We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode 4-peat
People
A
Aaron Klein
C
Chris deRitis
J
Justin Begley
M
Marisa DiNatale
M
Mark Zandi
Topics
Aaron Klein: 特朗普政府的关税政策给市场带来了巨大的不确定性，导致企业决策犹豫，消费者信心下降，从而减缓了经济增长。这种不确定性还导致进口大幅波动，贸易逆差增加，对经济产生了长期的负面影响。即使关税有所降低，经济状况仍然比原本应该的要差，而且关税水平仍然高于以往。我认为很难找到有人认为这种调整在短期内对整体经济、消费者或企业有利。 Chris deRitis: 我认为与年初相比，经济前景仍然较差，但与125%至145%的关税率相比，情况有所改善，衰退的可能性降低。由于不确定性，企业可能不愿意将关税转嫁给消费者，以免疏远客户，批发商似乎在消化关税的影响，至少目前是这样。 Marisa DiNatale: 我认为由于预期关税上涨，企业大量囤积库存，因此至少可以推迟提价。随着库存的减少，未来几个月可能会出现价格上涨。 Mark Zandi: 我认为四月份的消费者价格通胀依然温和，这可能是暴风雨前的平静。降低关税表明政府愿意对经济困境做出反应，但30%的关税仍然很高，而且没有看到其他进展。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast begins with greetings and updates from the hosts, including their experiences at a Moody's ratings conference and webinars, highlighting the prevailing economic anxiety.
  • Moody's ratings conference in Silicon Valley
  • Economic outlook concerns
  • Webinars on economic topics
  • Anxiety and uncertainty in the economic climate

Shownotes Transcript

The Inside Economics team welcomes back Aaron Klein, senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution, for his fourth appearance. The episode begins with an analysis of the latest economic indicators, unpacking fresh CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. Mark then asks the team to weigh in on how recent tariff announcements have altered their economic forecasts and recession probabilities. Moody's Analytics economist Justin Begley provides a breakdown of the budget reconciliation package moving through Congress. The episode concludes with Aaron's assessment of emerging vulnerabilities and potential flashpoints in the financial system.

Guest: Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution)

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]). We would love to hear from you. 

 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View).