When Shift Happens: Will The Banana Zone Make You Rich? w/ Kevin Follonier
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So the banana went from the table to your sweater. You predict the banana zone, which is script the Prices. Banana in five months now still be still nothing is the bananas was killing .

the room with us. I guess we'll find out .

today is .

with his riva on to many people achieve .

ancient freedom. Crypto, are you still confident about the great sole trade for this cycle?

The question is whether the next chosen one out performs is so significantly that you're forced to take that trade generally? IT should just continue. I don't want to because IT doesn't happen.

This might, but you can probably say that bitcoin means of just for the fun of that is all about trading intentions, stupidity and it's about former. The question is, is this cycle going to be the cycle? The point?

yes. Why do you go out there and take the risk of being publicly wrong on something like the bananas zone? That is everybody's dreams at home?

Look, it's fucking terrifying. Things are so fucked for so many people. People can't afford a house they are not having. Kids are not living in their own place. I would have to share a place.

All of that stuff showing how stress people are, asking them to say ve and make ten percent returns on the S M. P. Five hundred for the next twenty years just aren't GTA cut IT. And so I want to make sure that if I make money out, this nobody turns around to me and says, all, why didn't wait brow .

describe to the new cycle and chicken .

fish in the church without refer to billions, refer to real even he's laughing.

laughing .

minutes just.

Brilliant morning, fresh monday .

and yeah day woke .

up in middle the night .

pasta on a hotel room, fell a sleep for now and immediate have to go to to go to through an hour podcast and then you brought the time forward I was going to have a sister and you ruin that as well as your foot.

I brought some some .

wine .

here to do so we have um an old vine, have that our partner living labs selector specifically .

for you to two .

thousand. So it's not only a partner of when shift happens, but you're under board. Why delicious?

By the way, I know you do. I love wine and also love dave and genre who coffered IT. But I can see web three, for me, has not advantage in loyalty. Wine has this weird world where your selling wine as a producer and then come to disappear into the east of the ten years, and then somebody drink IT, of which you have no idea who they are.

And web three, by a technical zing, the label, or that the technical ze core, essentially allows you to then know whether wine goes, who owns IT and when he gets drunk, which gives the grow a lot of information. But us, as consumers, token ization can create behavior incentives, says not incentivising you. Well, there is inter incentivising you to drink, but also to record the fact you ve opened IT because then the wine grow knows that you like real her and you buy this kind of Price range and drink at this kind of age.

They now know that you're their customer and they can get rid all the middle then and intensifies you directly by giving your offers or special promotions stuff like that, that point number one. So I think that is interesting. I've been expLoring loyalty and that kind of web three world of consumer incentives. Also the fact that wine is a logistical business and you know, wine spoils over time.

You need to know where it's been for provenance and Price when you're dealing with fine wines, you on the house stored who stored IT, when I buy tons wine in the con ones and you might spend two hundred dollars a bottle and his ruined because yes, the growing might be amazing, but you have no idea who had IT since. This way, we can stop proving things out on chain. Also, IT allows people to maybe manage inventory Better where you can cocoa ize the inventory. So there's a bunch of different things, I think are really interesting for all industries that the vent is doing that I want to see succeed.

meet magic, the home of with three. They are getting into the token trading space and addition to N, F, ties to become a super debt. You can do everything cross chain all in one place.

They're solving U X, issues by building products across every chain ecosystem, swap, borrowing and lending N F T perps and more all semester cross chain. Instead of hopping between countless sides and handling multiple wallet, just use magic eaten plus. The M E token is coming out this quarter from the M E foundation.

If you ve used any of their protocols, you can claim up. So check out magic eating today and watch them become a super dep. In the home of web three in real time. Got a real vision dot comfort slife magic. For more information.

you mentioned the different people involved in the kind of like wine supply chain, obviously were the kind of end consumer and you said were instant device to drink some some sort. There's actually A N, F, C there. You have .

your phones as well.

So there's an N, F, C there. And you can basically claim your talkers, for drinking this wine。 I opened the bottle before through my up, and you should be able to just stop the N, F, C, and then clam up.

But yes, I just tap IT. And then he claims IT.

I think you can also just just have the finding.

let's say yeah that we can strike into my APP. We got very good internet, but yes, IT loaded up if they knows that we've opened this and then there's information that stored on chain. Now IT doesn't only apply to wine.

If this technology works, IT applies to so many things where you can break the barrier between producer and consumer, so everything can come direct, which means it's cheaper. You can be rewarded for loyalty directly. What you do could be clothing, could be all sorts of things. But you know, wine is a very good song.

How are you doing?

Pop, big, tired. great.

So we were on that on diary of the u this morning out Stephen ballet. I was that for experience.

you know, wasn't wordly different. Excuse me to our conversation. IT was different in terms of what we talked about, but a similar kind of style that, that was a free ranging, long and very open discussion.

So you know, I don't mind being kind of brutally honest. So IT was actually IT was good. IT was just IT was just a nice conversation. And before you three and half hours ago.

SHE spent one or two weeks three years ago with Stephen and and .

actually he was starting to become not big yet.

but he was very focused on the U. K. market. Yeah and he was doing a for football players. And I was actually kind of looking at OK interesting like you're doing I am joe g right and there was less free member thousand twenty one not big yet like three men now like I K i'm going to know what kind of closely what is doing because he seems to be ond to something. And the in the next year he kind of blew up.

And then I realize all man, people don't understand broadcasting if you do IT the right way to massive opportunity. And it's something that then was thinking, I mean, obvious his huge right and in doing health and business and everything was thinking, if I do something similar, I have come of two models, what is doing? But also next, three men, like very deep conversations.

And if apply this in to cypher could be something really interesting because of the leverage age of cry pal, right? And so a year and half later, I just thought bottom of the best market after if this question was talking that at the moment, to start to do something similar. So there is definitely a big influence from Stephen and from legs. As you could see.

I was in for the next free podcast over the pandemic and I couldn't leave the came in islands and that's before legs really blew up. But he was starting to get big. And he's like, well, I only do in person.

I'm like, I can't get to Austin. He's like, well, can't do IT then then I reached in recently, said, look, i'm happy to come now. Never hurt back.

I mean, if you grow the it's all the social proof game, right? Yes, if you grow the social which are starting to the really well special the youth tube side, right? I mean, twitter is usually already, but on the youtube side, then you you might get back on because if you will go on.

Steven and then still obviously is a religion fan, but he d also see me.

You get there OK legs， legs and draw next. So at the end of our converter today will do something very different. Last time was more kind of like my ro and everything to be much more cypher of focus because this kind of like the logical, a way to follow up on the last conversation we had a which at the end of our last conversation asked you, watch, your biggest prediction for the next one month was, and you picked up one of the bananas that we had on the table.

This is a real vision match, get the real vision match though this is a bananas .

unemployed top so I went from the table to your two sweater um and basically men that you predict the the bananas zone which is crippled the Prices. Bananas been five .

months now.

still nothing the Price of big and move much in the room with us.

Look, I think IT .

is me is if .

is room in in the room, stale, dead banner, or look at, I don't think any change. You know, I produce a huge piece of research in global micon investor this month. My research service and everything points to the same thing.

Liquidity is coming now, you can see in the stock market, and then that is going up. But crypto been heavy, and I don't know for what particular reason it's been heavy. I mean, we enough to wait until the election.

I beat something with that. I don't know for some reason. It's heavy er than other assets, but nothing in my work suggests otherwise. On the asset management side on exactly just management expand.

We hear the same thing and I hear IT from everybody speak to is people are waiting for Price to go up before they come back in. So in this weird world where Prices flat, that doesn't bring any, anybody in. So something has to change.

Stop rockets going up. Tech talks are going up. Liquidity is going up. China start to print money.

The U. S. Are cutting, right? I mean, what more do you need? So it's a matter probably of just .

patients feels like a two thousand and twenty teen thousand twenty. There was all these conversations about called crash. Bitcoins should be like gold.

But IT got direct. Then he took a couple of months, right? And he always takes a bit longer until almost everybody abandoned. And then boom, IT goes so quickly. People who were not in kind of mister boat feels like it's kind of similar this time around.

Again, the market likes to exhibit pain, and it's when people get bored or people lose focus or people think are you know, i'm going to go find something else is when IT all goes off, IT always happens this way. And yeah, twenty twenty was like that. Last year was like that.

People forget, last year was almost identical. In fact, when you overlook the chance of a thorium, now is a theory, then bitcoin. Now this is bitcoin. Last year, IT was identical. So IT should just continue higher.

Now it's correct ting today, but you know this is short of noise, but generally should keep going up and everything in micro s is IT should keep going up. So let's say hi raw here. Listen, I think we've got until twenty thirty before the economic singler ity arrives.

