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Xi Jinping's PLA purges

2024/12/9
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Chinese Whispers

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C
Cindy Yu
D
Dimitri Sevastopulo
O
Oriana Skylar Mastro
Topics
Cindy Yu: 本期节目讨论了习近平对解放军高级将领的清洗,以及由此引发的对军队腐败和中国军事行动准备的担忧。清洗已经持续了一年多,并且波及到越来越多的高级官员,包括最近被停职的中央军委委员苗华,以及据报道正在接受调查的国防部长魏凤和。如果魏凤和被停职,这将是习近平第三次罢免国防部长。 Dimitri Sevastopulo: 报道称中国国防部长魏凤和正在接受调查,虽然目前尚不清楚调查原因,但这表明习近平正在对解放军进行大规模的反腐败调查。此举与中国的军事战备和对台湾的潜在行动有关。他还指出,苗华的落马比董俊的调查更重要,因为苗华身处中国军队的领导层。他认为,习近平的反腐运动首先针对军队中的腐败官员,然后转向控制核武器的火箭军。由于中国海军建设投入巨资,且军队存在系统性腐败问题,海军高层可能也存在腐败问题。 Oriana Skylar Mastro: 苗华因严重违反纪律(委婉说法是腐败)而接受调查,他是习近平上任以来被免职的第七位中央军委委员。被调查的高级官员,例如苗华,被认为是习近平的亲信,这使得他们的被免职更加引人注目。仅仅用腐败来解释这些高级官员被免职的原因是不够的。国防部长也面临反腐指控,这将是第三位面临此类指控的国防部长。如果被免职的官员不称职,那么这表明中国的纪律体系有效,对军队战备有利。如果习近平对高级军官缺乏信任,那么这可能会对解放军的战备产生负面影响。习近平对解放军能力的信心可能会促使他对台湾动武,但如果他对军队领导层缺乏信心,这可能会让他更加谨慎。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Xi Jinping purging senior generals in the People's Liberation Army?

Xi Jinping is conducting a widespread investigation into corruption within the military, aiming to root out systemic issues and ensure the PLA's readiness and loyalty. This includes purging high-ranking officials like Miao Hua and potentially Defense Minister Dong Jun, who are considered close allies.

How effective have the military reforms initiated by Xi Jinping in 2015 been?

The reforms have significantly modernized the PLA, focusing on joint operations and organizational restructuring. However, the effectiveness is still debated due to the lack of recent combat experience and ongoing corruption investigations.

What role does the Central Military Commission play in China's military structure?

The Central Military Commission (CMC) is the highest military authority in China, responsible for strategic decisions and overseeing operations. It operates parallel to the party and state systems, with Xi Jinping as its chairman, making it more powerful than the Ministry of Defense.

How does China's military strategy compare to the United States?

China's strategy involves emulation of certain U.S. capabilities, exploitation of U.S. vulnerabilities, and entrepreneurship in areas like nuclear strategy. Unlike the U.S., China focuses on regional dominance rather than global military intervention.

What impact could the ongoing corruption investigations have on China's military readiness for a potential Taiwan conflict?

The investigations could either delay readiness or create uncertainty in Xi Jinping's confidence in his military leaders. This might impose caution on any decision to use force against Taiwan, as he may doubt the accuracy of military assessments.

How has Xi Jinping's leadership influenced the relationship between the Chinese military and the general public?

Xi Jinping has bolstered the military's stature in society through propaganda, special privileges, and publicizing military exercises. This aims to garner public support and enhance the military's credibility in international threats.

What lessons has Xi Jinping drawn from Russia's military performance in Ukraine?

Xi Jinping has already identified logistics and command and control as key weaknesses in the PLA, similar to Russia's issues in Ukraine. These were already areas of focus in his military reforms, suggesting that Russia's experience reinforces rather than changes his strategic approach.

What is the significance of the 2027 deadline often mentioned in relation to Taiwan?

2027 is a 'no earlier than' date by which Xi Jinping aims to have the PLA ready for a potential amphibious assault on Taiwan. It is part of a longer-term military plan and does not necessarily mean an invasion will occur by that year.

Shownotes Transcript

More than a year after Xi Jinping purged two senior generals in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force unit, China’s investigation into its military seems to be ongoing, with more scalps taken. In recent weeks, Miao Hua, another senior general who had been a member of the Central Military Commission, has been suspended; while reports abound that the country’s current defence minister, Dong Jun, is under investigation too. If suspended, Dong would be the third consecutive defence minister that Xi has removed. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one defence minister may be regarded a misfortune; to lose three looks like carelessness.

So what is happening at the top of the PLA? Is all of this movement a sign of Xi failing to get on top of corruption within the military or, in fact, a sign that he is gearing up for serious military action, perhaps over Taiwan? Just how effective have the military reforms that Xi instigated in 2015 been?

Joining the podcast today are Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on the Chinese military at Stanford University and author of Upstart: How China Became a Great Power, and Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China correspondent for the Financial Times.