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A tale of two jobs reports

2025/7/3

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Kimberly Adams

Rima Grace

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Rima Grace: 今天发布的就业报告显示，六月份的招聘情况好于经济学家的预期，经济状况整体良好。医疗保健和州及地方政府部门的就业增长最为显著，但制造业就业有所下降，可能与关税的不确定性有关。同时，休闲和酒店行业的增长不大，可能与特朗普政府对移民的打压有关。尽管存在经济逆风，雇主并未大幅裁员。特朗普一直向美联储主席施压要求降息，但他对鲍威尔不降息感到不满。鲍威尔认为，只要经济状况良好，明智之举就是等待更多数据再做决定，而今天的就业报告使得美联储更难以为降息辩护。 Kimberly Adams: 政府发布的就业报告涵盖了所有行业，而ADP就业报告仅关注私营部门的招聘情况。ADP报告显示，如果剔除州和地方政府的招聘，私营部门在6月份失去了33,000个工作岗位。目前没有太多证据表明政府数据存在政治干预，但由于其他原因，政府数据的质量正在逐渐下降。ADP和政府的数据差异在于他们考察的信息不同，一个包括州和地方政府的招聘，另一个不包括，但两者都告诉我们关于整体经济的有趣故事。移民政策的收紧可能导致维持失业率稳定所需的就业增长减少，甚至可能只需要每月增加少量工作岗位就能保持失业率稳定。

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The Labor Department today reported the United States added 147,000 jobs in June. The number beat economists expectations, and it sits in stark contrast to yesterday’s ADP report) which showed private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month. So what gives? We’ll explain what the two reports can tell us about the labor market right now. And, President Trump’s immigration crackdown could lead to more federal surveillance on all Americans. Plus, we want to hear about the wins in your life!

Here’s everything we talked about today:

"ADP report June 2025: Private sector lost 33,000 jobs, missing expectations") from CNBC
"Republican Budget Bill Signals New Era in Federal Surveillance") from Tech Policy Press
"Steady Hiring Added 147,000 Jobs to U.S. Economy in June") from The Wall Street Journal
"Can We Trust a Jobs Report From the Trump Administration? Yes, With Caveats.") from The New York Times

Got a question for the hosts? Call 508-U-B-SMART or email [email protected].

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A tale of two jobs reports