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cover of episode [GLOBAL SOUTH] China Forced to Regroup After Israel-Iran War

[GLOBAL SOUTH] China Forced to Regroup After Israel-Iran War

2025/6/26
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The China in Africa Podcast
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A
Ahmed Aboudouh
E
Eric Olander
专注于分析中国在全球南方的技术创新和影响的媒体人物和分析师。
K
Kobus Venstaden
Topics
Eric Olander: 从我的角度来看，切断伊朗石油供应会反过来影响美国，因为这会提高中国的生产成本。美国再次呼吁中国利用其对伊朗的影响力，劝阻德黑兰关闭霍尔木兹海峡。但中国在红海问题上的表现表明，如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭，中国可能会给予俄罗斯和中国的船只安全通行。中国可能正在权衡减少对伊朗石油的依赖，以降低风险。 Kobus Venstaden: 我认为追踪中国与伊朗的关系非常困难，因为我们对它们关系的真正内容知之甚少。关于中伊关系的叙事很多，但中国是否真的像人们认为的那样有影响力，这很难说。伊朗与中国的关系可能比华盛顿认为的更加模糊。中国一直在努力建立替代航运路线，同时中国的脱碳努力也在进行中。 Ahmed Aboudouh: 我认为霍尔木兹海峡对中国的能源安全至关重要，因为中国45%的石油进口来自海湾地区。伊朗从未关闭霍尔木兹海峡，可能是因为缺乏军事能力或战略考量。关闭霍尔木兹海峡对伊朗来说可能是战略自杀，因为它会严重影响全球石油贸易，并招致军事回应。中国有一些工具来应对霍尔木兹海峡的局势，例如派遣舰队护航或达成类似红海的协议。霍尔木兹海峡的困境将促使中国实现能源来源多样化。海湾地区和中国担心以色列可能会再次袭击伊朗，导致地区不稳定。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter analyzes China's dependence on Iranian oil and the potential consequences of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. It explores the vulnerability of China's oil supply chain and discusses the economic implications of such a move. The discussion also touches on the declining Chinese oil purchases from Iran and the potential influence of this development.
  • 14% of China's oil imports are from Iran.
  • 90% of Iranian oil exports go to China.
  • 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • A third to 45% of China's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Chinese oil purchases from Iran have been steadily declining.

Shownotes Transcript

China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now.

The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks on its nuclear facilities. This would be devastating for the Chinese economy, given that between a third and half of all Chinese oil imports pass through this strategic waterway.

Ahmed Aboudouh, head of the China research unit at the Emirates Policy Center and an associate fellow in the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new realities facing Beijing in the aftermath of the war in Iran.

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