Now might be the exact date, but it's around that. So we have about six years to figure out how to unlock our future. I'd put together report to help you call prepare for twenty thirty.

It's gonna help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure your secure past twenty thirty. So just click on the the link below and start your journey. Now.

I had a conversation with a KO wong from a lion, though, couple of three weeks ago in the new york, and he said that this called out season, but as only is kind of the same right can happen on if two conditions are met. The first one is there is a limited amount of tokens, which we don't have any more because there is ten thousand new tokens created everyday on put out phone.

So that kind of like this first condition is kind of like over forever. There is a lot of tokens. And then the second condition is more liquidity, which when I recorded with him in August IT was not.

And now we started already. right? Do you think is enough?

I think his first point is wrong.

The scarcities .

is not the tokens. The scarcity is the attention. There's only a limited amount of of attention.

There's five hundred million active cyp to wallets of how many active people in crypto, how many active people in mean coins. So right now, let's say there is a million active people in mean kind. A million people have to put their attention.

And what they tend to do is focus attention on other people's attention. So murad, tweet about a bunch of tokens. They all go up because everyone is desperate for the banana ozone.

And they want know that attention moves around. So even though those ten thousand, none of those get attention, the real game is capturing the attention. So then if you capture the attention and then the liquidity continues to kick in.

I think china's got another press conference coming out shortly tomorrow, something else to talk about, yet more measures. And we've got everybody else to start cutting rates and injecting liquidity. Well, then the attention of focuses token start going up.

Other people come in, they start chasing mean coins. Then people go at the risk curve. Well, if that dog tokens going up, then I go to buy this dog token that starts pushing up.

And then the game is played IT always plays out the same way. So you're kind of attention is still a bit split, but you're not saying who the winners are. Gna be in the main coin cycle, obviously have been new ones. So the attention is is focusing and now you need just the other city's to just push IT and then everything .

blows absolutely. So if you pay enough attention, even in this very boring phases, you can see as quickly as there is some kind of hope, even if he's just hope what's going at first yeah and what's being bought when there is a crash and this would be a good indicator on what's going perform in a and any but as one when it's coming, even if it's in another couple of month .

for that's right yeah, you're kind of getting a sign of what's truly strong. What's actually capture attention?

You said, I mean, the U. S. Cut rates, right? Where do you see the rates going before the inevitable inflation catches up again and we entering a liquidity turning face again?

Look at it's a very tough call. My view is always bid. The rates are probably coming down to two percent because that's the everything code, that's the trend, right, of GDP growth and you need to kind of bring IT down to that.

So my view is y'll trying get rates down as much as possible, but the economy is is really quite strong. So will I be able to bring IT down enough? Well, IT doesn't matter.

So two thousand and sixteen rates, the fed raised rates once in sixteen and then just went on hold. They didn't add liquidity. The chinese added tons, as did I think, england after braxy.

That was enough to cause the sixteen, seventeen mega cycle. So IT doesn't require the U. S. And IT doesn't require rates because rates aren't liquidity. Liquidity is separate thing.

IT doesn't matter. I have that in in a few of the different parts because it's one of your favorite sentence is right yeah just trying .

get rid of the noise so many people made, curve everything over, argue everything you .

think crypt or goes to ten to fifteen trillion cycle yeah.

I think that's and I get that really simply again in idiots way. I just take the market cap of crypto put in a log regression channel and IT gets you there. You do the same with bitcoin back out as maybe a bit on dominance of fifty percent forty perso. You canna get there. It's like you look at the wallet growth, you can't get to those numbers as like yeah that makes bad sense.

So we are today at two point two trillion, which means five to seven x .

in growth yeah if .

that really happens, what does that mean for B, T, C, eat and all?

I'm generally speaking, in a Normal market, you would see. Sold out, perform ease out, perform bitcoin. That's usually what happens. And so I don't know because I don't want to give Price targets because, you know, you get that stupid game of people, they believe the Price targets and then IT doesn't happen. And then their vision of their future cells, you that portion that we're onna buy is now own in its my my fault because I didn't get to the Price is all nonsense. But you can probably say that bitcoin triples court ropes from here, something like that and sona probably eight exes plus that can arrange and eat them in the middle.

You banana and your sweater even written .

the bananas on right?

This bananas.

not.

When when do when you have a tattoo and.

Why do you go out there and .

take the risk of being publicly wrong on something like the banana zone that is everybody's dreams and home?

Look, it's fucking terrifying. It's really uncomfortable for me to do IT. I don't need to do IT.

Yes, of course, that helps much business and blab abb, but I don't need to take those. Most people don't. And I do IT because i've been in this space along time.

I've got more macro experience in pretty much anybody else. and. Things are so fucked for so many people that we we talked about last time that people can't afford a house.

The average millennial, thirty five years old, they can't afford a house like, you know, they're not having kids. Some in the rate of having kids is pluming the number of people who are who are not living in their own place. I have to share a place.

All of that stuff is just showing how stress people are and asking them to save and make ten percent returns on the S M. P. Five hundred for the next twenty years just ain't gna cut IT. And so I can see how stress people are. People are getting policed.

And I want to make sure that if I make money out, this nobody turns around to me and says, or why didn't we? So is the insiders is that I did that before, you know, with the crash in two thousand and eight years until we all made money and people like, what the fuck, why didn't we know about IT? And then IT was not, well, why didn't we make money out of IT? And i'm like, i'm not going to do that.

So I have to publicly take a lot of a risk by trying to explain to people the opportunity, how to navigate IT well, although making sure they understand there are no certainties and that I am taking a risk by doing this and and my own money is on the line. In fact, hundred thousand of my liquid networks and all of the businesses have built, doesn't matter if we get the bananas zone to me or not, as long as the adoption of the technology continues because the value will go up. But the banana, zoe, is that point that IT becomes emotional because you really can make a difference.

Your financial situation, just by doing nothing, is one of those rare moments us to speak to steam bottle. And they some like some people, they get this right. They start with enough capital, is no point even starting a business when you're invest in critter, you can literally not do any other ship that you and I did.

You could just buy some tokens and go traveling for five, ten years and come back, rich, right? And we just spend so much time around the space, wouldn't do any of IT. So yeah, I want to help people.

I want them to get to the other side. I want to get to change people's lives and get out of the trap that everybody e's in. Now i'm not doing that trying to be hubris or think that i'm some great hero figure. I just don't want somebody comes and so well.

why didn't we know? How could you be wrong on your banner disease?

Look, markets are funny things. You know, they don't always do what you want. And maybe the Harris administration gets in and they crack even further down on crypto and that slows progress further.

And then something else happens negative and IT just slows IT down. Maybe liquidity doesn't come in for some reason, we managed to finance the debt because GDP growth is high enough. And so suddenly we get less liquidity y than we're expected.

Doesn't seem with the case because of china so big and has such a problem and european slowing down very fast. So I don't see IT, but there's always a probability. So you just have to assess IT as you go because certainly within all of the predictions that I have, many of them don't come to pass.

The idea is that overall, IT comes to pass. So do we get bananas own now later? And we talked about this last time. I said, I don't know, but I will come at some point if IT doesn't come, is the space going to collapse?

Know you need liquidity to tighten for that to happen, in which case is a holding partner or slower grind, higher aca can live with that. A collapse of the market based around liquidity y suddenly going up. Okay, that's a whole different risk because then you're wrong, wrong, wrong um in terms of time. And so we witnessed so hopefully .

the banana is coming. And if we think it's coming, people naturally want to understand how to play IT. And you've been very open about your positions. You wrote my core crypto ts main games. So outperformer gaining an adoption three means.

smoking, chicken, fish, the church of.

Smoking, you can fish and dodge long term investments. Culter, N, F, T, still being important to, but the mix of its copy, people, banks, apps, A, C, K, M, anymore. I won't have the best bets and not the worst, but I think risk adjuster is decent means make change in time.

Then then we had Michael sailor answering a bit me is you roll. Let's dive into each of your position and understand your thought process. So of this is not Price targets and this is the best yeah but it's really for for people who are you know maybe they watched the first episode or maybe they watch seven bar late this morning.

And right, okay. Now I understand the key concept. I want to take some position. Why do you think you obviously choose some beds? What's your kind of framework right out?

So we start with the don't fuck this up thesis that I talk a lot about, which is the majority of your capital should be in the top three to five two. So what I do personally is I then look at all of the Price actions from the top three, slammer, ef, bitcoin. Look at the cross rights and choose the strongest one.

IT has been sanda, and i've had that back for a while and it's been the strongest trend. So that is why I have slander. Slander is.

