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cover of episode The Chinese FDI Boom in Africa That Wasn’t

The Chinese FDI Boom in Africa That Wasn’t

2025/6/13
logo of podcast The China in Africa Podcast

The China in Africa Podcast
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C
Charles Kenny
E
Eric Olander
专注于分析中国在全球南方的技术创新和影响的媒体人物和分析师。
Topics
Eric Olander: 我认为中国在非洲的投资正经历转型，从基础设施建设转向小规模制造业，以满足当地市场需求。尽管贸易额有所增长，但非洲对中国的出口仍面临挑战。中国给予部分非洲国家免关税待遇，但这并不意味着非洲能够轻易进入中国市场。我们应该关注非关税壁垒，例如卫生标准，这些因素也会影响贸易。 Charles Kenny: 最初，我希望看到中国将制造业大规模转移到非洲，但现实是存在诸多障碍。虽然中国在非洲的制造业投资提高了生产力，并在水泥和原材料加工等领域有所进展，但规模并未达到预期。全球制造业就业人数已达顶峰，发达国家对服务业的需求增加，这使得非洲通过制造业实现经济增长的道路变得更加狭窄。我认为非洲国家应该抓住现有的机会，但也要制定备选方案，例如直接进入重工业或更多地参与原材料加工。同时，考虑到发达国家面临的人口结构变化，非洲可以更多地依赖移民主导的增长模式，出口劳动力。然而，政治环境对移民并不友好，这使得非洲面临挑战。我们应该采取投资组合的方式制定发展战略，包括加强区域一体化，更多地考虑服务出口和人口流动。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter discusses the recent trends in China-Africa trade, highlighting a 12.4% increase in two-way trade during the first five months of the year. It also covers China's announcement of tariff-free access to 53 African countries.
  • 12.4% increase in China-Africa trade (Jan-May)
  • China grants tariff-free access to 53 African countries
  • Focus on exports from China to Africa

Shownotes Transcript

For years, China has been seen as the pivotal international economic partner across Africa. That was certainly true in terms of steadily rising trade volumes and a fire hose of state backed loans that built roads, railways, and ports across the continent.

But when it comes to investment, China's always been a laggard behind the United States and the former European colonial powers. Today, it's the UAE, not China, that is the continent's largest source of foreign direct investment.

Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C., joins Eric to discuss his latest report on Chinese FDI in Africa and why the long-promised wave of manufacturing investment never materialized.

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