So, when will we see those tariff price hikes?
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Without federal funds, local public radio stations across the country will struggle to acquire and broadcast Marketplace, and that has a huge impact on our bottom line. So we are coming to you at this critical time. Individual donations are so important right now, so please give to your local station if you can, and please donate directly to Marketplace as well. Go to marketplace.org slash donate to do that, and thanks. Yes, we got a good inflation report today. Also, yes,

It was a lagging indicator, gang. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. I'm Kyle Rizdahl. It is Tuesday today, May 13th. Good as always to have you along, everybody. We begin today's program with an asterisk, a footnote, a brief diversion, if you will, to acknowledge and explain that the April Consumer Price Index that came out this morning is

Ain't really all that. You know why? I'm sure it doesn't capture in any meaningful way the tariff chaos that started on April the 2nd. But with that caveat out of the way, there are a couple of points to make. First of all, inflation for the past three months has been running at 2.1 percent. This close to where Jay Powell and the gang at the Fed want it to be. Second, and also third,

When you break the CPI down by category, some of the sectors hit hardest by tariffs, saw price declines from last month, including apparel, also used cars and trucks. Marketplace's Kristen Schwab gets us going with why consumers are paying less for some goods, even as importers are paying more.

Businesses have been preparing for the possibility of tariffs for a long time, since before they were announced, before President Trump took office, even before he won the election. Companies already front-loaded a lot of their purchases, so you're not going to see the lift in those categories. Suturita Kadali, a retail analyst at Forrester, says stocking up is easier in industries like apparel, and some retailers and manufacturers may have even overstocked.

Companies may have too much that's going to run out of season pretty soon, and they are discounting that merchandise. Kadali says the dreaded pricing in from tariffs probably won't happen until the end of summer, just in time for back to school. Sorry, parents.

Meanwhile, Kevin Mixer, an automotive analyst at Gartner, says most carmakers will probably wait to raise prices until they release new models this fall. There's a lot of concern and consternation about consumer confidence. Shoppers are worried about making big purchases if a recession is coming. And let's not forget, it is still expensive to borrow money. Interest rates are still fairly high. So dealerships are offering discounts to offset those rates.

All the policy uncertainty means companies are holding off on hiking prices as long as they possibly can, says Nirupama Rao, an economist at the University of Michigan. Firms change prices in large increments. So they're not going to reflect that higher cost by changing a price from $15 to $16.17. And another dollar here and another dollar there. They would rather do it in one big lump sum. But with greater certainty, more of them will tip.

Rao says we might see some price increases in May's CPI, maybe a little more in June. And then eventually, if trade policy solidifies, it'll be more like a rush where lots of companies will increase prices all at once.

I'm Kristen Schwab for Marketplace. The National Federation of Independent Business released its survey of small business optimism this morning. And once you factor in the tariff and intended uncertainty, it'll come as no surprise that the index fell in April to its weakest reading since October.

But to hear what exactly small business owners are saying these days, we've done a survey of our own. Here is the first of our regulars, Dylan Demery, the owner of She's Fly. That's a women's online fly fishing company based in Fort Collins, Colorado. For the last few months, we've definitely seen a change in business from last year. Our sales overall this time compared to the same time last year, it's down around 20%.

But the season is just getting started. We are starting to see our classes and our retreats fill up. As far as buying gear,

I do see hesitation there. I think a lot of what I'm noticing with our customers is that people are uncertain. And so they're saving their money. They're trying to hold back and see where they're going to have to make cuts. I'm feeling that personally. And I know that I'm seeing it across the board with our customers as well.

I haven't changed any of my pricing. Actually, I'm seeing some sales on things across the industry that I'm trying to match on my site. So I've been trying to update what sales are happening from other suppliers and understanding how we can implement those sales for our customers. We're going to keep trying. We're going to keep trying to get this company where we want it to be. We celebrate five years in August, and we're hoping it's going to be around for another five years. ♪

Dylan Demery, the owner of She's Fly in Fort Collins, Colorado. Wall Street on this Tuesday, the corner of Wall Street and Broad Knot in Colorado. A little of this, a little of that. A whole lot of tech. We'll have the details when we do the numbers. ♪♪♪

So, yes, there is less of a tariff risk to this economy today than there was 48 hours ago. Less, not zero. The underlying uncertainty that shippers and wholesalers and retailers and manufacturers have to try to plan around as they try to figure out what's available and what costs what is still very much there.