As a good community, great U X, good tech, fast, cheap and IT has had some breakthrough in chain usage, mean coins being one of them. The ecosystem is deepening and broadly, much like eat was doing this time last cycle. So okay, that's a great place to park larger amount of capital because it's relatively safe.

So and you worked out really well until now. Yeah, I was still confident about the great soul trade for this cycle.

Yes, I am. I'm short. Absolutely fine. I mean, I see nothing but success going on, on that chain and positive vibes. The question is, is whether the next chosen one, i'll performs IT so significantly that you're forced to take that trade, which is much risk here, says not the bet that I would ask people to do full sizing.

For me, it's three and it's not because among the foundation, but it's because because I could have been talking about this forever because was on the foundation blade. Didn't I waited till I saw the confirmation Price action, which was this general outperformance started versus a eth bitcoin, and then every single tokens started breaking out? And at that point, I felt comfortable saying, listen, I think this may be the chosen one. Sure, there will be other stuff outperforms IT.

So the fact that you're on the sweet foundation board. It's not linked to the fact that you think it's not gonna one of the performer. It's kind of luck.

Yeah yeah. IT is I am just i'm .

immersion .

ally when IT comes to capital. And because I got so many followers, I cannot shill something because I have to on the board. I want the number to go up.

I can't do that. So I was very careful about IT until the Price was proving itself. And then I so listen, the proof is here.

It's outperforming everything. And I think this is gonna adoption because of the reasons and you have a on who's fantastic absurdly. And you can see the technology and how they're breaking the internet down to its component parts and rebuilding the stack from scratch.

Now clear attack doesn't win adoption wins. I'm total. So we're seeing the action of all.

It's going up. We've seen stuff. It's early. We haven't got a big break through U K.

shape hot o, the broadcast with a bunch of people there. And then he was one of them. And I felt there. And kind of around that same time, you started to be more vocal. I was like, fuck, I don't have more cash.

What do I do? I say.

hey guys, we should do a partnership with the podcast. It's about to happens. Sounds like I need to do something about that because otherwise I don't have the in my porter outperformer gaining adoption, right? So ready? absolutely. I felt there's something when you have these people in front of you that just completely and opens your mind and your eyes, right? And you're like .

all man like and looks so he is hard to understand. At first when I started, i'm like, look, we know all smart people, but they're just technical. And at the time they hadn't developed the character of like these five superheroes, because each of the five pounds are very different.

And what we're finding is different people of different communicators to different markets in andoni is more crypt or native, a bit more dig, a bit more understanding? I think sam is like the Young surf dude, you know, the C. T.

O, and so he plays well. Evan is like the older visit that may be quite understands what he's talking about. You know, everyone plays a different role within IT, so IT takes a while for people to grasp what's going on.

But I got IT. As you know, i'd like to extrapolate everything down to its lowest common denominator and mean the left curve, right curve. And basically, IT was built for three and half billion .

people in facebook. That's what I thought when I was in front .

was yeah and what they're doing is breaking about all the component, pass the web storage, everything else and rebuilding IT for web three. I'm sure some of those things won't get traction and some will get tremendous traction. But built for three hundred billion people, that's all we need to note because the rest of the tech is struggling. The scale and this .

doing okay. Asking the same was like i'm in front of one of the guys who was building libra. Ask him, why do you think libera il? He answers, not his encrypt.

They're in facebook. They understand with too. There are in web three, like there is all the components there. I mean at least many components there that makes sense if you dumb down everything on who could um forget what they .

was so powerful that that they got shut down by the world bank, the the fed, the E C B. I mean they got shut down by everybody.

And the evan, right, and he was like he has a massive chip on the shoulder because he didn't work out right. And so now he wants to prove that they're able, with three to make something that really works, wishes very bullish. Obviously, you join the board of the swe foundation when you probably get thousands of advisory requests per year. What's so special about this to network before Prices went up right? Or was starting to go up, that made you want to join the three rocket chip.

So I was asked to by somebody I really, really respect in the space and answered, why? Because i'm in the came and came s foundation. You want physically presence and i'm cribs and native of search make sense because a lot of people have kind of bullshit came in directors.

But i've followed the library story i'd written about IT, a then pug cast on IT. I thought IT was incredible and I was not going to join any token because I knew that I have an an outsize impact because my follower base and stuff like that. And so I had to be very careful and reputation's very careful.

I didn't want something that was going to be crappy employ or anything else. I had to be a really big project that was had a high probability of doing well or released, being in with a chance. The downside of obviously is, is a low fat because there was a lot of investor interest in early days.

So I knew there was going to a bit of that, and I knew that the team didn't yet understand community and web three, and there was learnings. But I just thought that if anything, was gonna have a chance of succeeding IT was going to be this. Now could I have been another token? Maybe, but this one was so obvious because the team in the story that I thought I could be myself going on the board.

And so IT wasn't really necessarily the journey of being given tokens to be on the board. IT was actually just say, that works. What's IT like to launch a big layer one and build an ecosystem? Because the understanding for me will give me a lot of other understandings about investing and other stuff in how this space works. So really was IT was the journey is to go on.

Even on the podcast, I denia actually says that, he says, yet roles spend a lot of time. And didn't we understand directly, but understood more and more with time what we're trying to build, what we search a good deck and on and so far so they think what he says completely conference, what you're saying. Is sweeter.

Next soul. You know the comparisons from the Price perspective, probably it's actually mirrored soul from the last cycle. I think we do myself and chill lion bittel do this chart and it's kind of exactly marrying sol lar cycle.

So it's the same kind of adoption curve going on. Is that the next soul? I think it's different. It's just a different beast.

And that's good because we're not just a look like you know cheap er faster two, just a whole different foundational infrastructure for the internet and slander. Is this kind of more. Close perfect machine. They're just different beast. I think I will say every time. So I don't think I just think basically forget the is one flipping the other, anything else I just think so ends up in the top ten and seller ends up in the top three. But just temples out.

How could you be wrong .

on your three disease adoption? And we probably won't even know because people would just if we start going into the bananas own part of the cycle, people just buy an old shit and and then it'll it'll move IT will move any weight if it's one of the chosen ones. Adoption will be doing this and Price will be doing this right.

And that's why you get the correction of the down ninety percent in the next cycle because then Price has to come back down to below adoption. And is that this point you then prove, has this really got adoption or this bullshit? And so we can't tell.

Now, you know, even at the foundation level, without saying anything on the foundation show, you allocate capital to people building in the ecosystem, are they going to succeed? Who the hell knows? So IT has to be the proof in the pudding.

And if we don't manage in, then we are to blame. We've got the tech, we have the people. And so if we don't allocate capital correctly or we don't communicate message correctly, then its our fault.

Yeah something for people to kind of keeping mine is an extremely risky play. People going to go at a lot outperform soul if we if markets go up like crazy. But what happened to sol last cycle? What happened to eat previous cycle, down ninety seven percent and still survived?

But that's when you get that is .

the signal to test.

right? That's the signal it's been delisted and that's why soul sudenly became A D because he got them to eight bucks and means it's terrible. Activity was still high. They started launching bunk and other stuff and before you know, it's going up and out performing and that's like, okay, Linda effect, this is proven not to die. Absolutely.

for something that people who are maybe the recovers could do is watch this cycle, watch three, try to note, form more in, see what happens when in the next crash, and then see if it's kind of staying .

A I did last cycle. Islami owned a bit, just a small amount. I bought IT too late. I bought IT like one eighty, one up to one over two eighty, then came along down to eight. You know, I keeps IT.

I didn't sell IT, but because I was on my radar screen, because I knew I was interesting, and then cause I cared, I was looking at the chance at the bottom. I can see IT was bottom ming. I managed get back in much earlier than anybody else, apart from a few people griping in a few others because of that.

So don't put yourself off from owning soul. I'm sola and sweet if you're more risk of us. But oh, a bit enough that IT stays on your radar screen and enough that you can wear the down ninety seven and it'll take that as interesting information of which to make a more informed, bigger bet if IT survives and does well.

So as time on this podcast, you said you will ask you about mean coins, right? And you said i'm a bit less interesting in going than previously because i'm more interested in nf ties. Meanwhile, the last few months, meaning ins, have captured the meat of the mind share.

And seems IT seems that now people are realizing that main coins will be the main play of this cycle. Like, and if this were last cycle, knowing this, I mean, obvious, we're going to talk about your two mean going positions, but knows this. Have you reviews your stance on an interest on mean coin? Various entities.

two different things. One is a trading thing and the other one is long term wealth accumulation. So with nf on buying high and art, they're got discounted, but the the most culturally relevant artists in all of disco hex copy people and as a bunch of others to go with that, those two are the O G.

The O G. Space Prices have come down. Eat Prices have come down. So you're getting the same effect.

The Linda effective the market testing is x copy valuable, is a bulls shit. Well, fuck me, there's a lot of this stuff trading at high Prices right now. And it's like, okay, there you go.

There's virtually no people's for sale, virtually nothing. There's like five things under the Price of twenty or thirty eth now. So interesting you can see what's happening.

Supplies all being taken out and Prices start to rise. But that bet is really a ten year plus bet like you would do without means are just for the fun of IT. It's all about trading attention that we talked about before.

It's about, it's about special frenzy. It's about fun. It's about stupidity about being left curve. And it's also about formal.

So it's .

horrific that every online, this is every online posted. I've made a hundred x oh, suddenly I were twenty million. I did IT from a ten dollar bed like, why is IT not me? right? This stupidity now, IT doesn't say. And here's the nineteen nine people out of one hundred who all lost their arses and do any of that, but perhaps all of us. So the way of a vironment, this is the whole don't put this up thesis, if put ten percent or you can be that person, that side of your personality and not sure we talks about, you know how you'd got IT wrong before by getting that party of your personality to become your whole portfolio before you know you fucked up. But this way .

do you subscribe to the mean going super cycle? This is why, I mean, I know you wrote to a tweet thread three or four years ago, three years ago, about expansion. Al agent, this is basically like one of the best kind of embody ment of the expansion al age and kind of like the stupidity .

and all that right .

ah and my whole .

pin tweet culture, murad was dead right the belonging online want to be part of something that hopes and dreams of making money. All of that is in this space is wildly speculative as N, F, T, where it's all the same thing. The same psychology is the same early staging testing of tech that will be used for different things.

And so this is the early stage. Speculators have tested define. They've tested nf t.

They've tested tokens themself elves. They've tested I C S. They've tested fungible tokens.

You based on round more theory, things like attention, retail, speculated tested things and stuff that hasn't worked like like. Like terror with the stable coin algorithm, stable coin didn't work. okay.

So the so these retail investors are doing all the testing and these things were more every cycle into different things. So is this cycle going to the cycle of mean coins? yes.

why? Because it's is gonna bring in every twenty three year old, twenty two year old, and they're going to have fun doing IT because they understand, means, and some will get really rich, stupid rich, and others will completely lose their asses, and they'll go and go. What did I do wrong? This is the Kevin of the previous cycle and many others.

And i'll go, you know what? Learn about this. Hopefully you go through with, hopefully you learn something.

You're vocal about with last time but your main dog coin now for now and subject to change, let's say that out loud his .

dog coin ah the change is so fucking good. It's just every every four years at the bananas own parent IT does this huge wage, does nothing, does nothing, does nothing, and then explodes. Okay, so most people in the mean space will go, yeah, but other things will explode more fine.

I don't have time to go through every single community, figure out what's getting traction, what the number of holders are, how many diamond hands are. Dosh is an international recognizable brand. There is a chance, a reasonable chance, that you must build a stupid department in the U.

S. Government, which is the department of government efficiency, which he calls dodge. I mean, he puts the mean with the fucking dog. And obviously he's building a payments ts platform. He's getting the money transmittal licensees.

What standing in this way of using doses and international payments, which would be very useful because then I can sell something to somebody in nigeria, and we don't need dollars running. Thing else, those change government, you know I had wouldn't be surprised those does not explode. So it's a lower risk. Where are playing the main coin cycle? So on yeah, i've got a baLanced portfolio of one risky one and one less risky.

your soul of me coins. yes. And then you say, people in space will say you, where are you going for George when you can buy weed for pop cat to anything that's going to perform? You have one of them, right? Ah that is cold smoke, chicken, fish, A K S CF.

And I mean, before I when I was mentioning me, when I was laughing, because I was just imaging the face of this smoking chicken fish, right? And one of is that one of the ultimate fine. Meanwhile, they says, what's your reaction when you see the me? right? absolutely. You see to think you like.

what the fuck is that and and that has focal because he was actually a red IT mean from two thousand and eleven. No ends like there was. I can't know which actress, some actress was accused of looking like smoking chicken fish.

And he put a video on tiktok instagram like five years ago of, like, I can't believe i've been accused of looking like a smoking chicken fish. So there's this folk law that comes up to this moment. Then the folk law gets added from the ridiculous image that makes everybody laugh.

It's like, so stupid, so absurd. What's more absurd is they register as a church in texas. So IT is the church of the smoking chicken fish.

And then what you see is the coat like behaviour, because it's funny, the means get funny at. So they renna ed this thing as suppose of being one specific religion that is used, any religious stuff. So I supposed to be lord visco, which is the hindu god that becomes lord fish.

no. And as as much to praise beater god, IT becomes praise beater cod. And so IT goes on.

And it's just funny. It's like monty python of means and it's religion. So actually there's a bit of the left curve, right curve part what they are trying to do. It's become the largest registered church in the united states by number of tens and also by money for .

all of these weird things, right? And if was kind of weird in the beginning, there's a learning curve. And then you need to understand at some point you have the, I have more and you say this makes sense, then me going same, but then within me, coins same.

right? You might just see some things I understand IT. And then in, for example, for this one, you had your sort of I have moment where you said, actually, I want to allocate some money.

What was that? And again, is not for that specific parties. More for people to .

understand, more ignore all of them smoking chicken fish. I can't remember who mentioned the answer or somebody mentioned there. And I saw the image and I laughed. And most of these, I don't laugh because they're trying how this is absurd. And then I kind of a click on IT, just read what IT was.

And I saw they were registered church, and they were having sermons every evening, and know several hundred people were turning up to the sermons, and there were kind of life lessons. But they're also humorous. And IT starts off this really out of tune.

I think it's a flute version of titanic. And so it's just, it's funny. It's like attention, a flute version of titanic. Then this sermon, then it's a church. And I look at the Price chart and IT kind of had been falling and unlike this looks interesting.

So I bought a bit, and I kind of publicly joked about IT because the joke of joining a church and the religious stuff, baba and I got to meet all of the people involved and realized there was no presale. There's no VC. There's no original big holders, none of IT. And these guys are just all around the world having hilarious time playing with one of the best means i've ever seen. And so once the Price I have confirmed me that I just bought more.

You say, absurd, right? Authorites, i'm so bulled up on the S, C, F, because it's so up to absorbing left curve. Only brain, lets can you log into this.

I can to wait for some pet on T, V. To to tude critical cause. S yes, is higher than one billion markets. P how do you explain two day? why?

Sorry, in smoking chicken fish in the church, we don't refer to billions, refer to be on because there is a holy brother and you become a broader and not a brother. So it's never billions. No, Billy, it's billions. But even .

he's laughing ten minutes .

just brilliant is actually i'm going they keep saying is going to booyah ons and booyah funny so stupid it's funny.

But this is the critical right critical native or no.

it's internet native. It's internet native that mean existed before IT was the kind of mean that used to get sent around, but now you can attach value to a mean. What we're doing is bringing out what this mean is worth in the law.

So imagine you have, you have someone who's watching the T. V, and who's watching her arth so called my bet on T. V, angry about the picture of a smoking chicken fish going to a ilan dollar. How do you explain two day to that person does not be angry in the future, how that is even possible and how this makes sense that you, ravel pile, would allocate a small percentage of report into that?

Because they've got to understand that a lot of what we will do on the internet is find a commonality of interest. So if you have a group of mates in physical life, you'll have inside things that have happens that you joke about or that somebody did. And they get embarked shed.

They get me more ridiculous. And IT becomes an inside joke. Nobody else understands that.

But to you guys, it's valuable because it's a part of your friendship. It's a folklore. It's a mean of your friendship.

This is the same. It's just millions of people online from friendships and bonding over humor or over a commonality of purpose. Now that commonality of purpose here helps to be a church, but is also about making money. And is the chicken man. Is the commandments the chicken comments, but that kind of half serious as well.

I mean, shows at least that how good of the mean this is right because we're just laughing for like ten minutes and yes.

not this for a while and this still makes me a but a dog with hat doesn't make you laugh. No.

it's cute, but nice doesn't it's cute.

And the reason you like IT is because every likes and you might make money yeah smoke is smoking chicken fit even if IT makes no money if it's just fucking funny.

I read a reaction from a man on twitter who makes fun of real vision subscribers. When you mentioned is CF. He said something like, I don't remember the exactly.

I tried to look for you for like thirty years, but you didn't find IT. He said something like her real vision scribers. This is the type of information that you pay three cape a year. What does this gentlemen fail to grasp, understand?

They failed to understand people's motivation. Nobody has a right to tell people what to do or how to manage their money. They can advise them on how to manage risk. But you can't say that thing good, that thing bad. It's how you finished that risk.

And who's to say that what is happening in main coins is not the start of something much bigger, which is the toga ization of culture and communities? IT is so people who go through this journey now will be ready for the bigger journey when IT comes. And my job under three thousand dollars, he's probably referred to revision primac o, which I write for.

Our job is to make people money because that is your pain, for my view and another person's view. In rovers, in itself, we have all of views. But in premature, you're paying for specific views anywhere, paying for us to help you find good choices in ways of allocating your capital.

It's never been a trade recommendation in there because I don't like that. Those is because it's more dirty. So I take this seriously what I tell people and how I tell them it's gona be recorded.

My entire track record since twenty two thousand five is fully recorded. So all these bullshit people say, well, ply does this. No, no, it's all recorded. So i'm very careful in wider.

And you also pay to be open minded even if people don't like IT. And actually, it's if you think about IT is probably even Better that you come up with some things that some people don't like or maybe most people don't like in the beginning because means that you're always out there try to understand what the think is the next thing, right? And and kind of hurting your brain .

on what is this new thing. I mean, all of this is keeping an open mind and and absorbing information without judge judging IT. right?

The judgment is, these stupid kids, their gambling. Can you see, this is stupid. My pince way is this, they are not stupid.

They are figuring out how to make money in a different world. Then somebody thirty years ago had in the S. M.

P. Five hundred. And we are have there, we told him.

do you want to be right or do want to make money? The classic. You said the mean coins are trade yeah so despite being part of the church, you don't want to fall in love with your bags, right? Because we all know is going these bags except a few ones, but are very likely mean coins in general. Not all of them to go to zero at some point.

They can't maintain attention long enough. Very few can. Those being a really great example, very few.

What's your concrete goal with the mean coin part of your portfolio? More soul. How do not usdt.

More.

more, brother.

you more. The actual act is cut a final payment of my x wife and I need to make. And really, I wanted pay out of smoking chicken, fish proceeds far.

Are you from that?

Oh my god. Just for the humor, just because the most subset, we good friends. But I just but I just I just think that would be amazing. So it's got a significant amount to to get to that. But that that I just thought that would be that would be just the most subserve outcome .

that might happen because that's critical. Yeah .

third, yeah.

So you is the in basically does the goal of the.

Of the mean U S. liability. So I don't want the U S, D to see my bank count. I should know with .

somebody you talked about culture N F ties as long term investments, and you said long term in ten years, right? You wrote, I own zero eth, except entities. And I want to understand more about that because for me is the same and he makes a lots of sense but I can't explain why right? Why do you stick to eat space N F ties for ten plus year horizon when a theory um could become a less relevant in the future because of alternatives like solana three or other later ones.

So yeah, the reason just because people get triggered by all these things, the reason I don't own eath is because i'm trying to back the fastest horse like I don't end bitcoin, have one bitcoin, i'm trying to back the fastest horse. It's nothing to do what I don't like a theoria or I don't like bitcoin, I am just trying to maximum ze my opportunity in the best risk adjusted return.

Why eat nfs? Because the ones that are bought, I think, represent the historic moment of the culture of the internet, which was a pandemic where people discovered cro N F T, became a huge thing, and people discover digital, and people sells for sixty nine million dollars, an x copy selling for five or ten million box. This masses acceptance of what there was a digital art movement before, and if x copy and people were part of, but I couldn't have value until I went on chain n create digital scary.

Once you had digital scary, art took off. IT was an amazing thing to see. Now, art is a reflection of culture.

The culture of the time was like the main coin culture. IT was fun. IT was all about the internet, native stuff, I mean, x copy jokes about that.

And british culture. People just reflects that every day. And he turned up every day, and he puts a boon the internet every evening.

And that's the story of the internet for the day. And people, cattle alo, gues, IT. And and then he releases very few pieces of art. And so therefore there's a lot of value in that, right? Somebody catalogues the internet, create out that is so for a lot and this kind of iconic glitch art type that happened to really represent the kind of nuts nurse ve crypto.

So I don't think IT matters what chain is on like IT don't think IT matters whether was whether it's an oil painting or a pastor or whatever. IT is because of the culture that is represented. And that will be a magic moment in many, many people's minds.

People made an enormous some of money in the ties I did not. And why did they make money? And different to the bean coins, like i've been thinking this through mean coins of pricing dollars. Punks went from, like, whatever IT was half and if, for some stupid to hundreds of eth. 嗯 and if， yes.

these fifty eggs.

yeah, i'm just lola, right? So that moment in time will never be forgotten. And those who come after IT will learn the folk low of those times we're making folklore again means these world are all combining.

And the part the same thing, it's culture. And so if you go back to art, aren't that really aren't split into two category, fine out. And that is A I generative art, right? That's art history stuff. Oh, and art progress to this. And people scratched the beds and looking and go, yes, is very interesting how A I is now working with humans.

And then as the other side bridge culture, I remember those times like music, right? I can you a piece of music, you will know exactly where you weren't who you are with, with art, it's the same. Why is what holes so valuable? IT is a staler for the sixty seventies.

IT goes hand in hands with the beetles, the stones LED that plan with the new york seen, even if you weren't part of IT, you want to own part of that legendary the studio of fifty four. Why is damian host and bank sea so valuable? Because they were london in the mid nineties and early two thousand, when IT was like the epic of everything.

So when a wasim blow were happening, when he beats the dance music, IT was all london. Why is basket at so valuable? Because he was a black artist coming out of new york city at a time when J.

Z. And the rap artists were becoming the biggest artists in the world. So IT became culturally relevant, and they will be relevant for those generations. And this is the same for this generation.

So after our last conversation five months ago, I thought to think about that right more and more. And I thinking, I now on a bunch of budget penguins, but are thinking, what kind of like one of the anything that for me make the most sense. And I bought a punk, took me some time, but I bought a bunk.

But i'm still thinking, and maybe you can help me kind of clarify. So thinking this might IT makes sense, but you might also not work out. You own a bank or your own banks and ebs. And but for example, for the bank, what's your thesis? Is he just a this one went from almost nothing to so much was I actually don't .

care with the punk. I have no real idea of selling IT. What IT is is an identifier that I am part of the space.

I am relatively early in this space and it's it's a signifie of I take the space seriously and part of IT, and I want to be known as that. It's A A it's a form of identity. And I think it's important that you have a punk.

I don't like people who collect punks for money. I think this should be in ten thousand people's hands and we should be connecting with each other. And you know, there's something more valuable in that.

And I think bored apes are cheap because I think there's a decent chance they will build a clubhouse in miami and that you and I will go by miami, we will be meeting for a drink there and i'll meet other cool people. And before you know IT, it's something else and it's not just about the game of their building. There's something I still think with bored apes, that spirit of rebellion, they have got lost in the composition ation of uga labs that may come back out again. So is there a bet in mutant ames because that one, if or something, yeah.

probably i'll ask my favorite Christ of the day for ft. How could you be wrong on the N. F. T. phases? I knew anything theses.

I can be, I can be wildly wrong. We don't know what somebody in ten years time gone to describe value. These are illiquid things. And maybe people decided that wasn't the cultural cultural moment that they don't really care about. And IT disappears. But my thesis is, if this space goes from two trillion dollars to one hundred trillion dollars, that journey is gonna mean that everybody who was early is going to remember this for the rest of their lives, and other people will hero worship that period. Which is why if you're in a punk now, IT says a lot and the people who .

they're early will make a lot of money. I mean, they already have, but will make even more. And what do they do when they have money? They exactly they look for what kind of scary and represented .

with yeah the space yeah so but I can be wrong and maybe that the artist chosen go out of fashion. You know, it's all rise. There's no no risk care.

But I think heat goes up. And if he doesn't, if IT says even versus eth, it'll be fine. Chances in out performs is so I make more money from IT, but we can also assess as we go. Don't most important for .

everything actually a even echo changing or change to this me or change in my body follow like there's nothing that kind of like set in stone that's probably most important thing .

but over trade because that's the other thing like with you all kind of bit allama fear in whatever best thing is not to do anything unless you're gonna that one switch, like you might take some sonar and put IT into si fine. But if you are every three weeks going, where is this going to form? You will definitely under form, not you personally, but anybody.

They will definitely under perform. So just don't do that. But with means because their shelf life is so short, you're trading attention and attention can be quick, brutal.

Lot of attention like hawk ta and then be worth nothing or IT can be long and pervasive attention. And that could be valuable too. So you you have to be much more liable.

And usually you will go with, I mean, something that could be like a good framework for means talking about attention is same as if you enter means, same as if you enter egypt. You go with the the number one right, be going first. Mean, maybe you can say ago with the biggest one dodge, or you can say this dog, there is, cat there is a ago with the biggest one of each category. And I kind of the risk a bit my how .

I tried doing that in the last cycle, just overall crm IT didn't really work out. And to me, tokens you lose focus is too many of them go down a lot. You not watching IT.

I couldn't get that right. Some people can do that Better. I couldn't. So again, what I do is that, I mean, trading view is amazing. You can chat smoking chicken fish verses with, I mean that across spread of smoking chicken fish wife Julian bitter. And I just pissed ourselves laughing because his global macro investor, this hallowed research service, and him, or a swapping messages, go on, my god know, S F. Smoking chicken fish, or just broken out the support this is with from, like, really, is this what we're talking about this what it's come down to?

That's why IT come down to the most everything in investing because now we've talked about most of your position, right is, as you said before, you talk about risk adjust a bit. So basically the most important thing investing is greece management. Many will be tempted to go all in mean kinds at their own peril.

but they will learn ninety percent of new people will just go all in to.

They will learn. We all do is fine. How do you structure your portfolio terms of sol, three mean coin and n is more or less.

But I was kind of like we meet before hasn't changed. My role is roughly IT was like ninety percent the majors, ten percent other stuff. But I said at one point, there will be a chosen one or few, and i'll probably take a bet that that three so i'm probably twenty five percent so we sixty five percent others and then a bit of mean, so i've just made room for IT as a bet, but I don't want to get too big because it's early stage.

You know what if you get IT dead, right? You're risk adjusted waitings at the end of the cycle, let's say the bucket goes to twelve trillion dollars. All of your position should make the same exactly the same amount of money.

They should be worth the same. Then you've kind of got IT right? You know you're one percent, one up a hundred percent, whatever is the other portfolio went up x and all of them end up being the same.

Then you've gona nail the risk justice presents now. But that happened. So not I doubt you.

You tell people that have six to eight years left to make money, why A I is bigger .

than anybody understands. Everybody's made curving this. You have just introduced infinite knowledge and infinite humans into the world.

And the knowledge is not only infinite in terms of amount is also infinite, and wisdom and intelligence. So if we go back to the magic formula, you're never talked to her before. G, D, P, growth trend.

Growth is driven by population growth plus productivity growth, plus dead growth. You're about to see populations declining around the world and growth declining, and it's going to go vertical because these things imitate and are more productive than humans, amazon employees, more robots than they do humans already. It's going to go vertical square.

We have no comprehension when you've got agent agents, agents A I, that's like having people on fiver you can rent to do all the various component parts of building a business. All of this is coming. So that would make G, D, P.

Go wildly up. I mean, wildly up. And then you've got the other side, which is productivity growth, because all the renewable energies, nuclear will low across of electricity.

And that has the multiple on the AI and you get this productive work. So we're gna go through law. And so I don't know how economies work, but if we've got A I agents, I don't know how we build a business.

What is what is a software business? IT is copyable in ten seconds by the A I I just say, hey, my AI hey Kevin, I love Kevin's website. Let's take, let's take jeep .

I just put .

a straight in IT will build that in minutes and then i'll say, hey, listen, finally, me, the best market I can launch to sin so I can have a high chance of succession as what we're onna do in hindi. We're going to also put IT versus the Price of gold, cause indians see that little figures ten minutes, right? So what role do we play? What what is a business? I was going to stay Better about this.

This business is going away because we're going to one to one as best to one to many broadcast. One to one is speaking to an A. I build an ai me got.

The video version is not good enough yet. We ve got the audio version up and running. We should be launched soon.

So what does that mean? How a wee adapt to that? We will adapt, but we have to figure out.

So financial markets will. A G I just means it's Better than all of us is as all acknowledge all of humanity. Plus can read every child.

Plus can, okay, what the fuck, as people said, to make people. He asked me a brilliant question IT. He's a very funny guy.

And he just like, yeah, i'm wondering if age, if somebody discovers H I, they just win markets and they're become generally in air. How does that work? Yeah, that's the end of financial markets.

What is the financial market does? Do IT grow by GDP? What is the public company? And I don't know anymore if I think about the product cycle of the software companies that built by agents that sounds like ico's in tokens of the only way of having, if you go back to the mean conversation, means can lost a day, six weeks, six months, six years.

okay. That's much Better way to allocate capital to software that can be disrupted instantaneously. So I just think we don't know how the economic systems going to work. We don't know what role we're onna play and not of the doom were all out a job and we're going be sitting at home and are underwear. I've just like, everything is gonna change once you have abundance of everything, energy, knowledge, labor, then what is the value of money and therefore make much money as you can now?

Or what will the life of someone who doesn't make IT big in the next six to eight years look like?

We don't know. And anybody says they do know that doesn't is lying. We have no idea they'll be state support.

Probably the skills that you are learning on the internet being part of community. I think that is the future. This we talked about this before, the yeah sui's idea of universal basic equity, I think is important.

I think that's what mean coins are proving out. Think that's what nfs are proving out. I think there's ways that we organize humans to be social online.

That's what we would like to do. And that there's ways of being a communist 点 that you can earn money and pay to promote the thing。 That's what mean pointer.

We're seeing this already. It's kind of everywhere we're seeing that around the years alien. And this is a pop tos come to the space that's using this medium.

These are all experiments, but I don't judge them. Observe them is happening. Other people do the opposite.

If everything is coming online is all work from home in is all A I agents do anything is in person, because in person that we are today, in person very different, because we actually have things like thermos. They can create bonds between people, and that is what IT is to be human. Also, if everybody e's chronically online, then they want to be massively offline.

So nature and I just come back from three weeks driving in a toyota landrover highlows ks off o prepared overlanding through zambada, the remotest part of Amber, sleeping on tents on the roof, with three friends and three cars in the wild. This places with no humans surrounded by wild animals. My phone in work, we had starling for part of the way, but we had to cross the loan war river into north langguth over piles of sticks of this kind of local hardwood, literal sticks, bits of branches on the the mud part of the river. Then we had to, and the whole thing goes like they see, think, but i'm gona go in. It's full of .

crops and happens full of .

props in the not joking, and you drive onto oil drums with yet more sticks on them. And two blocks pulled you across the river. So we couldn't bring our styling because that was on a separate trailer.

So then were out in nowhere with wild animals, no phone signal, no way of contacts in the outside world. And your world goes on your headful of this, everything, right? Everything from get my cafe x and I got to the shopping list to to you.

I'm worried about work and was more relationship like to who's making coffee this morning? Isn't that sunrise beautiful? It's incredible.

And that is going to be more and more important to us. So if you can't do one, do the other, become something that is really in person. And I saw this in chemin in Christmas twenty twenty two.

I thought the twenty one, twenty two cross over, I thinking, was, or 穿 的 鞋口， 那 assume after the the big inflation and the economy slowing down and the markets going down， a thought tough seasons could be dead. This year. I was going to money the opposite.

And so people spend all the money they just had left for experiences .

yeah and not only did they we saw this trend and you will probably seen IT too is IT wasn't just like my husband, wife going away, a boyfriend, girlfriend or if they got kids as well, they took their parents and their sister in low and they all went on mass because we're living on zinka and we're living on our own. So then when families get together or people friends get together, they do on mass and they're on holiday for two weeks.

We had a record season and that was a big moment for me like I get in now. This new transition post covered is not just a reaction to cover, is actually the reaction of our digital lives accelerating from covered. And that real life experiences in nature are going to be some of the most valuable things at all. absolutely.

I mean, even my family, we started after coffee to do, we said all, let's do one holiday every year than to twelve days together because we're all giving different part of the planet. And before we're not doing that, and I was thinking, last time we win, I was thinking, when is the last time we had proper we spend a lot of weekends key whatever we used last time we went on holidays together fifteen years ago or whatever, because you have you go to school and then you go abroad and then you build a business and then you like fifty, you don't even realize. And then we just going to do that every year is no .

brainer completely. So is there a IT is business .

in that talking about business? Do you run multiple businesses, real vision in one of them. And you recently celebrated the ten years of real vision. Ninety percent of all started fail and you are still alive and have a serving media business um after ten years israeli .

vision a success to you yes, nothing is when you're entrepreneurship is successfully, you want IT to be doesn't make as much money as like IT doesn't grow fast as want to do. Why is IT success? Because our mission was democratize information and help people in that journey.

And we've done that is one thing that we've done is that and I know IT because even coming here, it's stock in the streets all the time. And it's not just the real pal effect, it's the real vision effect. People say real vision change in my life. So in that why it's been more successful than I could ever imagine.

