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Kai Ryssdal
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Kristen Schwab
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Kyle Rizdahl
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Matt Levin
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Sabree Beneshour
Kyle Rizdahl: 我关注到美联储主席鲍威尔对当前经济形势的担忧，他暗示了滞胀的风险。关税导致通货膨胀上升和经济放缓，进而导致失业率上升，这使得美联储进退两难。美联储目前正采取观望态度，不会急于采取行动。鲍威尔还提到特朗普政府已经开始就关税问题进行谈判。美国财政部长即将与中国副总理会面，旨在缓和紧张局势，但鉴于美国政府此前声明不考虑取消关税，谈判结果难以预测。当前的关税水平正在产生实际影响，导致货架空空、物价上涨和政治不满。根据历史经验，任何实质性进展都需要时间。特朗普政府的目标和让步不明确，这给谈判带来了不确定性。
Sabree Beneshour: 我认为此次会谈更有可能达成一项表面协议，涉及一些采购协议，让美国能够宣称取得了一些成果，然后暂时退让。要取得更多实质性进展，需要更长的时间。
Kai Ryssdal: 尽管经济不确定性依然存在，但美国公司正在逐渐回归公司债券市场。美国公司正在欧洲发行欧元债券，因为在欧洲借贷比在美国更具吸引力。在欧洲发行债券的美国公司通常是大型知名企业，他们在欧洲拥有大量业务，并能获得大量的欧元利润。欧洲央行大幅降息，使得欧元债券对美国公司更具吸引力。美国公司正在评估在何处以最优惠的融资水平筹集所需资金。欧洲的借贷成本比美国低得多，美元兑欧元汇率的下降也是促使公司在欧洲发行债券的因素之一。预计未来几个月美国公司发行的欧元债券数量将创下纪录。
Matt Levin: 企业正在努力寻找向客户传达因关税导致价格上涨的坏消息的最佳方式。一些公司通过电子邮件向客户解释关税对价格的影响；一些公司选择不提高现有库存商品的价格；一位企业主通过视频向客户解释关税对价格的影响，并表示公司将尽力吸收部分成本；一位企业主在向客户解释关税问题时，努力保持冷静和安慰；一位企业主收到了客户关于关税和在中国生产产品的负面评论；一位企业主选择不利用关税作为促销手段；一位企业主认为，大多数客户能够接受价格上涨；一位企业主选择直接提高价格，并放弃试图让价格上涨更容易被接受。
Kristen Schwab: 一位19岁的年轻母亲正在努力独自抚养孩子并维持生计，为了更好地照顾孩子，她正在搬到离亲戚更近的地方。她在购买家具时感到经济压力，但她作为一名重型设备操作员，热爱自己的工作，并为自己的成就感到自豪。她对经济状况的看法相对乐观，因为她认为工资上涨与通货膨胀相平衡，尽管面临挑战，她对未来充满希望，认为生活会越来越好。
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Kyle Rizdahl: 'Certainly the risks to higher inflation, higher unemployment have have increased. And if that's what we do see, if the tariffs are ultimately put in place at those levels, which we don't know, then then we will see we won't see further progress toward our goals.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'Higher inflation because of the tariffs and a slowing economy. That's higher unemployment, right? Because of the tariffs have the central bank between a rock and a very hard place because the policy prescription, the interest rate move to fix one of those scenarios is exactly the opposite of the fix for the other.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'Hold your horses. We're in a good position to wait and see is the thing. We don't have to be in a hurry. The economy has been resilient and is doing fairly well. Our policy is well positioned. The costs of waiting to see further are fairly low, we think.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'Chirpal noted a time or two in his press conference that the Trump administration is starting negotiations over his tariffs, starting indeed.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'Treasury Secretary Scott Besant's on his way to Geneva tomorrow, where he's going to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Li-Fang. Besant said his primary goal in these meetings is to de-escalate things. But given the statement from Besant's boss this morning that he's not considering pulling back from his 145 percent tariffs, no, was the answer to the question. It is anybody's guess how these talks are going to go.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'The U.S. has backed itself and China into a corner leading up to these talks. The level of tariffs we have right now are having real effects. ... That's going to show up as empty shelves, higher prices, and that translates into political annoyance, to put it mildly.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'On the Chinese side, this state of trade disruption is already leading to layoffs, to employment problems. So out of all the thorny issues between the U.S. and China, from IP theft to industrial policy, just walking back the tariffs on one another is going to be the top priority, ... You don't think about these long-term structural issues when your focus is on these short-term problems.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'If history is a guide, anything substantial will take time. If you look at the first round of negotiations between U.S. and China back in 2018, it took almost two years to reach the first round deal.'
Kyle Rizdahl: 'That deal had China promising to buy a lot more U.S. goods, which it didn't end up doing. And the final agreement ended up skirting the most difficult issues. President Trump often complains about the U.S. trade deficit with China. But beyond that, it's unclear what the Trump administration's bottom line is. What do they really want from China? And secondly, what are they prepared to give?'
Sabree Beneshour: 'It's more likely to be, frankly, a bit of a cosmetic deal that involves some purchase agreements that gives the U.S. the ability to say we got something and then stand down. Anything more is going to take longer than a week.'
Kai Ryssdal: 'American companies, Justin Ho reported for us yesterday, are starting to inch back into the corporate bond market, despite all the uncertainty around basically everything in this economy.'