Because almost no matter what happens 90 days from yesterday, a whole lot of the tariff chaos is already baked in. Marketplace's Sabri Beneshour took our latest stroll through America's supply chain.

Let's start at the ports. Last week, ships coming into the Port of L.A. were down by a third, from China down by 60 percent. This week? What we are seeing is a huge uptick in ocean bookings. Bernie Hart is a vice president at logistics firm Flexport. Whenever you get huge peaks and valleys like this, there are stressors on the supply chain.

Boats were rerouted, truckers let go, containers not where you need them. It could all mean delays and higher shipping prices at the next stop along the supply chain. Manufacturers. My name is Heather Bickford. I am chief operating officer for Death by Audio FX.

Death by Audio makes all kinds of sound special effect equipment. A week ago, the company canceled plans to introduce a new effects pedal. Now, it's a go. We were like, pull the trigger. Let's, like, order everything that we had kind of been holding off on. They're trying to take out a loan to order as much as possible during the tariff truce. A lot depends on how long things will take to arrive. It's still all just not very, yeah, interesting.

Good for business as far as, you know, strategizing and planning. Same goes further down the supply chain for the wholesalers. My name is Chris Overholt. I am the president and founder of Namu Baru Incorporated. Overholt sells religious jewelry wholesale. Prayer beads, Hindu and Buddhist malas, and actual gemstone rosaries.

Mostly from China and Korea. When I talked to him on Friday, when tariffs on China were 145%, he was ready to look for a new job. It's literally killing my business. I can't bring any orders in. Now,

Now that tariffs have been slashed to 30%, things are moving again. I am going to bring in product now because I can't wait for the hope that it's going to drop lower. 30% tariffs mean he's still raising his prices on new stuff, but at least it's moving. But here's the thing. He's still going to look for a new job.

You know, I just don't know where things are going. I can't play Russian roulette, right, with our family's income. Another step down the supply chain are the retailers like Jennifer Luna. She owns the Curious Bear and Toy Bookshop near Tacoma, Washington. I'm leaving in like five minutes to go up to Seattle to do two days worth of buying for Christmas for the toy store.

She may need to open up a new credit card to get as much as possible. Actual shortages are looking less likely, but prices and availability are up in the air. We really don't know what to expect because I don't think the vendors really know either. It's going to be a mess. Last week, Luna canceled plans to open up a second toy store. This week, those plans are still canceled.

I'm not even going to entertain that idea until things have drastically changed. You know, we could wake up tomorrow and the president has gotten in an argument with somebody and it could all change. Luna says it's a risk she's not willing to take. In New York, I'm Sabri Beneshour for Marketplace.

Here's a risk you shouldn't take, missing an episode of this program. If you do happen to not be able to catch us on the air, we've got a podcast for you if you need it. Marketplace.org or the podcast platform of your choice. Just follow us there. ♪♪♪

The S&P 500 is, as even casual observers might intuit, an index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in this economy. Not the biggest, not the most profitable, just leading, as determined by a committee established by the parent company S&P Global.

Now, 500 means 500, not 499, not 501. So when that committee decides to drop a company, it has to slide another one in in its place, which is going to happen next Monday. Out goes Discover Financial Services, the credit card company that's being bought by Capital One. And in goes Coinbase, the crypto trading platform that at the moment has a market capitalization north of $60 billion. Okay.

Marketplace Matt Levin has more on what that might mean for crypto and, by the way, what it might mean for your retirement accounts.

American University law professor Hillary Allen has published several papers on the threats cryptocurrencies pose to the financial system. She's testified before Congress in favor of stronger crypto regulation. But just like millions of other Americans, she also has money in an index fund that tracks the S&P 500, which means soon she'll own Coinbase stock. Oh, now this is profoundly uncomfortable. Yes, yes, I will.

Hillary Allen, Coinbase shareholder, does not have a ring to it. Coinbase is the first crypto company to join the S&P 500, alongside Apple and Berkshire Hathaway. Allen says that stamp of legitimacy is dangerous for a business that relies on such famously volatile assets. Because what this signals to me is that the integration of crypto and traditional finance, which is something I've been warning against for years...

is coming closer and closer to fruition. For crypto enthusiasts, though, that's kind of the whole point. Kristen Smith heads the crypto advocacy group Blockchain Association. There's some validation here. We have Coinbase's inclusion in the S&P 500. It reinforces the idea that crypto isn't just a niche market. It was just four months ago that Coinbase was the target of a major SEC lawsuit, which the Trump administration dropped. It's

Smith says this latest milestone. I'm not sure if it would have happened if Trump hadn't been elected.