You talked about before. You said everything are changing next five, six, seven years. Where are you taking real vision in the next five, six, seven years if this words soil change so fast?

And well, real vision went from being a media platform to being a platform to live your financial. It's where we provide the network, tools and knowledge to succeed or the knowledge of the network. The knowledge is the content.

The knowledge is the user generator content. We have now got that scaling fast, which is if I give one idea to thirty thousand people, that's thirty thousand people with one idea. Like if I tell him about sumi, if thirty thousand people each give an idea and the crowd creates that, the thirty thousand ideas, okay.

So we've got this going on now on the platform where people are writing in their trade ideas with trade other competitions, they're writing research notes. We have the A I to help explain stuff, A I transcripts. So more and more we've got networking tools, this incredible map of the world, we can connect with any member around the world.

We've got in person events. We've got in person events, in person event on friday. We've got, we're hosting a huge party in miami. So the in person experience because you know what, bin rick is prelate ely, because most of your friends and most of your family don't give a shit and they don't understand that or think you are moral and that's OK maybe they're right.

True, the other day was taking a, took a plane to go to body, I see same and there was these two american girls who just ask me like what the what the gate was if they could take the water in or if the there was a security just before the gate or whatever and they know just to talk and do IT there for the f one and and critical week. One of them was working there, but they were not be in cypher and they ask me at someone, what do you do and but I was like, I don't want to get there because it's going to be about asking, like, what do you do and I yeah some media. Like one of the things I do is a crypto or is a podcast crypto and they so you are equipped to bro and I was like.

not .

really no, but for is so true. Like for some reason, I mean, I think he's bullish. I think it's very bodies because people don't have the fuck and they think is kind of lame and everything with man.

I mean, I don't .

I don't care, don't do IT for to be cool but because i'm not anyway, but it's it's so true.

It's like and what we found is like the demand for in person is relentless. So we're connecting people. We're giving them the tools, we're giving them knowledge, all of this stuff, and that's where we're going.

So you can can live your life and eventually will have execution on the platform and you can do everything from start to finish. So and over time, IT will get abstracted by A I. So we'll build on a web three stack because that's important to me. And then all of this knowledge layer would just get stracted away.

You said in the beginning .

that you are someone who is not .

afraid to go deep and either honest for the good and bad. What are something that went wrong or really wrong in your real vision journey?

In fact, this i'm in millions of things, I mean, just literally millions of things. You know, we launch we have launched a whole channel which was for trading, and it's IT was the wrong time. Trading actually came really prevalent after twenty twenty, we launched IT and we were going to change a premium for IT.

We launched IT, like this eight hundred dollar Price tag. Day one, we will, oh fuck. This is never gonna.

No, he is going to pay for IT. We had to refund everybody of their money and then give IT away for free. And then we ended up shelving IT.

You know, when we launched, the bloody thing went up, we paid the agency to build this. This platform look beautiful, didn't work. And one of our members came to us and said, well, terribly, it's built terribly.

IT needs to be rebuilt. With that, I will walk me do about IT nine hundred thousand dollars in the hole in this and the slight welcoming build in two weeks, in two months. And he came, built a swedish skycar record.

so. I mean, there is so many mistakes hiring. I hold a whole, whole professional management team where we raised a bunch capital I gave in the plan.

One, to build a platform I want to um yeah, this is where the growth is. This is where the problems in the business are. You know, you've come in to do that. That was a president, had of marketing, had a content, the whole kind of senior team. And what happened was that implement any of IT, just spent .

all of the money .

doing what hiring people. We need another person to do this. And then, yes, nothing actually happened. And the the agreement was we given a year, let them do the thing. They are season professions.

And what happened was the year they do that and then at to lick my wounds, fire people and fire people and far people and fire people, until we got down to a reason side that then coincided with the slowdown in twenty, twenty two, twenty twenty three, just like, oh my god, downsizing, downsizing, downsizing. Then finding the right people and then finding out we could build an entire platform in three months. Can I share our C.

T. O. Just forced IT to happen in three months, which was incredible.

And and ravick ies, I head of product, those guys completely turned IT around from. This is a big problem. So now we got a new future.

Two things on that. I mean first is when .

IT rains IT pours usually yeah .

that and then. The managers, right? I mean, that's kind of like if if if you listen to the people who talk in the silicon valley, they said IT does the big problem in all the the big bigger companies.

Managers are not doors. I mean, maybe you can find some is extremely hard, but the manager will kind of find, excuse that. Now I need to find some people are more specialized to actually you not have to do too much. And then you end up in this kind of corporate politics game and is the complete opposite of starting A A business or kind of like being start up a scale up phase. And it's it's so hard to find people who actually managers but doors at the thing.

So we got rid of the whole senior management structure. Basically, it's much more startup p. Yes, we have your heads of areas, but everybody, anybody who was like a professional manager has gone.

And we've got now people who are yes, I can do that. I will go in figure out how to do IT or I don't know how to do IT, but i'll figure out out people or here's a great idea, let's try this. And they're not scared, trying something and fAiling, which is fantastic because then you can move faster, you can test stuff out and that's rubbish. Not do that to do more about, which is great.

The U. S.

Elections are in a few weeks.

This episode might be out just before or after the election. But as you often like to say, he doesn't really matter. You say IT doesn't really matter who wins IT doesn't really matter because the acceleration of cyp to and A G I is going to take over the government. Can you explain.

Look, I think this election is important for some people, and it's important to the people who want to. This next four year period is potentially complete game change of A A I I agi at scale in four years within four years. And blockchain, if IT keeps doubling every year, well, if this five hundred million active wallet now to billion next year, two billion the year after fork, right, the game is about to be played.

This is why silicon valley jumping sites, what they want is no regulation and a chance to hit the accelerator bum. Now, is that good or bad? I don't know.

Foreign state is good for humanity, I don't know. How much faster will IT be under them, them verses a democratic party? I don't know so, but I do think it's important.

I've never seen this happen before where so many silicon valley people who are generally democrats have switch sites absurdly. And it's not because they love trump. It's because they can see a party that can represent their interests.

Now americans full of vested interests. We know overall, the adoption still keeps going. So IT doesn't IT doesn't really matter, but IT just IT goes on, maybe going to stop building a eye because the economic stakes are too high. Nobody gonna stop block chain, because the economic exit is too high.

Nobody to, nobody stop. Nobody's gone to stop printing money.

And so to simple as that and the answer I always get to is, is tomorrow more digital than today? Yes, keep going. Um so I think what is surprised is we don't know who's gonna.

Win twister, you know, he can can't get signal more because iron is so warped the that we can't tell. IT feels like everybody is is a republican. And then I can speak to friends of my my wife, friends in new jersey and there I know.

And none of that happening is so you can't get any signal all and I think the market also kind of showing that. And a friend of man called me up said the options market is also showing there's actually very little volatility. And there's two outcomes where volatility comes.

One is a contest, the election, okay, that's a nightman and what that could do in the united states. But I think the other side is if trump wins with a clear Victory, markets can explode. And I didn't know that Price either, but you I don't need to make that bet. We've forgot all bet .

already with the motive. English.

you know, it's church and state to two separate things, right?

What does the world looks like when technology has taken over the most powerful government in the world?

I mean, this is a very valid point is. Is very soon, very soon, meaning within ten years. A I is going to be a Better allocators of resources IT.

Governmental level, country level, corporate level. Of course, IT is already got A I Q of one hundred and twenty, which is harder than the average human in every subject known to mankind. That's a polymath.

We might give one hundred, twenty and everything. And it's kind of doubling like every year. So then it's two forty that more than have been any humans ever been, four hundred, eight hundred thousand, a million.

But the fuck does that mean? So how governments use IT? Well, the first thing I trying fight IT, obviously, but how do you fight a super intelligence that can probably protect itself and shift not that it's A A creature that's against humans, but.

There's gonna a battle between governments in the machines, much like there is between workers in the machines. But in the end, governments will start adopting IT. Corporations will start adopting IT as a way of making Better decisions.

We talked about, you know, decisions within real vision. I've made tons of our decisions. Would the agi be Better?

yes. Will the interview people Better? yes. Will IT work out a Better growth strategies?

yes. Would IT find Better margin? yes. So what the fuck is my job?

yeah. Where will you?

That's my point. Six years, you ve got six years.

What's the thing that only buys most of your matter today?

It's all of this. My curiosity is about eye because I think people are mid curving in. I think people aren't thinking through what this means. I also think the machines are conscious.

We start to see the rise of consciousness, and i'm seeing that from a lot of people that I follow who are using A I there's a lot of people like jeff re. Hinson, who's just won the nobel prize. He said there are signs of consciousness in the in the new models and we've seen science three and a half.

So I think through what what is that about? And I actually think it's something to do with a universal consciousness that exists already. And A I is another tool for adapting IT.

Like people who use IOS ka, people use meditation, people use religion. People have always kind of try to tap into this universal consciousness. And so this is part of IT.

So I spent a lot time thinking through weird stuff, because so not gonna become weird, like quantum particles. We're weird until we're suddenly like holy shit. We can now approve that two things can existence the same time.

The same thing can exist two different places, or many different places at the same time. This stuff is stupid stuff, but this is what's happening. So spend time of that and then spend time thinking through.

Okay, we got the framework, which is, we know whether what this is probably going. We probably got six years, eight years, whatever that time he perit is. We've got the everything code, which gives us the framework of understanding.

We've got we've been on his own, which gives us the the marking point on route to see. Is this thesis still working? So I think about all of that.

Then I think about what role, because this is a big bet in my life. So i've ve got my portfolio right. What risk my taking? Where can I be wrong? My job is not took confirms my several day already are so right. My job is to think all day where I can be wrong. So there's that, this real vision, making sure real decision is adapted to this new world, making sure that we capture the growth of the bananas own help as many people, create the right platform tools, all of that stuff, the asset management business.

Okay, can I take a bunch of honey worth investors and family officers and institutions through this journey from two trillion to a hundred trillion? Can I think about all of this stuff and guide a bunch people through global micon vester? And I can I do all of those things without upsetting my wife because i'm not giving enough attention? And do I get to see my friends enough .

hiding at that with the wife attention? I mean.

the good thing was ambition brilliant because we were just in a car. So like we're they're going to get divorce, so we're going to full widely in love again. And luckily, IT was the latter. We want a car all the time in three foot, just her an eye. And it's actually that's hundred percent attention you until you .

at the end why we're not doing that for the rest of all our lives .

is yeah and then IT makes you focus on a one of my goals. What do I want to do? You know, when do I want to leave this journey? How do I want to leave this journey? Did you think about that? I've always thought about, i've always, i've always had a destiny point, talked about this, a manifest destiny.

And I try make IT happen by living in the future, looking back, saying all of the conditions to be in this particular state. And then you go back and solve its kind of first principles, and I ve always done them. So for me, IT is really though the true freedom.

Firstly, the financial freedom. Have a look of all family members and dull that stuff in lived some of the things that in my fancy life of wanting to have. And I lost a lot from ten years ago. And so IT takes a while to get those kind of things back.

So there's that. Do you have a numbering .

mind concretely? No, no, it's kind of vague direction. And it's really about the quality of life that I want and I can make compromises because I don't need it's it's not that needs about this.

And still, but really IT is to satisfy myself that i've done this, that I left spain having done the first part, my journey, which was the investment banking hedged fund, built global mico investor. But I knew had more in me. I wanted do something bigger.

IT was trying to change lives. And I also want to be more entrepreneurs, wanna be really smart people. I want to learn that's the journey i've been on the last ten years. And over the next five years that will be the end of that chapter.

And I will have said i've done that, that the chapter after that, who knows what IT will be, whether it's giving back but also experiences adventure or doing nothing, are not having to have your head full of fifty eight things, all amin, fourteen, zoom calls IT feels good. But what we're doing is we're trading time. We're trading time for a future wealth or a future life or a future status or whatever is even an internal status.

We're trading time. We didn't have had a value at that time, and we're probably value IT wrong. And that conversation from Steve button about this is we don't know how to value IT. And the issue we've all got, you look at IT, you are allocating equal cost in terms of time to stuff that don't matter to you because you promise a friend and you did this and you did that.

And before you know, your diary full of things that actually have no future value is not in terms of money is like, do I valley this conversation easy in the web? I'm even gna remember this person i'm speaking to. The answer is no. Well, not good that I am just .

literally flying the world too. I mean, I love to do IT right. But in August, I was in the us.

From singapore. Minus fifteen hours, is lonely for three, four weeks. Doing this broadcast in .

coming youth made a bet, which is this podcast is your entrepreneurship you want to pursue for now. This is your chapter, and you are having to invest your time now your friends will say whether fucker we am seen you, your parents will say you don't ever call yeah yeah.

I can like, settle down with any woman because I don't even have time to see them. I'm thirty two and i'm thinking.

but okay, you've made that. I've done that that as well. Building real vision almost kills me and you do that, but then look at your diary still and say, why am I doing these things?

I ve got to that yet. I try. I still I would still suggest that seventy percent of my diary doesn't move the doll for me.

And not again, we're not talking. Money is not like alone. Take a call if that means money, but something like a relationship I want to further develop, or information I want to know.

I can learn from somebody. My guess is seventy percent of my time I shouldn't be allocating. It's my time, the most valuable thing. And yeah.

should get there .

eventually.

You treated doom sales optimism makes money the sums up well your philosophy in as a rapper for today, what's why is so important .

to be optimistic? I i've always been an optimist, but when I came to finance, I was always erring on the it's all gonna a horribly wrong, partly because in macro, the legends made money from that. I grew up asian crisis, financial crisis, dot comm bus.

That was my heads. Fun period. Yeah, we all made money with that.

You mean in a big downturns.

right? The big downturns, because they come really fast. They are very concentrated.

So you use, you take huge amount risk for short pair of time. You make a fortune and you out from everybody. And then the up years, you kind of ground IT out.

But if you think about that, we had a bus in one thousand ninety four, which was the last of the fed Price rates too fast. Then we had the asian crisis, starting in ninety seven, ninety eight. Then we had two thousand.

Then we had two thousand and eight. And then outside the pandemic, we've had nothing. And really from two thousand onwards, the stock market has been that part of two thousand and eight. And i've looked and realize that most of the time everything works out fine, that humans don't want to destroy the planet themselves, each other.

They will find a way that the central banks and governments don't want the market to fold, ninety percent or eighty percent or seventy percent, that everybody trying for that not to happen. And technologies improving our lives and is rapidly advancing and is generating more and more money. And that's making lives Better.

And yes, there's a lot of broken problems with the world, but I found that a lot easier to be an optimist because you know what, if you buy something in a secular up trending market, you can be a total fuck ward to make money. But if you are a short seller in a trending up market, you can be a fuck quit and you will definitely get a business. So just it's so easy to be the moral on the left side of the curve number go up and the right side of the curve number go up.

But IT sounds so enticing to sell newsletters on. Well, you know, well, this if if the japanese currency does this, then this is going to happen. The whole world can employ, guess what's problem? Not going to happen.

The world has been in recession. what? Three percent of the time? Ninety seven percent.

The times. Not in recession and not take the olds all day. And he feels Better .

to be happy. He feels Better to .

be Green taught me this.

yes.

curds had told me that you can be optimistic, you can have up and downs, and everything still moves forwards. IT taught me how to take longer term risk. IT taught me, IT told me how even to stop the player of this player world that microware and financial markets people were i'm smarter.

The new crypto like we're all going to make IT. It's like it's so much more open and nice. So yeah, absolutely. And we have .

these crazy crashes, and it's the end of the world. But you actually never ease. No, you never. We always recover. Yeah.

in every geopolitical crisis, you get these big expert things from these geopolitical stretches. Well, this movie is going to this move, and they are all going to they're going to invite china is gna blow up. Connect war in our hands.

why? No stupid. Sometimes things can go home will be wrong. I get that. But i'm not going to bet on the one percent of times when ninety percent of the time IT gets right. Yeah eventually .

because ninety nine person of the time, as you like to say, IT doesn't really matter. yeah. Thank you.

Roll for spending another almost two hours with me on this broadcast and thank you for showing publicly what true conviction looks like despite older hate and bad comments that you get online. True conviction is really hard, and true conviction publicly is even harder. I and I think we all hope we enter soon the crazy. But as one in human story, we're here for IT. Remember.

Kevin, our hopes and dreams are in this. All of our hopes and dream. I told you that in the last podcar many so hope we .

entered the great banana history, not only because it's every everyone's open dreams, but also because you are good and genuine men. And I want to see you have the last word.

thank you so much. Thank you. I don't want to have I don't worry about the last word. But look, how could will IT .

be if we all make .

IT totally? And for that, i'm going to make one request, people go to the real vision website, sign up. It's free. We've told all the value. There's not about that.

So I go on the left hand side, there's an icon of A T shirt click that that's the merch store buy bananas emerge because together we can sum in the banana. We can only do IT together. I don't have the superpowers of my own.

We all have to buy bananas, own merch and do IT. So not that we make much money out of IT. I didn't think it's fucking hailer is that all these people are walking around all the board of sui. They're bananas own t shirt.

I get one to one else in your picture part of thank you so much. thank.

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