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cover of episode Shaken, Not Stirred

Shaken, Not Stirred

2025/4/25
logo of podcast Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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C
Chris deRitis
M
Marisa DiNatale
M
Mark Zandi
R
Richard Barkham
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Mark Zandi: 我们团队在2023-2024年美国GDP和CPI预测方面获得了最高的准确性奖。这要归功于团队的技能、洞察力、以及我们没有预测经济衰退的决策。当然，也有一部分运气成分。此外，移民的激增也对经济的稳定发展起到了关键作用，增加了劳动力供应，缓解了通货膨胀压力，这超出了我们的预期。 Marisa DiNatale: 我同意Mark的观点。我们团队的预测准确性是技能、流程和情景分析的结果，但也包含一部分运气。 Cris deRitis: 我认为我们获奖的一个重要原因是，大多数经济学家预测2023-2024年会出现经济衰退，而我们没有。这与历史经验相符，因为2021-2022年通货膨胀高企，美联储积极加息，收益率曲线倒挂。然而，我们没有预测衰退，这可能是我们胜出的关键。

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Richard Barkham, Senior Economic Advisor at CBRE, joins the podcast to discuss the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy. Richard is decidedly more sanguine than the podcast hosts. Mark, Cris and Marisa also discuss the economic team’s recent win for Most Accurate U.S. Forecast for 2023-2024 by Consensus Economics. They debate how much of the win can be chalked up to skill, luck, or the Chief Economist.

Guest: Richard Barkham – Senior Economic Advisor, CBRE)

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]). We would love to hear from you. 

 

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