At its core, Coinbase is a website where people go to buy and sell crypto. Very similar to what Sam Bankman-Fried's defunct FTX used to do, which sounds worrying. But crypto defenders will point out that unlike FTX, Coinbase is subject to U.S. regulations. Bruno Caratori at the crypto company Hashdex says at this point, the FTX scandal is kind of a distant memory. I don't think I've heard about FTX in a long while now. I think the general optimism

Crypto has returned. Coinbase did not respond to an interview request. I'm Matt Levin for Marketplace. Retailers in this economy, especially those of the small business variety, come in all shapes and sizes. Fly fishing to picture framing. Next up in our survey of our regulars, Eric Vaughn, owner of Eric's I've Been Framed in Detroit, Michigan.

Well, it's been pretty good, but I can see it's slowing up a little bit. We're not getting as many appointments as we normally get because we started doing appointments after the pandemic. But we're kind of lenient on that now. We're taking walk-ins.

I still have a part-time employee, and it's just me. And we've been maintaining, and this week was a little busy. We had quite a few things in. We've been doing a lot of diplomas, and we come up with creative ideas. These days, they are decorating the hats with different images and art and that kind of thing. So we've been doing a few of those.

We even had a client to bring four of her girlfriends in all at one time. All of them had kids that had graduated from college. That was one day we can get several projects going on one appointment. So that was pretty cool. Eric Vaughn, Eric's I've Been Framed is the Shop, Detroit, Michigan is the City.

Coming up. Business has literally been booming the last few months. Take a hike. Everybody else is. First, though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials up 269 points today. Six-tenths percent closed at 42,140. The Nasdaq up 301, 1.6%.

19,010. The S&P 500 added 42 points, about seven-tenths percent, 58 and 86. S&P 500 by the by, positive for the year as of today. Hey, did you know today is International Hummus Day? First of all, yes, there is such a thing. Celebrate the Middle Eastern chickpea dip. Sabra, an Israeli-American company whose hummus you can probably find in your local supermarket, is wholly owned by none other than PepsiCo.

PepsiCo stock down today 1%. Coca-Cola does not own a hummus brand, but does own Dasani and Powerade and Minute Maid. Coca-Cola shed eight-tenths of 1%.

Big weapons and arms deal, defense deal out of the Middle East today. Lockheed Martin down 2.8 percent. General Dynamics down 1.1 percent. Boeing lifted up two and four tenths of one percent today. Northrop Grumman not to be left out off 1.8 percent. Bonds flat a shield on the 10-year T-note 4.47 percent. You're listening to Marketplace.

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This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl. Be clear. Always consult your own financial advisor on matters of personal finance. But should you happen to have checked your retirement account lately?

Well, the standard advice during volatile times like these is to look away. But there is a reason you might want to crack open your portfolio. Climate change, because how your money is invested could put your savings at risk and even contribute to the climate crisis. Marketplace's Amy Scott, the host of our Climate Solutions podcast, How We Survive, explains.

Back in 2017, Alex Wright Gladstein was running a clean tech company called IR Labs. And she wanted to offer her employees a climate-friendly option in their retirement plan, but had a hard time finding any. And when I finally got offered some options by our 401k advisors...

They were offering ESG options. ESG investing considers environmental, social, and governance factors like climate change that can affect a company's long-term value. And I had never heard the term ESG before. I didn't know what it meant.

But I looked up the funds and I saw that they were invested in fossil fuel companies. And I was like, OK, I don't know what ESG means, but I don't think it means climate friendly. So Alex decided to create her own index fund, the Sphere 500 Climate Fund. The key thing we do is exclude fossil fuel companies. The Sphere 500 is made up of the top 500 companies in the U.S. by market value minus fossil fuel companies.

It also excludes some other businesses like tobacco, private prisons and weapons manufacturers. Alex says fear also uses its shareholder voice to push for change at the companies it does invest in, voting its shares in favor of climate-friendly proposals. Most people don't think about this, but...

We're having our shares voted on our behalf by fund managers who are voting against climate-related shareholder proposals 98% of the time. More than half of U.S. households have a dedicated retirement account, like a 401k or IRA, according to the Federal Reserve. And Alex says there's a lot of invisible power in those accounts. It turns out that...

