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cover of episode How do you plan money decisions with all this uncertainty?

How do you plan money decisions with all this uncertainty?

2025/4/10
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Marketplace All-in-One

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Davey Stevens
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Doug Shapiro
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Joe Shealy
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Russ Mould
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Russ Mould: 在充满经济政策不确定性的环境下,投资策略的核心在于保持耐心,避免被每日新闻所左右。切勿盲目承担超出自身风险承受能力的风险。成功的投资有赖于长期的积累,而非短期的投机。如果投资让你夜不能寐,则说明你可能承担了过多的风险,需要重新评估你的投资组合。 Russ Mould: 长期存在的政策不确定性会带来真实的经济衰退风险。对于企业管理者而言,这种不确定性使得决策变得异常艰难,他们难以预测贸易伙伴的政策走向,这可能会导致企业延缓投资,最终加剧经济放缓。 Davey Stevens: 中国消费者对鸡爪等产品的需求强劲,即使价格上涨,他们也可能愿意继续购买,因为这些产品对他们来说是美味佳肴。 Joe Shealy: 中国市场对美国猪肉产品的需求量巨大,几乎占到美国猪肉出口的60%。如果失去中国市场,将很难找到替代市场来弥补损失。虽然我们尝试开拓拉丁美洲和东南亚等市场,但这些市场的总需求量远不及中国。饲料成本的下降可以部分缓解关税带来的冲击,但农民的利润率仍然很低,并且面临其他成本的上升,例如建筑材料、保险和燃料成本。 Doug Shapiro: 证书教育的增长是由于雇主对拥有特定技能的劳动力的需求日益增长,以及学生对低成本、短期课程的偏好。证书能够更清晰地展现求职者掌握的技能,而相比于高等学位,证书的成本更低,学习时间也更短,一些证书课程只需几个月即可完成。

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This Marketplace podcast is supported by the University of Illinois' Gies College of Business. Earn a world-class MBA degree completely online at your own pace. Through our engaging online MBA program, you learn from esteemed faculty and network with classmates on a global scale without having to put your career on hold. Take your career to the next level by applying what you learn in real time. Get started at onlinemba.illinois.edu. ♪

How to plan money decisions when the economic rules change in a blink. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. After President Trump's abrupt U-turn on tariffs yesterday affecting most countries in the world but China, stock prices soared. The stock market posted its third biggest single-day jump since the Second World War, with the Nasdaq up 12 percent. Nasdaq futures are back down about 2 percent this morning.

Investors have just been reminded that the economic landscape can be painted over in an instant, with President Trump saying that he acted, quote, instinctively more than anything else. Russ Mould is investment director at the UK-based AJ Bell. Having to try and manage your money according to

policy which can change very quickly or a social media post which can appear even quicker is very, very difficult. So I think the secret is really, if you possibly can, not get dragged into the moment-to-moment, day-to-day news. If you've taken a little bit more risk than you feel comfortable with, maybe that's what you need to be checking for because in the end, investing is about patient accumulation overnight.

And if it's keeping you awake at night, then you probably have taken more risks than you would – than perhaps you thought and maybe that's what you should be checking on. Crude oil using the New York price is under $61 a barrel as we speak down this morning. That I think is in part a bet –

that some big economies around the world could be headed for an economic downturn amid all this uncertainty about, for instance, world trade. You must see risks of a downturn, Mr. Malt. I think the longer that we have this policy uncertainty, I think that's a very, very genuine risk. And I must admit, I'm glad I'm talking about this rather than actually running a company.

You've got an awful lot of different things to think about. You don't know at the moment from one day to the next whether America or one of your other potentially biggest trading partners is putting tariffs on or not. And that's going to be a really, really difficult thing for you to navigate. Under those circumstances, therefore, there has to be a risk that executives just sit on their hands and

Don't make that investment. Don't make that higher. And that could still lead to the slowdown that many people were fearing, like, say, Goldman Sachs, before the president decided to impose the 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs. Russ Mould, investment director at the UK-based investment platform, AJ Bell. Thank you very much. Okay. No, it's a pleasure to help.

President Trump said market jitters prompted him to bail on tariffs. In an apparent reference to market players, Trump said they were getting, quote, a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid. Yesterday, we had been reporting on strains in the bond market, but strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds yesterday also helped ease the agita. And the bond market is up this morning. The 10-year rate is down 4.3%.

And remember, the big U.S.-China tariffs remain. U.S. 125 percent, China 84 percent. Not a product U.S. farmers tend to sell in China and have trouble selling elsewhere. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer reports. Washington and Beijing are playing a game of chicken, and that includes chicken feet.

If U.S. products get too expensive in China, American farmers are worried about losing a key market for things like chicken feet that people in many other countries don't eat but the Chinese love. We very well could take a hit. Davey Stevens raises chickens in Clinton, Kentucky, specifically broilers for Pilgrim's Pride. So he doesn't sell directly to China, but he knows it's the market for chicken feet. He's hoping Chinese consumers love them so much...

they won't blink at higher prices. When you go somewhere in the supermarket to go to eat, if there's something you really want and it's a delicacy you're willing to pay and you've got the money, you're probably going to pay for it. When the emerging middle class I've seen evolve into China, maybe the consumer is willing to pay more. Pig parts that don't appeal to Western palates are also big in China. Snouts, feet, ears, organs, those types of products.

That's Joe Shealy, spokesman for the U.S. Meat Export Federation, a trade group. He says U.S. pork will now face a total 131 percent import tax in China. China imports almost 60 percent of U.S. pork parts, so it would be a difficult market to replace, although Shealy says they've tried. We have made an effort to, for example, reduce

ramp up our promotion of those types of products in Latin America, Southeast Asia, places like that. Unfortunately, you piece those markets together, they really don't add up to what China is able to take.

Sheely says the cost of animal feed is falling, driven by lower prices for corn and soybean meal, and that could partially cushion the blow if the Chinese market for pork and pig parts took a big hit from tariffs. But farmers don't have a huge profit margin because they're paying higher prices for other things. You're looking at everything from building materials to insurance to fuel costs.

Add the uncertainty of the tariff war to the mix, and Sheely says it's no wonder that farmers are concerned about losing a key market for products that much of the world doesn't want. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer for Marketplace.

You can get a bachelor's degree or, cheaper and faster, a certificate. A report out today from the National Student Clearinghouse finds students earning certificates rose 11 percent last academic year, while the full bachelor's degree number fell slightly. Here's Marketplace's Stephanie Hughes.

When Alexander Treya left the Army last spring after 10 years of service, he felt kind of scared. It's a pretty daunting thing to kind of restart over again at 30, but I knew that I wanted to work with my hands. So he enrolled in the HVAC program at the Tennessee College of Applied Technology in Nashville. He

He expects to graduate in January with multiple certificates, ready to enter the workforce as an HVAC technician. And Doug Shapiro, who leads the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, says the workforce is ready for him. There's been growing demand for workers with these types of vocational skills. Shapiro says the jump in certificates is being driven by employers who want to be certain the workers they're hiring have a specific skill set.

Certificates really put a finer point on that and say, here are the things that this person has actually learned to do. Shapiro says students are also attracted to certificates lower cost and shorter time frame compared to higher degrees. Some take just a few months. I'm Stephanie Hughes for Marketplace. Thanks, Stephanie. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio. It's the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

If there's one thing we know about social media, it's that misinformation is everywhere, especially when it comes to personal finance. Financially Inclined from Marketplace is a podcast you can trust to help you get serious about your money so you can build a life you've always dreamed of.

I'm the host, Janelia Espinal, and each week I ask experts important money questions, like how to negotiate job offers, how to choose a college that you can afford, and how to talk about money with friends and family. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts.