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cover of episode Reading the labor market tea leaves

Reading the labor market tea leaves

2025/7/2
logo of podcast Marketplace All-in-One

Marketplace All-in-One
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Benny Ashburn
B
Brian Colton
B
Brian Duncan
G
George Perks
J
Jennifer Lee
J
John Diamond
J
Jonas Golterman
J
Joseph Gagneau
L
Laura Veldkamp
M
MTL Hunter
M
Martha Gimbel
M
Menzi Chen
N
Nick Tremper
S
Scott Ladner
20多年专业交易和投资经验，现任Horizon Investments投资管理部门负责人和投资委员会主席。
Topics
Laura Veldkamp: 关税导致商品价格上涨，消费者购买减少，这直接影响了就业市场。销售人员、送货人员和清洁工等岗位的需求都会因此下降。在经济放缓的大环境下，企业对劳动力的需求也会相应减少，因此没有必要为留住员工而提高工资。 Menzi Chen: 服务业的主要成本是劳动力，所以工资增长放缓会显著影响服务业的成本。但同时，员工可能会要求更高的工资来应对关税带来的生活成本上涨。此外，某些行业的劳动力短缺，如新鲜果蔬行业，也会推高劳动力成本，最终导致商品价格上涨。 George Perks: 尽管存在劳动力供应减少的问题，但劳动力需求正在改善。初请失业金数据并未显示劳动力需求急剧下降，其他更慢的数据甚至显示出改善的迹象。劳动力需求触底反弹，劳动力供应持续萎缩，这实际上应该为工资增长创造一个积极的背景。 Justin Ho: 综合来看，关税和劳动力成本共同影响着消费支出，进而影响整体经济增长。虽然关税直接影响商品价格，但劳动力成本对服务业的影响更为显著。劳动力市场的供需关系、工资水平以及企业应对成本上涨的策略，都将对经济走向产生重要影响。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the connection between the slowdown in consumer spending, largely due to tariffs and the cost of labor, and its potential impact on the labor market. Experts weigh in on the possible effects on hiring, wages, and overall economic growth.
  • Slowdown in consumer spending is impacting economic growth.
  • Tariffs and the cost of labor are contributing factors to the spending slowdown.
  • Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the US economy.
  • Reduced demand for goods leads to decreased demand for labor across various sectors.

Shownotes Transcript

Consumer spending sputtered in May, likely thanks to tariffs and related uncertainty. Not only does that give us a clue as to where GDP is headed, it could also help us predict the labor market's next move. Later in this episode: Slowed hiring could have a silver lining (depending on your perspective), the U.S. dollar is down 10% so far this year, and we visit a pop-up brewery focused on racial equity.

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