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cover of episode The State of the American Consumer

The State of the American Consumer

2024/11/27
logo of podcast Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Cris deRitis
M
Marisa DiNatale
M
Mark Zandi
S
Scott Hoyt
Topics
Scott Hoyt认为，美国消费者支出强劲，推动GDP增长，但存在能源价格上涨和信贷收紧等风险。圣诞节销售额预计增长2.5%-3%，实际增长强劲，但不会导致经济过热。高资产价格是潜在风险，资产价格大幅下跌可能影响消费者支出。低收入消费者已用光疫情期间积累的储蓄，他们的消费行为变得更加谨慎。 Mark Zandi同意Scott Hoyt的观点，认为消费者支出将继续推动经济增长，但不会导致经济过热。他认为高资产价格是主要的风险因素。 Cris deRitis指出，尽管信用卡利率上升，但整体消费者财务状况良好，但低收入消费者面临压力。他认为，预期的关税上调可能导致消费者提前消费，但影响程度和时间尚不明确。 Marisa DiNatale认为，零售商业绩差异主要源于各自的经营策略，而非消费者行为的根本性转变。高端消费者支出依然强劲，但中高端消费者可能正在减少支出，部分原因是转向服务支出。她认为消费者信心指数受党派因素影响较大，消费者可能无法区分名义收入和实际收入，这导致他们对经济的感受与实际支出行为不一致。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast opens with a discussion on the state of the American consumer, focusing on their role in the broader economy and expectations for the upcoming Christmas buying season.
  • Consumers have been powering the broader economy.
  • The team expects consumer spending to continue its strong performance.
  • There are consumer-related puzzles that the team aims to solve.

Shownotes Transcript

Moody’s Analytics own Scott Hoyt joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the state of the American consumer, as the critical Christmas buying season is set to begin. Consumers have been powering the broader economy, and the team expects that to continue.  But there are a number of consumer-related puzzles, which the team works to solve.

Guest: Scott Hoyt, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn