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J
Jonathon Hazell
M
Mark Zandi
Jonathon Hazell认为，2020年疫情爆发前的低通胀时期也值得研究，因为这其中存在着所谓的“扁平菲利普斯曲线”难题。他与合著者在一篇论文中指出，20世纪90年代后的低通胀和之前的高通胀波动可以用两个因素来解释：扁平的菲利普斯曲线和通胀预期逐渐稳定。菲利普斯曲线是理解通胀的核心框架，它将当前通胀与通胀预期和失业率联系起来。低失业率和高通胀预期都会推高当前通胀。在70年代和80年代，通胀波动大的原因是通胀预期不稳定，这源于当时货币政策的不稳定性。1985年后，美联储信誉的逐渐增强使得通胀预期更加稳定，从而抑制了通胀波动。即使在失业率很低的情况下，通胀也不太可能大幅上升。通过构建和研究区域层面的价格通胀指数，他们发现在控制了总体因素（如美联储政策和通胀目标）的影响后，区域内通胀与失业率的联动性非常稳定，这支持了他们的观点。
Deep Dive
The discussion delves into why people, particularly workers, dislike inflation, focusing on the perception that wages do not keep up with rising prices.
- Traditional economists argue that wages should rise with prices, but this paper suggests that workers need to take costly actions to ensure their wages keep up.
- The paper posits that real wages might not change during inflation because workers are exerting costs in the background to catch up with prices.
- Survey evidence supports the idea that people dislike the feeling that their wages are not keeping up with inflation.
Shownotes Transcript