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J
Jack Howe
R
Randall Connick
Randall Connick: 我对Lululemon的看法是悲观的。该公司在过去十年中经历了显著增长，营收达到100亿美元。然而，如此庞大的营收规模使其增长面临瓶颈。为了维持增长，Lululemon正试图进军非核心产品类别，例如女式毛衣和裙子，但这些尝试收效甚微。盈利和增长都开始放缓。虽然毛利率一直高于市场预期，但这并不能掩盖销售放缓的事实。我们认为，Lululemon的新产品并未取得成功，因为它们并非核心产品。这将成为Lululemon未来几个季度面临的主要问题。此外，为了吸引更多客户群体并扩大市场规模，Lululemon改变了其门店的商品构成和整体形象，但我们认为这是一个错误的举动，因为它偏离了Lululemon最初的瑜伽服装定位。我们预计Lululemon在美国市场的增长将在2025年转为负增长，而国际市场，特别是中国市场，仍将保持稳健增长。与市场普遍预期的高个位数增长率不同，我们预测Lululemon在2025年的总营收增长率将仅为低个位数。考虑到美国业务即将转为负增长，我们认为高个位数增长率是不可能的。Lululemon目前的市值超过400亿美元，而耐克的市值低于1000亿美元，另一家规模与Lululemon相当的竞争对手Under Armour的市值则不到30亿美元。我们认为Lululemon的市值被高估了。虽然我们不认为Lululemon会倒闭，但我们认为其市值可能会从目前的400多亿美元降至200多亿美元。
至于耐克，我们最近将其评级上调为买入。过去几年，我们一直对耐克持负面看法，原因是其CEO存在问题、缺乏产品创新以及分销不平衡。但现在情况发生了变化。前任CEO被解雇，公司聘请了曾在公司工作多年并最近退休的Elliot Hill担任CEO。Hill是一位资深的管理人员，他将能够迅速改善耐克的企业文化。此外，Hill曾负责耐克的全球批发业务，因此他能够改善或重新平衡批发和直销之间的关系，并加强产品创新。耐克的市销率已跌至十年低点，市值也回到了十年前的水平。我们认为，耐克的估值过低，新的CEO和战略方向将有助于公司扭转局面。虽然我们可能在财报发布前一两周就过早地将耐克评级上调，但我们认为这是一个为期两年的投资建议。耐克仍然是运动鞋领域的领导者，即使面临来自Hoka、On Running和New Balance等新兴品牌的竞争，其改进产品和平衡分销的战略仍有望改善业绩。
耐克过去曾与Foot Locker等零售商建立了非常紧密的合作关系，但后来耐克为了提高利润率，开始更加注重直接销售。这导致耐克与Foot Locker的关系恶化，但耐克现在正在努力修复这些关系。新的CEO认识到耐克需要在各个渠道都能买到，因此正在调整分销策略，以平衡批发和直销。我们对耐克的股价目标为每股115美元，目前股价为每股66美元。这意味着股价将几乎翻倍。但这需要时间，这是一个需要耐克重塑自身的过程。我们预计，在未来一年左右的时间里，耐克的业务将朝着正确的方向发展，股价将上涨，并重新确立其作为全球第一运动品牌的领先地位。
Jack Howe: 我关注Lululemon的原因是它是一家大型公司，并且最近发布了季度财报。财报显示，销售额和盈利都超过了预期，但同店销售增长并不理想，美洲地区的业绩也不佳，而且预期指引低于市场普遍预期。Jefferies分析师Randall Connick在财报发布前发布了一份看跌报告，我认为这是一个大胆的预测，因此我想了解更多信息。我还注意到，一个名为Alo Yoga的瑜伽服品牌越来越受欢迎，这让我想知道它对Lululemon的受欢迎程度有何影响。我不太清楚这两个品牌的具体比较，但它们都销售男装。
关于食品行业，小型食品品牌正在快速增长，并占据越来越大的市场份额。大型食品公司正在失去市场份额，原因包括消费者预算紧张和自有品牌商品的崛起。消费者更注重产品的健康、道德属性和品牌故事，这导致大型食品公司面临市场份额流失的风险。许多消费者更注重产品的健康、道德属性和品牌故事，这导致大型食品公司面临市场份额流失的风险。
supporting_evidences
Randall Connick: 'Yeah, yeah, yeah. So good question. And thanks for having me, Jack. Look, I think what we've been focused on with this company is the idea that they're seeing a lot more competition, competition from the likes of upstarts and competition from the likes of the stalwarts like Nike. So here's a company, Lululemon, that's grown dramatically over the last decade, up to $10 billion of revenue. But now that revenue base is starting to hit a wall of growth, right? Where you have the law of large numbers and to try to continue to grow what the company is doing is they're trying to grow into non-core categories...'
