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cover of episode Rules of Thumb
People
C
Chris deRitis
M
Marisa DiNatale
M
Mark Zandi
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Marisa DiNatale: 我认为特朗普总统根据《国际紧急经济权力法》颁布的关税是非法的，但上诉法院已经暂缓执行原判，这件事可能会通过法院系统一直上诉到最高法院。目前围绕关税的公告存在太多的不确定性和波动性，其他国家为什么要达成任何协议？ Chris deRitis: 我认为评估关税的实际操作非常复杂，最终的关税率可能会略低，但目前我们还不能有把握地改变关税率的评估。 Mark Zandi: 我认为我们越来越接近关税开始影响物价的那一天，我们的经验法则是，有效关税率每增加一个百分点，通货膨胀率或物价就会上涨10个基点。如果这个经验法则成立，那么目前的通货膨胀率大约是2.5%，到明年这个时候将达到3.5%到4%之间。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion starts with an overview of the ongoing legal battles surrounding President Trump's tariffs. The experts analyze the potential impact of these tariffs on inflation and prices, with predictions ranging from 3.5% to 4% inflation by next year.
  • Federal court declared some of President Trump's tariffs illegal
  • Appeals court temporarily stayed the decision
  • Uncertainty around the tariffs' long-term effects
  • Rule of thumb: each percentage point increase in effective tariff rate raises inflation by 10 basis points
  • Potential inflation increase to 3.5%-4% by next year

Shownotes Transcript

The Inside Economics crew talks about the latest tariff news, as well as the reconciliation bill making its way through Congress and the long-term macroeconomic consequences of the bill. Mark gives some rules of thumb about the tariff impact on inflation, as well as the debt-to-GDP ratio and long-term bond yields. Finally, the team answers several listener questions and plays the stats game.

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]). We would love to hear from you. 

 

To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View).