cover of episode Broken Engagement: Veteran China reporter Bob Davis on his new collection of interviews

Broken Engagement: Veteran China reporter Bob Davis on his new collection of interviews

2025/5/7
logo of podcast Sinica Podcast

Sinica Podcast

AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
B
Bob Davis
Topics
Bob Davis: 我认为对华接触并非从一开始就注定失败,早期以安全为重点的接触取得了成效,但2009年后开始走下坡路。美国在对华接触政策上过于天真,低估了自身影响中国轨迹的能力。不同官员对接触的定义和预期各不相同,这导致了政策的不一致性。特朗普政府官员认为美国被愚弄了,而一些拜登政府官员则后悔在奥巴马时期没有采取更强硬的行动。美国模式及其软实力曾是其巨大的优势,但如今其影响力有所下降。 Nancy Pelosi: 将人权与贸易地位挂钩的策略从一开始就注定失败,企业利益最终战胜了道德诉求。我的台湾之行并非鲁莽之举,但我也没有充分考虑其可能造成的风险。 Robert Gates: 早期对华接触主要关注国家安全,而非经济。对华接触可能促使了习近平的反腐行动。一个由习近平领导的繁荣中国并不符合美国的利益。 Charlene Barshefsky: WTO加入本身并非失败,但美国未能同时调整国内政策是出现问题的原因之一。 Lawrence Summers: 将中国排除在WTO之外将是灾难性的,虽然中国冲击对美国造成了负面影响,但这是全球化的必然结果。 Bob Zoellick: 我的“负责任的利益攸关者”概念并非对中国的现状描述,而是对其应有的行为的规定。外交是一个持续的过程,而非简单的成功或失败。 Stephen Hadley: 美国情报机构可能误判了中国人民解放军的备战指令,战略模糊性具有双重作用。 Ash Carter: 奥巴马政府在南海问题上优先考虑外交而非威慑,这削弱了美国的立场。 Matt Pottinger: 特朗普的对华政策并非完全混乱,COVID-19改变了一切,特朗普政府释放了鹰派势力。 Michael Rogers: 奥巴马政府对中国网络间谍活动反应迟缓,美国应该采取更强硬的措施。 Robert O'Brien: 我认为“逆基辛格”战略是可行的,美国应该努力将俄罗斯与中国分开。 Kurt Campbell: 拜登政府将“脱钩”和“去风险”区分开来,但两者之间存在语义上的重叠。 Rahm Emanuel: 我在社交媒体上与习近平的互动是对“战狼外交”的回应,这既是我的个人风格,也是对美国政府立场的表达。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

This week on Sinica, I chat with veteran Wall Street Journal reporter Bob Davis, who has covered the U.S.-China relationship for decades. He recently published a new book called Broken Engagement, which consists of interviews with U.S. policymakers who were instrumental in shaping American policy toward China from the George H.W. Bush administration through the Biden administration. It's an eye-opening look at the individuals who fought for — and against — engagement with China.

2:58 – Bob’s thoughts on engagement: whether it was doomed from the start, when and why there was a shift, people’s different aspirations for it and retrospective positioning, and whether it could have a transformative effect  

13:28 – The Nancy Pelosi interview: her approach, her Taiwan visit, and her critique of capitulation to business interests

17:18 – Bob’s interviews with Charlene Barshefsky, Lawrence Summers, and Bob Zoellick: the WTO accession, the China shock, Zoellick’s “responsible stakeholder” concept, and diplomacy as an ongoing process 

27:24 – The Robert Gates interview: security-focused engagement, and his shift to realism 

31:14 – Misreading Xi Jinping

34:42 – Bob’s interviews with Stephen Hadley and Ash Carter regarding the South China Sea 

39:19 – The Matt Pottinger interview: his view on China and how COVID changed everything 

46:14 – Michael Rogers’ interview: cyber espionage and cyber policy 

51:25 – Robert O’Brien’s interview: the “reverse Kissinger” and Taiwan 

54:14 – Bob’s interview with Kurt Campbell: his famous *Foreign Affairs *essay, differentiating between decoupling and de-risking, and technology export restrictions and trade deals 

59:28 – The Rahm Emanuel interview: his response to wolf warrior diplomacy

1:01:57 – Bob’s takeaways: the long-term vision of engagement, introspective interviewees, and his own increased pessimism 

Paying It Forward: Lingling Wei) at The Wall Street JournalEva Dou) at The Washington Post and her book House of Huawei: The Secret History of China’s Most Powerful Company); and Katrina Northrop) at The Washington Post 

Recommendations: 

Bob: The TV series Derry Girls) (2018-2022) and Curb Your Enthusiasm) (2000-2024); and Margaret O’Farrell’s novels, including Hamnet) and The Marriage Portrait) 

Kaiser: The BBC and Masterpiece series Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light) 

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy) and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info).