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David Plotz
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman: 我认为杰罗姆·鲍威尔现在应该非常担心自己的工作，因为他辛辛苦苦取得的成果正在被迅速破坏。疫情过后，他肩负着让国家财政重回正轨的重任，许多人对此表示怀疑，但他最终证明了他们的怀疑是错误的。他成功地以一种负责任且可持续的方式让经济降温，而没有引发失业，这堪称一项壮举。然而，唐纳德·特朗普的出现改变了一切。特朗普的政策使得鲍威尔的工作异常艰难，更糟糕的是，特朗普还在公开威胁要解雇他。面对如此困境，鲍威尔以温和却始终如一的诚实态度进行了反击，他指出特朗普的关税政策可能导致更高的通货膨胀和更缓慢的经济增长，这对于任何政治家来说都是一场噩梦。特朗普随后在社交媒体上表示，鲍威尔的解雇一刻都不能迟，这番话让市场感到恐慌，以至于特朗普在周二晚上不得不收回他强硬的言论。试想一下，如果你是美联储主席，面对这种反复无常的态度，你会感到安心吗？尽管鲍威尔处理这些压力表现得非常优雅，但这确实让他的工作复杂化了，尤其是在我们面临复杂经济形势以及他试图应对的政策的当下。
美联储主席通常享有很大的工作保障。人们不断提出总统能否解雇杰罗姆·鲍威尔的问题，答案是：我不知道，我不是律师。但两年前，答案很可能是“不能”，两年前我的答案也是如此。但看看现在白宫所做的一切，很多事情都是前所未有的。我们看到特朗普解雇了许多人们认为他不能或不应该解雇的人，例如监察长，他还任命了效忠于他的官员进入国防部和联邦调查局。那么，为什么美联储主席会例外呢？如果你认为你已经见识过市场的大幅波动，那么试试解雇美联储主席吧！债券市场比股票市场更重要，因为它能反映经济的真实状况，并对经济产生影响。债券就像你给政府的贷款，通常期限为10年。政府现在使用你的钱，以后连同利息一起还给你。这种信贷是美国经济运转的关键。想想大萧条，它始于股市崩盘，但导致实际萧条的是信贷的蒸发。人们无法借钱创业、买房或分期付款购买商品，这就是经济陷入恶性循环的方式。因此，人们非常关注债券市场。詹姆斯·卡维尔曾说过，他想转世成为一名债券交易员，因为他们可以恐吓所有人。债券市场之所以如此重要，是因为它为整个经济提供融资。如果任何企业都必须用自己的现金储备来支付工厂的费用，那么它将永远无法建造工厂。一切都是融资的，在某种程度上都是借贷的。美国经济对借贷的依赖是一个弱点，但在系统运转良好时，它又非常活跃。这就是为什么我们往往比世界其他国家更快地走出经济低迷的原因，因为我们擅长创造信贷并鼓励人们冒险。所有这些都取决于债务的可负担性和市场的平稳运行。基本上，其他国家，如中国，来到美国，购买我们的债券，并将他们的资金存放在这里。它作为对联邦政府的贷款，用于联邦政府希望做的一切事情。这就是为什么国会可以花费大量资金的原因。它为我们整个赤字模式提供资金。如果人们，你知道，大多数家庭必须每年平衡他们的预算。事实上，大多数州都必须平衡他们的预算，但联邦政府则不然。它运行赤字，并且能够做到这一点，花费超过它在服务上的收入，我们都想要和需求，因为人们愿意购买它的债务。因此，这意味着任何闪烁，任何信号，即已经崩溃，人们现在有点担心借给华盛顿是极其重要的，并且被非常非常密切地观察。这就是关税之后发生的事情。债券市场失去了理智。是的，人们开始抛售他们的债券。特朗普希望鲍威尔降低利率，因为他本质上是一个房地产商人，房地产在利率低、资金便宜时运作最佳。你的抵押贷款在利率低时更实惠，这同样适用于商业房地产，就像唐纳德·特朗普所从事的开发一样。开发商以极低的利率借款，然后建造大型项目。这是一个旋转木马，它依赖于廉价的债务。因此，特朗普一直喜欢低利率。他自称是债务之王，所以这始终是他的出发点。鲍威尔面临着控制通货膨胀和支持经济增长的两难境地，这让人联想到70年代的滞胀。滞胀是指高物价和经济停滞同时存在，这在正常经济学中是不常见的，因为它需要外部冲击。人们担心，关税是导致目前经济困境的外部冲击因素，它人为地提高了美国人购买的许多商品的价格，同时又抑制了企业投资和人们创业的积极性。
特朗普将美联储主席称为“太迟先生”，并暗示他应该降低利率。如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔，将会引发严重的市场动荡，甚至可能导致金融危机。美国国债是全球金融体系的基础，其价格波动会影响全球经济。如果美国国债价格下跌，将会引发大规模的保证金追缴，可能导致金融危机。投资者对美国国债的信心下降，这反映了当前政治局势的不确定性。美国作为世界储备货币的地位并非理所当然，其地位取决于其经济和政治的稳定性。如果90天内没有达成新的贸易协议，债券市场可能会再次波动。鲍威尔态度坚定，不太可能屈服于特朗普的压力。特朗普政府的政治影响力正在减弱，这可能会给鲍威尔提供更多支持。
David Plotz: 全球投资者对美国经济失去信心是导致特朗普改变策略的关键因素。
supporting_evidences
Liz Hoffman: 'The consensus was that he had done it, that he had sort of pulled off the rare feat of cooling the economy in a responsible, sustainable way. Without triggering unemployment.'
