China Has 18 Months to Invade Taiwan
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Right now we're in the midst of a trade war 2.0. I'm curious what you think about how that is impacting the Chinese economy and what the goals are. Because based on what President Trump is saying, he seems to want a trade deal. But I don't understand why you would trust a trade deal with a country that lies constantly and has violated all of its promises.

First of all, it's important to note that nobody wants war. You probably know President Trump is certainly not someone that wants war. His base is certainly, you know, even second guessing his decision to drop the bomb bombs on Nataz and Fordow in Iran. This is our golden opportunity to set Iran's nuclear program back at least a decade.

So I think we're going to do so. We should do so. But the the overarching issue in your question is, you know, does Trump does President Trump want a deal? Of course he wants a deal. He's a deal man. He would rather see China give us, I guess, again, some sort of deal where they agree we're trying to integrate China.

pushing back. You said you guys were in the Philippines at Scarborough Shoal. We're trying to push them back away from this, as you know, crazy nine dash line idea and their force projection all the way to the coast of the Philippines and the second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal all the way back. We're trying to in the trade deal. We're bringing into the trade deal their militaristic movements. And of course, their military. They're saying, if you want to talk military movements, then we're not going to talk about.

So that's where we are today. But will Trump do a trade deal if we can get kind of a global settlement out of them where they actually have something that is measurable and enforceable? It's much better than any alternative of, you know, ratcheting, ratcheting up to kind of embargo levels and turning them off now in the end.

I'm more of an absolutist. I would turn them off because we share none of the values of their government. And I don't believe that that that I believe that lack of compatibility ends up playing at some point in time. And it feels like that time is in the next couple of years. It's starting now. But you're going to see that really play out with China's militaristic belligerence going forward. I think the relationship is forever fractured.

China showed us what their grand strategy is and we have to start fighting back and on the tariff side We are fighting back On the military side. We're doing what we can to prepare for something that we don't want to happen But unfortunately, you know just like Trotsky said you may not be interested in war but we're certainly interested in you You know, that's that's what's happening here. Well one thing that

Confuses me about the trade deal is that Trump is saying that he wants China to give more access to American businesses and this to me seems antithetical to a strategy of gradual decoupling to provide safety for our economy and

So what do you think is going on there? Yeah, I mean, okay, look, Trump listens to, we have a last guy in the room program or problem sometimes. And so he listens to business leaders. So if you think, if you listen to the Chamber of Commerce, you know, if you let the Chamber, the American Chamber of Commerce listen

Set our national security policy. We all be speaking Chinese tomorrow So you have capitalists if you saw, you know, Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan led the the cattle deal and you know, I know that people from our

let's just say intelligence complex and congressional oversight, had conversations with Jamie Dimon and said, "Cowdell makes things directly for the Chinese military that are positioning to attack us. Like, how can you do that?" Jamie said, "Well, China is a big place. I mean, we were competing for the deal where we did it." Think about this.

Watson at IBM received a medal from Hitler for helping him assimilate the Jews. I mean, right. Building the punch cards, the computer punch cards that help them assimilate the Jews quicker. It's that's actually fascinating.

What I'm telling you is some people have no more compass. They just they're out for they're out for the dollar. And so Trump is talking with business leaders that either want to get their money out under the guise of a more, let's just say, an open, more open relationship.

But strategically, you can see what's happening behind the scenes on export controls, on chips, on things that we now know are vital for their military. And let's say they're racing us in the quantum and AI races, which are vital for us to win. You see him making the right decisions there and him talking about doing a deal and opening up. The last thing we want is for China to go now.

If Xi Jinping were to move now on Taiwan, it's probably the worst time for us. We haven't filled in the holes that we were talking about. And there are more holes out there that we're not talking about that are really important that we need about 18 months to fix. So there's a very...

odd, awful window of opportunity for our adversary to move. And we just hope that it doesn't happen between now and then. So maybe this concept is a little bit more buying us time, uh, to get, to get our house in order. What are some of those other holes? Well, I mean, look, without, without talking about anything that's classified, it's important to note that, um,

Precision munitions manufacturing is nowhere near where we need it to be right now. Our inventories are not very high. And so all of those things, all of the actual numbers are classified. But let's just say on a scale of low, medium or high where inventories are, they're low. And if we are to engage in a kinetic conflict with China and the South China Sea, we need that number to be super high.

And so the difference between low and super high, there's a duration mismatch that takes time and it takes capital. And so we have a few strategic vulnerabilities that we need to fix. Post-World War II, there were seven places in America where we manufactured dumb munitions, not smart, precision, just dumb ones, you know, 155s. Now there's one. There's only one.

Like having a single point of failure is pretty crazy. And we have, we happen to have one. So we're working on fixing those. But again, those take time. So on the military and kinetic side, we have our own problems on the side of antibiotics and other places like synthetic graphite and rare earth minerals. We're going to fix those things. But all of those things need to be fixed now.

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