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cover of episode Labor Market Yellow Flags

Labor Market Yellow Flags

2025/6/7
logo of podcast Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Dante
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Marissa
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Mark
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Dante: 五月份的就业报告喜忧参半。表面上看，新增就业人数略高于预期，失业率也维持在较低水平。但是，深入分析后发现，就业增长主要集中在医疗保健和休闲酒店等少数行业，而其他行业的表现则相对疲软。更令人担忧的是，过去几个月的就业数据持续向下修正，这表明劳动力市场可能正在放缓。我认为，尽管表面数据看起来还不错，但实际情况可能比我们看到的要疲软得多。 Marisa: 我同意Dante的观点，三月份的就业数据修正幅度是自2001年以来最大的，这通常是经济衰退或衰退后的迹象。此外，联邦政府就业的削减也对统计机构造成了影响，这可能会影响数据的质量。我认为，这份报告令人担忧，经济衰退的可能性仍然很高。 Mark: 劳动力市场的数据确实喜忧参半。一方面，失业率仍然很低，但另一方面，劳动力增长已经放缓，甚至出现萎缩。我认为，移民政策的收紧可能会限制失业率的上升，但这并不意味着经济没有问题。我担心，如果就业增长持续放缓，甚至出现负增长，可能会引发经济衰退。

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The May jobs report shows 139,000 jobs added, slightly above expectations. However, downward revisions to previous months' data reveal a weaker underlying trend. Job growth is concentrated in healthcare and leisure/hospitality, with other sectors showing weakness. The diffusion index is at a low 50%, indicating a slowing job market.
  • 139,000 jobs added in May
  • Downward revisions to previous months' data totaling 95,000 jobs
  • Job growth concentrated in healthcare and leisure/hospitality
  • Diffusion index at 50%, indicating a slowing job market

Shownotes Transcript

Dante joins Mark and Marisa for a rare Cris-free Saturday morning podcast to discuss the May jobs report. Given the report's weakness, the team is equally baffled by the positive news headlines and surging stock market on Friday. The team dissects the large downward revisions to the payroll numbers in recent months and whether this signals a recession ahead. They also debate whether the low unemployment rate is giving a false signal about underlying weakness in the labor market. 

 

Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]). We would love to hear from you. 

 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View).