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cover of episode It's Payback Time For a Lot of Those Chinese Loans

It's Payback Time For a Lot of Those Chinese Loans

2025/6/27
logo of podcast The China in Africa Podcast

The China in Africa Podcast
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People
E
Eric Olander
专注于分析中国在全球南方的技术创新和影响的媒体人物和分析师。
K
Kobus Venstaden
R
Riley Duke
Topics
Eric Olander: 我介绍了非洲债务问题的最新情况，指出虽然中国贷款占非洲外债的比例正在缩小，但发展中国家在2025年将面临巨大的偿还压力，特别是来自最贫穷国家。中国自身也面临债务问题，这影响了其对外贷款能力。同时，非洲国家需要资金发展基础设施，却又难以偿还债务，陷入两难境地。 Kobus Venstaden: 我认为，外国援助的削减加剧了非洲国家的发展困境，尤其是在基础设施和应对气候变化方面。中国作为全球南方国家，其贷款行为应放在全球南北财富转移的大背景下看待，传统的贷款国赚取了巨额利润，加剧了全球南北之间的权力分裂。 Riley Duke: 我的报告重点关注最贫穷和最脆弱国家所欠中国的债务，指出这些国家面临着非常高的还款压力。中国正在从净资本提供者转变为净资本消耗者，这对这些国家的预算造成了压力。同时，承担贷款的国家也有责任，中国发布了更新的债务可持续性措施，表明其可能在某些情况下向不应该承担债务的国家提供了贷款。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast discusses the rising debt repayment burden on African countries to China, totaling $35 billion in 2025, with a significant portion from the world's poorest nations. This coincides with a decrease in Chinese lending and increased borrowing from other sources.
  • Africa's total external debt is expected to reach $1.2 trillion.
  • China's share of Africa's external debt has decreased to 12%.
  • Chinese lending has decreased sharply, with only $6.1 billion in loans issued in 2023.
  • Developing countries will repay $35 billion in loans to China in 2025, $22 billion from the world's poorest countries.

Shownotes Transcript

Borrowers in Africa and other developing regions are expected to repay $35 billion of Chinese loans this year, with two-thirds of the amount coming from the world's poorest countries. Many of these debts were taken out in the mid-2010s and are now exiting their grace periods, putting enormous pressure on government budgets that were already under strain.

But this isn't a problem just for borrowing countries; Chinese creditors are also finding themselves in a difficult bind. If they push too hard to collect on these debts, it could force the most vulnerable countries into default. At the same time, though, they have an obligation to their stakeholders, including Chinese taxpayers, to ensure these obligations are fulfilled.

Riley Duke, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, highlighted the difficult dilemma for both creditor and borrower in a new report on Chinese debt collection. Riley joins Eric & Cobus from Sydney to discuss how both sides of the transaction are responding to this growing challenge.

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