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John Carney
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John Carney: 我认为特朗普政府的贸易政策目标是重新调整全球经济规则，这类似于二战后和里根时代美国所做的。关税虽然是税收，但它也激励其他国家与美国进行谈判，降低关税和非关税贸易壁垒。特朗普政府真正关心的是贸易逆差，而非公平贸易或比较优势。他们对市场波动具有较高的容忍度，因为他们关注的是长期目标，而非短期市场反应。他们对贸易战持乐观态度，相信美国市场对其他国家的吸引力足以促使他们进行谈判。如果共和党未能通过减税措施，将会导致经济灾难。我认为共和党中的财政保守派最终会被“碾压”，减税措施会获得通过，而预算削减则会留待以后处理。我认为特朗普政府可能会利用房利美和房地美来增加美国的住房供应，以解决住房负担能力问题。 Jim Parrott: (观点补充和问题引导) Mark Zandi: (问题引导和总结) Marisa Di Natale: (少量参与讨论) Cris deRitis: (少量参与讨论)

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This chapter explores President Trump's motivations for imposing tariffs and engaging in a trade war. The discussion includes the historical context of similar economic shifts and the potential consequences of these policies on the American consumer and the global economy. The goal, according to the speakers, is to reorient the global economy's rules of trade.
  • President Trump's trade war aims to reorient the rules of the global economy.
  • The tariffs are considered a tax, but the burden is not solely on American consumers.
  • The trade deficit is a key metric for the administration, and the discussion questions whether this strategy will actually reduce it.

Shownotes Transcript

Breitbart’s Economic and Finance Editor, John Carney, and the Urban Institute’s Jim Parrott return to Inside Economics to discuss the motivations and endgame of President Trump’s global trade war, tax and spending policy, and what will happen with Fannie and Freddie. The upshot of the conversation: the trade war isn’t going to end soon, and a recession is dead-ahead.

Guests: John Carney, Finance and Economics Editor at Breitbart & Jim Parrott, Nonresident Fellow at the Urban Institute  

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]). We would love to hear from you. 

 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View).