Liz Hoffman: 'Facing this tough hand, Powell has pushed back with mild-mannered but consistent honesty. He said Trump's tariffs could lead to higher inflation and slower growth.'
Liz Hoffman: 'We've seen Trump fire a whole lot of people that no one thought he could or should fire, like inspectors general, for instance.'
Liz Hoffman: 'He liked that Powell was out of central casting. Like, he looks like a guy who should be running the Federal Reserve.'
Liz Hoffman: 'He's a pretty establishment guy. You know, he spent some time on Wall Street at a private equity firm, but he's a really kind of centrist Republican.'
Liz Hoffman: 'I know Powell talks a lot about the dual mandate goals of the Federal Reserve, which are maximum employment and stable prices, right?'
Liz Hoffman: 'Look, we were, you know, as weird as it sounds to say the pandemic was a normal situation and the post-pandemic craziness was normal, it was textbook economically normal...'
Liz Hoffman: 'The problem is that playbook doesn't work in a situation like we have now, where you are worried about low growth, so a fire that is dying, but high prices.'
Liz Hoffman: 'So a lot of people, when they say the market, they think the stock market. And I understand that it's visceral. You look at your 401k and it feels tangible to you. But the dirty secret is that it doesn't really matter. The bond market matters a lot.'
Liz Hoffman: 'It finances the entire economy. If you had to, if any business had to pay for a factory out of its own cash reserves, it would never build a factory.'
Liz Hoffman: 'What you have to remember about President Trump is that he is at heart a real estate guy.'
Liz Hoffman: 'He said the central bank could find itself in caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, which raises this specter of the 70s, right? Stagflation.'
Liz Hoffman: 'Here, the concern is that the external shock is the tariffs that have artificially made something and a lot of things that Americans buy more expensive...'
David Plotz: 'And we talked about why the public's retreat from the bond market is what really made Trump flinch.'
Liz Hoffman: 'Treasury bonds have become kind of the monopoly money of the world.'
Liz Hoffman: 'If the collateral gets less valuable overnight, which is what would happen if people dump treasury bonds overnight. You're going to see margin calls like we haven't seen since at least 2008, possibly ever...'
Liz Hoffman: 'People are realizing, I'm not sure I feel that much safer holding treasury bonds, being a creditor to the U.S. government than I do holding a bunch of Nvidia stock.'
Liz Hoffman: 'But, you know, as a Wall Streeter was telling me recently, he was reminding me that the Dutch guilder was once the reserve currency of the world.'
Liz Hoffman: 'I would expect the bond market to get twitchy again as we get closer to that 90-day clock...'
Liz Hoffman: 'But into all of that, you know, Trump called the Federal Reserve chair a major loser and said he wants to fire him.'
Liz Hoffman: 'I think he's really committed to not leaving. I mean, I think he knows that he is sort of one of the last things that's keeping the U.S. economy on semi even footing.'
Deep Dive
This chapter explores the tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump's public threats to fire Powell are examined, along with the potential market reactions and the unusual nature of the situation.
- Trump's public threats to fire Jerome Powell.
- Powell's calm response to the pressure.
- Uncertainty about the president's power to remove the Fed chair.
- Market reactions to Trump's statements.
Shownotes Transcript