's confidence in his military leaders. This might impose caution on any decision to use force against Taiwan, as he may doubt the accuracy of military assessments.
Xi Jinping has bolstered the military's stature in society through propaganda, special privileges, and publicizing military exercises. This aims to garner public support and enhance the military's credibility in international threats.
Xi Jinping has already identified logistics and command and control as key weaknesses in the PLA, similar to Russia's issues in Ukraine. These were already areas of focus in his military reforms, suggesting that Russia's experience reinforces rather than changes his strategic approach.
2027 is a 'no earlier than' date by which Xi Jinping aims to have the PLA ready for a potential amphibious assault on Taiwan. It is part of a longer-term military plan and does not necessarily mean an invasion will occur by that year.
More than a year after Xi Jinping purged two senior generals in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force unit, China’s investigation into its military seems to be ongoing, with more scalps taken. In recent weeks, Miao Hua, another senior general who had been a member of the Central Military Commission, has been suspended; while reports abound that the country’s current defence minister, Dong Jun, is under investigation too. If suspended, Dong would be the third consecutive defence minister that Xi has removed. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one defence minister may be regarded a misfortune; to lose three looks like carelessness.
So what is happening at the top of the PLA? Is all of this movement a sign of Xi failing to get on top of corruption within the military or, in fact, a sign that he is gearing up for serious military action, perhaps over Taiwan? Just how effective have the military reforms that Xi instigated in 2015 been?
Joining the podcast today are Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on the Chinese military at Stanford University and author of Upstart: How China Became a Great Power, and Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times.