Moving your investments to a climate-friendly investment option is the single most impactful thing that the average American can do for climate change.

Sphere estimates moving $100,000 from an S&P 500 index fund to a fossil-free fund would save about 22 tons of greenhouse gas emissions. It's more impactful than the combination of going vegan, never flying again, driving an electric car, putting solar on your house. All this made me wonder about my own savings. Sphere's

Sphere has a tool online where you can look up the carbon impact of your workplace retirement plan. So I type in Marketplace's parent company and scroll through the report, which is based on tax filings from 2021. $19 million. This is how much American Public Media Group employees have invested in fossil fuel companies through their retirement savings plan. That's about 10% of our collective assets.

And then it compares us to some other companies. So Walmart is similar. Apple's actually lower, 8.1%. But of course, as that's a percentage, the actual money would be significantly more. If all APMG employees divested from fossil fuels, the website tells me, it would be like taking 7,800 cars off the road each year.

In a statement, APMG says its retirement plan broker estimates 3% of assets, or about $6 million in the plan, are in the energy sector, acknowledging other calculations may be higher. And that, as with a lot of workplace plans, employees have a range of funds to choose from, including ESG options.

To check out the individual funds in my own portfolio, Alex Wright Gladstein points me to another website, FossilFreeFunds.org. All right. Fidelity International Index. I'm going to look up that. Oh, it gets an F. Yeah. Oh, shoot. It's invested in companies including Shell and Total and BP. Okay.

I poke around a bit more, try out a few more index funds that I have. It doesn't get much better. Fossil Free Funds has a list of greener alternatives, something Alex says more people are looking for these days. Especially since the most recent election, I think...

People realized they can't rely on the government to save us when it comes to climate change. And so they've been turning to what they can do. Alex says that doesn't necessarily mean losing out on returns. Fossil fuel stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 in seven of the past 10 years.

And though many so-called green funds charge higher management fees, the Sphere 500 has low fees similar to any S&P 500 index fund. And it performs about as well. I'm Amy Scott for Marketplace. Amy and crew go all in on ESG in the latest season of How We Survive. It is on your favorite podcast app, of course.

Eric Vaughn was telling us about the goods side of small businesses in this economy, selling picture frames. Thing is, most of what this economy does is services. So last up from our regulars today, Lisa Pena, owner of Urban Hikes Kansas City.

Business has literally been booming the last few months. Tours have been very full this time of the year because of our weather. Our weather has been really nice. It's not too hot and not too cold. We have been selling out of a lot of our tours, especially our hilly northeast urban hike, our wine and cheese urban hikes, and some of our other tours as well.

Right now we have 10 guides, 10 urban hike guides, which I am really proud to say.

I'm very much looking forward to seeing my business continue to grow. This year, we have had a lot of student hikes and I've had some meetings with local school districts so that we can implement even more student hikes. I'm also looking forward to see it grow in the corporate world. We've had really good satisfaction when we have corporate urban hikes and I foresee a lot more corporate groups coming back to us for urban hikes and then new corporate groups coming to us for the first time.

All you need is a good pair of shoes, right? Lisa Pena there, the owner of Urban Hikes Kansas City. You can do Kansas City, Kansas, or you can do Kansas City, Mo.

This final note on the way out today in which corporate America comes to geopolitics in a somewhat unexpected way. President Trump is in the Middle East this week, as you have surely heard. Saudi Arabia was his first stop today. A bevy of big name CEOs went with him. Not there, though, was the CEO of McDonald's. But his Saudi hosts did arrange for something arguably better, a fully operational McDonald's mobile unit at his beck and call.

Talk about knowing your audience, right? Our digital and on-demand team includes Jordan Mangy, Dylan Mietten, Janet Nguyen, Olga Oxman, Virginia K. Smith, and Tony Wagner. Francesca Levy is the executive director of digital and on-demand. And I'm Kai Risdahl. We will see you tomorrow, everybody. This is APM.

We live in a world where the news is at our fingertips, where we're one click or swipe away from the latest headlines. But how often do we stop swiping and scrolling and just listen? It's the difference between knowing what's in the headlines and understanding how it got there. I'm Malika Bilal, and this is The Take, Al Jazeera's daily news podcast, where we bring you the context and the people behind the global stories that matter. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts.