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cover of episode At the Money: The Tech Behind a Crypto Future

At the Money: The Tech Behind a Crypto Future

2025/1/8
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Masters in Business

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D
David Schawel
M
Matt Hougan
预测比特币价格可能达到500,000美元的成熟阈值,并认为有可能达到1,000,000美元或更高。
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Matt Hougan: 我认为比特币是投资者以数字形式储存财富的一种方式,无需依赖任何政府或银行。它建立在一个名为区块链的重大技术创新之上,这项技术经过40年的发展才得以实现。比特币在2008年和2009年取得了突破,并从那时起持续获得采用。 以太坊比比特币更复杂。如果将比特币视为数字货币,那么可以将以太坊视为在公共环境中使货币和计算可编程,你可以在其上构建应用程序,例如智能合约、稳定币和其他应用程序。我认为这是一项非常令人兴奋的技术。 加密货币使无摩擦的可编程货币成为可能,其应用案例广泛且具有现实性,例如将收益流附加到艺术品或门票等资产上。然而,其发展受制于监管和技术因素。在过去,区块链技术速度缓慢且成本高昂,但现在我们拥有高性能、低成本的区块链,能够处理大量交易,并且监管环境也更加积极。我认为未来两三年内,加密货币领域将出现大量令人惊叹的新应用案例,它们将进入主流,人们甚至会在不知不觉中使用加密货币应用程序。 稳定币是加密货币领域一个重要的杀手级应用,它能够让全球任何人通过手机访问美元账户。这对于那些货币通货膨胀严重或难以获得美元账户的国家和地区的人们来说尤其重要。 加密资产的保管和安全措施已得到显著改善,现在主要通过受监管的合格托管机构进行,并有保险保障。 比特币投资包含投机性和基本面投资两方面:投机性在于其未来价值,基本面在于其作为价值储存手段的潜力,以及与美元等法币相比的优势。 投资者应关注比特币和以太坊等加密货币作为一种新兴技术,但需谨慎投资,避免盲目跟风。 Barry Ritholtz: 作为主持人,我主要提出问题,引导讨论,并对Matt Hougan和David Schawel的观点进行总结和回应。 David Schawel: 我认为一些加密货币支持者对价格的预测过于乐观,低估了市场效率和未来风险。仅仅因为比特币和加密货币在过去上涨,并不保证它们未来也会上涨。未来存在许多可预见和不可预见的风险,例如监管风险、技术风险和采用风险。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is Bitcoin and how does it differ from Ethereum?

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that allows investors to store wealth digitally without relying on governments or banks. It is built on blockchain technology, which took 40 years to develop. Ethereum, on the other hand, is more complex and enables programmable money and compute. It allows for the creation of smart contracts, stablecoins, and other applications, making it a platform for decentralized applications.

What are smart contracts and how could they be used in real-world applications?

Smart contracts are self-executing contracts with the terms directly written into code. They can be used in various applications, such as concert tickets, where artists like Taylor Swift could sell tickets directly to fans and receive a share of resale profits. This reduces scalping and ensures artists benefit from secondary sales. Smart contracts can also be applied to art, enabling artists to earn from downstream revenue streams.

Why haven't smart contracts and other crypto applications gone mainstream yet?

Two main reasons have delayed mainstream adoption of crypto applications: regulatory uncertainty and technological limitations. Regulatory concerns, such as lawsuits from the SEC and anti-crypto sentiment in Congress, have deterred corporations. Additionally, blockchains were slow and costly until recently. However, advancements in blockchain technology and a more positive regulatory environment are expected to drive widespread adoption in the next few years.

What are stablecoins and why are they considered a 'killer app' in crypto?

Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to stable assets like the US dollar, functioning as money market funds on a blockchain. They provide global access to US dollar accounts via a cell phone, making them invaluable in countries with high inflation, such as Argentina or Turkey. Companies like Yellowcard use stablecoins for cross-border payments, demonstrating their potential to revolutionize financial accessibility and efficiency.

How has the security and custody of crypto assets improved over time?

Crypto security has significantly improved with the rise of regulated custodians and insurance from leading providers. Early issues, such as lost passwords or drives, were common when Bitcoin was worth only a few cents. Today, most crypto assets are held by qualified custodians with robust security measures, ensuring safer storage and management of digital assets.

Is crypto a bubble, or is it a legitimate investment opportunity?

Crypto is both an investment and, in some cases, speculative. Bitcoin, for example, represents a bet on its future as a store of value comparable to gold, as well as a hedge against inflation due to increasing US debt. While skeptics point to past bubbles, many institutional investors, including BlackRock and Fidelity, are allocating to crypto, signaling growing legitimacy. However, risks such as regulatory changes and market volatility remain.

What do skeptics often misunderstand about cryptocurrencies?

Skeptics often anchor their views on negative first impressions of crypto, such as its association with illicit activities or high-profile collapses like FTX or Mt. Gox. They may not recognize the advancements in technology, regulation, and adoption. For example, the Department of Justice has stated that Bitcoin's illicit use is minimal compared to cash, yet skeptics often overlook this data.

What are the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies?

Investing in cryptocurrencies carries significant risks, including regulatory uncertainty, technological vulnerabilities, and adoption challenges. While crypto has been a top-performing asset in recent years, there is no guarantee of future growth. Investors should be cautious of speculative forecasts and consider the potential for market corrections or unforeseen risks.

Chapters
This chapter introduces Bitcoin and Ethereum, highlighting their core functionalities and potential use cases. Bitcoin is presented as a digital store of wealth, independent of governments and banks, while Ethereum is described as a more complex platform enabling programmable money and applications.
  • Bitcoin: digital store of wealth, blockchain technology
  • Ethereum: programmable money, smart contracts, applications

Shownotes Transcript

What is the value of crypto-currencies as a technology? How do the technologies that underlie Bitcoin and Ethereum work, and what are their futures? Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management speaks with Barry Ritholtz about the future of crypto-technology. His firm runs over $10 billion in client crypto assets. Each week, “At the Money” discusses an important topic in money management. From portfolio construction to taxes and cutting down on fees, join Barry Ritholtz to learn the best ways to put your money to work.

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