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cover of episode Every Rose Has Its Thorn

Every Rose Has Its Thorn

2025/5/2
logo of podcast Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
AI Deep Dive Transcript
People
C
Cris deRitis
D
Dante DeAntonio
M
Marisa DiNatale
M
Mark Zandi
Topics
Mark Zandi: 我认为就业市场仍然强劲，是避免经济衰退的关键，但它正变得脆弱，容易受到贸易战等因素的影响。如果贸易战继续下去，没有缓和的迹象，那么经济衰退的风险就会大大增加。 Marisa DiNatale: 失业救济金申请人数的增加和持续领取失业救济金人数的增加表明，裁员可能正在增加，求职也变得更加困难。企业在面对关税政策的不确定性时，首先会停止招聘，而不是立即大规模裁员。 Cris deRitis: 第一季度GDP下降0.3%，主要原因是为应对关税而增加的进口导致净出口下降。尽管国内需求强劲，但消费支出增长放缓。关税和政府支出削减对GDP数据有明显影响。 Dante DeAntonio: 四月份的就业报告数据虽然看似良好，但数据已经过时，未能反映四月份早些时候发生的事件的影响。就业增长与前几个月大致持平，但制造业工时下降，运输仓储业就业增长可能不可持续，这些都暗示经济正在减速。

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Moody’s Analytics colleague Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to recap the April jobs report, along with the potpourri of other economic data released this week. Marisa dives into other labor market data, Cris tackles GDP, and Mark discusses consumer confidence. All along the way, Mark points out the thorns in recent data. The team also provides an update on their recession probabilities. 

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Guest: Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director of Economic Research

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]). We would love to hear from you. 

 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View).