Randall Connick: 'Earnings have started to kind of slow, so has growth. The rabbit out of the hat refers to gross margins have been more, I guess, solid, than the market would have thought. So they've kept investors interested on the gross margin line while sales have slowed and promised a return to accelerating growth with new products. We think those new products aren't working. Those new products are not in the core. And we think that's going to be the problem for Lulu. Maybe not this quarter, but over the next couple of quarters as we go throughout 2025.'
Randall Connick: 'I think a decade ago, what was really interesting about this company is that it was primarily just a women's business, primarily just a yoga-inspired, mostly leggings, and I guess perhaps sports bra kind of business. And in order to kind of grow the business over the years and try to attract non-target demographics, other people to increase the TAM, if you will, the business, the store has changed...'
Randall Connick: 'So we basically see a vision of a company where it goes negative growth in the United States in 2025, offset partially by still solid growth in international markets, particularly in China. Where we're different from the street with Lululemon is we're projecting revenue growth in 2025 around low single-digit growth on total, whereas the consensus, the other analysts out there collectively think that Lululemon is going to still grow at a high single-digit rate on a total company basis in 2025...'
Randall Connick: 'But as it pertains to Lulu specifically, what we're looking for in the print is this idea that there's continued softness in the U.S. business given competition and just some more difficult consumer trends generally around That coupled with the idea that the rabbit of gross margins being able to be sustained and strong over the last four to six quarters, that rabbit coming out of the hat no longer comes out of the hat, right? So the idea that we're starting to see some kind of headwinds forming for gross margin...'
Randall Connick: 'Yeah, the theme with Nike is a journey of improvement ahead. What we used to say over the last couple of years is just don't buy it, right? We didn't like the stock. We said that there's issues with the CEO. There's issues with lack of focus on product innovation, and there's an imbalance in distribution...'
Randall Connick: 'And at the end of the day, while we brought up those brands of Hoka and On Running and to your point, New Balance, there's a couple of things that are very important. Number one, Nike is still number one, right? And number two, there's really only 10 companies that matter in athletic footwear...'
Randall Connick: 'I think what happened under the old CEO, a person that was a tech executive that didn't have this perspective, is the old CEO didn't understand that Nike is Coca-Cola, right? So with Coca-Cola, you want to be able to buy it in a deli, in a supermarket at a Jets game...'
Randall Connick: 'Yeah, so our price target is $115 a share. The stock's $66 as we speak. So obviously that is a near doubling of the stock price from here. Now, it's not going to happen overnight. This is not going to happen in a quarter. This is a business that needs to go through a journey, right? A journey of get back to Nike being Nike...'
Jack Howe: 'Bain and Company found that companies like that, food insurgents, they're generating 27% of industry growth, and they're doing it using brands that collectively hold less than 1% market share. So most of the growth right now is coming from tiny companies, not legacy brands.'
Jack Howe: 'I talked several weeks ago on this podcast about how big food is struggling. You can point to different causes. Obesity drugs, perhaps. Stretched consumer budgets, definitely. J.P. Morgan finds that private label goods are taking market share in 61% of the food categories it tracks...'
Jack Howe: 'But here's another. J.P. Morgan finds that non-major brands are taking market share in even more categories, 67%. Not coincidentally, publicly traded food companies, the big ones, they've been losing market share to others for two years. And the rate at which they're losing share is increasing...'
Jack Howe: 'But I think that the point of this analysis from JP Morgan is that for a lot of customers out there, that's not the case. There's a lot of customers who are skipping over established brands and they're going for stories about health, about ethics, about smallness...'
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes Lululemon's financial performance, noting its slowing growth and diversification into non-core categories. The analyst expresses concern about the sustainability of its growth and profitability, questioning whether Lululemon can continue to find new sources of growth.
- Lululemon's revenue growth is slowing.
- The company is expanding into non-core categories.
- Concerns exist about the sustainability of the company's growth and margins.
Shownotes Transcript