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cover of episode Geopolitics and oil prices

Geopolitics and oil prices

2025/6/23
logo of podcast Marketplace All-in-One

Marketplace All-in-One

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A
Adriana Llanos
D
Daniel's tourist
J
Jorge Gastelamundi
J
Jorge Leon
S
Surinjana Tiwari
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Jorge Leon: 作为能源咨询公司地缘政治分析主管,我认为霍尔木兹海峡至关重要,因为每天约有2000万桶石油通过这里。如果海峡关闭的威胁出现,油价可能会飙升至每桶100美元以上,地缘政治风险溢价会增加,并且来自中东的石油出口可能会大幅减少,这将对全球经济产生重大影响。 Surinjana Tiwari: 作为BBC记者,我观察到中国外交部对美国干预中东表示谴责,并强调波斯湾对国际商品和能源贸易的重要性。中国和伊朗是盟友,中国大量进口伊朗石油,约占伊朗石油出口的90%。尽管中国面临经济放缓,但其制造业对能源需求依然很高,因此中国在缓和地区紧张局势方面具有一定的影响力。

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Let's look at what's happening to oil prices after the US attacks on Iran. Live from the UK, this is the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Felicity Hanna, in for Leanna Byrne. Good morning.

There's more volatility for global oil prices following the US attacks on Iran over the weekend. The international benchmark Brent crude hit more than $80 for the first time in five months before falling back. Now there's a renewed focus on a key waterway, the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's state-run Press TV reported that Parliament had approved a plan to close the strait, but added that the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council.

Jorge Leon is head of geopolitical analysis at the energy consultancy Reustad. The importance of the strait is that around 20 million barrels per day of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day. So it is a very, very significant choke point today.

So if there is a threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, the first thing that we're likely to see is prices shooting up above $100 per barrel because of the increasing geopolitical risk premium, but also most likely losses of exports around the world, particularly coming from the Middle East.

Now the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from blocking the strait. The BBC's Surinjana Tiwari is in Tianjin in China, ahead of a World Economic Forum meeting. Hi, Surinjana. Hello.

So have China's leaders said anything or responded? We haven't heard anything yet apart from fairly standard Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemnation of the US intervention in the Middle East, saying how important the Persian Gulf is for international goods and energy trade and that China calls on the international community to

to intensify efforts to de-escalate tensions and prevent further regional turmoil. And what kind of leverage does China actually have to influence Iran?

Well, they are allies. And one of the reasons that they are is because China does import oil from Iran. It's estimated, it's hard to know exact figures, but it's estimated that China actually imports 90% of the oil that Iran exports to international markets.

And of course, China is still facing an economic slowdown. The property crisis is still bumping along and demand and consumer spending have not picked up either. So it's really focusing on exports, the manufacture of goods. And the manufacture of goods does require a lot of energy that comes from the kind of oil that China imports from Iran. So, Anjana, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you. Let's do the numbers.

The latest on those oil prices then. Brent crude is now trading at $77 after passing $80 earlier. Market moves have remained fairly modest in the last few hours. Japan's Nikkei closed down slightly and the Pan Europe stocks 600 has also slipped a little.

Europe has had its first heatwave of the summer, with temperatures well above seasonal average in the UK, France and Spain. The Spanish city of Seville has carried out a pilot aimed at naming heatwaves in order to raise public awareness and better prepare local economies. It uses an algorithm or formula that forecasts heatwaves and categorises them based on the potential impact. The BBC's Ashish Sharma reports.

In the summer, this city is one of the hottest in Spain and this has an impact on many local businesses, especially in tourism. Daniel gathers his group of 12 international tourists.

They're about to go on a three-hour bicycle tour of the city. We've been on two tours and the guides even say that the place shuts down in July and August. They were telling us that, saying there's nothing open, there's no point coming. The pilot scheme, the first of its kind, was called Prometeo.

By the time it ended last year, several severe heat waves had been identified and named in Seville. My name is Adriana Llanos and I'm the manager of Sea by Bike. So during wintertime and summertime, we focus on doing office work because we don't have many bookings. And during high season, as spring and fall...

We are usually only focused on tours because we have lots and lots of customers. So during summertime, what we do is changing our tours. So instead of starting the tour at 2.30, we start at 9 a.m. For us, it would be very useful to name the heat waves. That would mean that we are talking more about the heat waves. That way we could organize easier the changes we have to do and never cancel. We always stay in the shade. I know every single shade in town.

Really?

Heat waves don't have names unlike storms or hurricanes, which are also categorised. But for all natural weather phenomena, they can have the greatest impact on people's lives, on overall public health and the local economy. The algorithm was established by the Atlantic Council and worked upon in the city by the University of Seville in cooperation with the local government. Jorge Gastelamundi is the Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Climate Resilience Centre.

In Seville, people usually assume, you know, I'm used to hot, this is nothing new. But the fact that they were named alerted them that this was something probably different to what they were used to. We also found that women were more attuned to the fact that they needed to take action similar to more wealthy neighborhoods, as well as the elderly.

Were there any aspects of the project which you looked at afterwards, which you realise really could serve companies or local economies in some way? We realised that this same algorithm that connects all these different factors could be used for the insurance sector because they need triggers. They need to understand when they're insuring a particular route or service that they will have the right data to understand when they need to pay or when they don't need to pay. ♪

Heat waves are silent killers. They catch out the vulnerable and quietly devastate the economy through their impact on health. Finding ways to combat them, be it by naming them or categorising them, could be one answer to deal with the future in which our urban centres become even hotter. That was the BBC's Ashish Sharma. In the UK, I'm Felicity Hanna with the Marketplace Morning Report from the BBC World Service.

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