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cover of episode Consumers couldn't turn frowns upside-down for long

Consumers couldn't turn frowns upside-down for long

2025/6/24
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Marketplace All-in-One

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People
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Bill Adams
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Chris Brummer
C
Corey Frayer
E
Eric Mace
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Gao Shengqi
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Huang Yanhan
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John Jastrzewski
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Juan Vargas
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Kayla Bruhn
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Kayla Brune
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Kyle Risdell
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Matt Wright
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Miao Jiahao
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Nathan McKee
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Rory Satchin
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Samir Samana
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Summer Merzinger
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Tim DeNoyer
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Trevor Ivey
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Tuan Nguyen
Topics
Samir Samana: 我认为目前的油价水平反映了市场参与者普遍预期伊朗不会封锁霍尔木兹海峡。当前油价与几周前以色列发动袭击前夕的价格基本持平,这表明市场对地缘政治风险的担忧有所缓解。 Matt Wright: 我认为石油运输成本的波动性通常高于原油本身的价格波动。即使20%的运费变动也并不罕见。目前运费上涨的原因之一是,由于导弹袭击事件导致一些原定的石油运输预约被取消,托运人正试图通过增加额外的运输来弥补损失,导致船舶需求增加,从而推高了运费。 Tim DeNoyer: 我认为尽管全球石油供应面临的总体风险可能有所降低,但波斯湾地区单艘油轮面临的风险仍然较高。这些风险包括被扣押或遭受袭击的可能性。虽然这些风险正在逐渐降低,但市场可能需要一段时间才能完全重新评估这些风险。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped in June. That’s after a brief reprive in May from a monthslong downward slide. Uncertainty surrounding the job market, tariffs, that GOP tax bill, trouble in the Middle East — what’s not to be glum about? In this episode, we explain what could shift the mood. Plus: Soon-to-be college grads in China prepare for an unwelcoming job market, oil shipping prices grow even as oil prices fall, and Congress considers a new way to regulate crypto.

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