Kai Ryssdal: 'And in our news meeting this morning, Justin told us a couple of his sources had pointed out that companies haven't just been issuing bonds here in the United States. Alphabet, for instance, sold more than $7.5 billion worth of euro bonds. So in today's Dispatch from the Wilds of the Global Bond Market, Justin reports that borrowing money in Europe is looking pretty attractive these days.'
Kai Ryssdal: 'American companies that issue bonds in Europe are typically big household names. Think T-Mobile, Alphabet, iBeans. IBM. So they would have a large need for capital and be, you know, some notoriety or at least familiarity with European investors. ...Those companies could bring those euros back home, but they'd have to convert them to dollars and deal with a fluctuating exchange rate.'
Kai Ryssdal: 'But if they issue euro bonds... You can use the European profits that are in euros to pay off the interest and principal on that European debt versus having to convert it back to U.S. dollars. Euro bonds are particularly attractive right now, thanks to the European Central Bank. The ECB has cut rates quite significantly. And by contrast, the Fed was cutting rates, and they've subsequently been on hold again.'
Kai Ryssdal: 'That's Winnie Caesar, head of strategy at CreditSites. She says big American companies with good credit ratings? These companies are assessing, you know, where do I see the strongest ability to raise the amount of capital I need at the most most attractive financing level possible.'
Kai Ryssdal: 'And right now, borrowing costs in Europe are almost two percentage points cheaper than in the U.S. That is a massive motivating factor right now. There can be some significant cost savings. One more factor motivating companies to issue euro bonds, the value of the dollar has been falling relative to the euro. One way you can hedge against that risk, of course, is borrowing in another currency. The euro is'
Kai Ryssdal: 'Lowe says he expects the amount of euro bonds issued by American companies to hit a record within the next few months.'
Matt Levin: 'Your inbox over the past month has probably been filled with emails like these. To our up-a-baby family. They make strollers and car seats. As parents who care deeply about the future, we believe in being open and honest. Like many of you, we've been closely following the tariff news. Here's one from Room and Board. Hello. In recent weeks, we've heard questions from many of you about how and when tariffs might impact furniture prices.'
Matt Levin: 'Or this email from a small audio gear maker in Massachusetts that goes by the name Outlaw Audio. Let's cut to the chase. You've seen the headlines about companies preemptively increasing prices thanks to tariffs. We're here to remind you that we are not jacking up the price on gear that's already on our shelves. That's not the Outlaw way.'
Matt Levin: 'I want you to know we're not simply going to pass through these costs to you without a fight. ... We're being thoughtful and are trying to find where we can make savings to help soften the blow.'
Matt Levin: 'I felt like I could cry, and I didn't. I think there was one point where my voice went a little bit, but I was feeling all the feels. I mean, you know, it's been hard. I mean, it's just been hard. Tomlinson didn't want her tariff video to be the source of any stress. Her customers had enough of that.'
Matt Levin: 'OK, so here's a mean one. Jacob Sandowski is co-founder of Super Cubes. They make accessories for freezing leftovers. You should quit making your products in China. He's reading a response to the email he sent out about raising prices. Don't whine about tariffs when it's your fault for making your crap in China. It's disgusting and I will never buy your product ever. Losers.'
Matt Levin: 'Sandowski says the positive responses far outnumbered the mean ones. Supercube sales were four times higher the day the company's email went out compared to the day before. And that's without any tariffs are coming by now subject line or tariff 2025 discount code promotion. While other companies have gone that route, Sandowski says he didn't really think about imploring customers to buy his non-tariffed inventory.'
Matt Levin: 'If the tariffs remain where they're at, Sandowski says the price of a SuperCube tray may go up from 20 bucks to 25 bucks. That'll hurt sales, but most customers can probably swallow it.'
Matt Levin: 'So we just raised the price on our lofty lamp from $275 to $450. ... I'm resigned to just not selling a lot of lamps during this time.'
Kristen Schwab: 'I actually just signed my lease officially last night. I mean, it's just me and my son, you know, um, Being a single mom and trying to make your own living and move out on your own, it's not easy.'
Kristen Schwab: 'Pilrain has a two-and-a-half-year-old son named Isaac. He's in the back seat watching cartoons. She had him when she was 17, during her senior year of high school. Isaac's dad is not involved, so Pilrain's dad babysits when he can. But part of the reason she's moving is to be closer to aunts and uncles who have more time to help.'
Kristen Schwab: 'She plops down on a few beds and glances at the price tags. The one she loves is over three grand. Like, I'm definitely, yeah, I'm willing to pay like a decent penny. But yeah, I don't think we'll be doing that.'
Kristen Schwab: 'Now, like driving by and seeing the buses driving on the bridge or the first time I drove my car over it, it's just like this crazy, like, wow, like I helped build this. Like, that's insane, you know?'
Kristen Schwab: 'It's kind of like blissful ignorance, almost. Like, I wasn't buying my own groceries as a teenager, you know? Like, when I was a teenager, I was buying my own groceries when things were a lot cheaper. So it just, it feels normal, you know, like things are expensive. Life is hard. You know, that's just the way things are.'
Kristen Schwab: 'Things are only going to get easier. And I have that security that things are only looking up from here.'
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