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The Fed's next market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A sell-off on the street as Fed Chair Powell warns of continued volatility, saying tariffs are even higher than the central bank expected. All the headlines as market moving comments straight ahead. Plus, gold's dark side, the precious metal hitting yet another new high today. But one of our traders says the magnitude of the move is actually a potential cause for concern. And later, mining the moment for critical minerals, a credit check on American Express.

And will D.R. Horton be another bummer for the builders? I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso and Guy Adami. We start off with the markets taking a massive leg lower after some big headlines out of the Fed. Chair Jerome Powell speaking policy at the Economic Club of Chicago saying government policy could put changes to the central bank's monetary policy on hold.

The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated and the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth. Both survey and market-based measures of near-term inflation expectations have moved up significantly, with survey participants pointing to tariffs.

Major averages finishing sharply lower, though off their worst levels of the day. The Dow down 700 points, the S&P 500 falling more than 2 percent and the Nasdaq dropping more than 3 percent. The 10-year yield also taking a hit on the back of today's comments, falling back below 4.3 percent. So what should we make of the Fed's comments, Guy?

Well, they're not going to bail out the stock market. I think that's pretty clear. And I'm not going to bow to the will of the administration in terms of lowering yields anytime soon, because quite frankly, nothing out there justifies it, I don't think. I mean, if you think the stock market is scaring the Fed, I think you're wrong. I don't think they're focused on that. I think the

bond market last week absolutely probably scared him, but that's not their mandate either. So to me, he said everything that he's been saying for quite some time and the market's just starting to listen to him. Yeah, Karen, you made that point too. Like, what did we hear that was new today? I know. If you were waiting for, if you were there out there expecting a cut

from him, I think that didn't make sense because we know he has this dual mandate. One side of it is in pretty good shape, right? The labor market is really in good shape. The other has a huge question mark overhanging it. And he really doesn't want to make the same mistake again and letting inflation sort of, you know, potentially run amok. So I didn't think there was anything that was surprising. And yet I was surprised that the market was surprised.

Yeah. Although he did, it did seem like there was a little bit more acknowledgement of sort of the bad outcomes of all this. The dual mandate goals being intention, I thought was an interesting phrase. And also the need for price stability in order to have a strong labor market. But that says maybe I'll do something different.

At that point. Right. Not right now, I think. Right. Yeah, I heard that, Mel. I heard, first of all, I heard a Fed that I thought was digging in a little bit more today into their stance and that basically current policy is forcing them away from their goals or at least and that they won't be forced away from their goals. And in fact, this was there was a preview. Feds Hammock was speaking earlier in the day and this was at 12 o'clock. And I think it was really setting the table for this, which is that

We are not going to, I think, something about respond to the twists and turns of the market, I think was a quote. And I think the dynamic here, it's kind of funny or ironic or not at all. But I would make an argument that our Treasury secretary is somebody that probably for a long time wanted the Fed, lived in a world where I think was very critical of the Federal Reserve. I'm not, you know, maybe I'm putting policy words in his mouth, but

I think Scott Besson historically was someone that probably felt the Fed was always too quick to jump to the market's rescue. There's a lot of people that have been kind of fiscal hawks on the investor side in the hedge fund community. And I think this is exactly what you probably want to hear the Fed saying, except for if we are at a time where it's an unprecedented dynamic in terms of what we're seeing and what the market has to respond to an uncertainty. You know, you get this place where if the Fed's not going to move, you know,

Tells the market, no go. It also tells you there's no stagflation, right? So if he's not worried about the employment side, there can't be stagflation. If he's not worried about saving the market, then who knows where inflation is going right now. If he's talking about tariffs, how can you talk about tariffs without knowing what the after effect is? He's only there to react to the after effect.

not the pre-tariff. Would you agree with that? I mean, yeah, I thought it was clear, yes, the Fed is going to wait to see the impact on the economy. I thought that there was an acknowledgement of stagflation when he said that they could be in the challenging position of finding that the goals of the dual mandate would be intention. So, in other words, employment and labor, and that there is going to be inflation because of the tariffs. And so, therefore, you put those two together, and those seem to be the ingredients. Then not employment, then jobs will drop. But if you had to pick between the two...

out of those mandates, I would say he's got to save jobs versus attack inflation. That's my opinion. Well, it seems like he's saying that he's got to get a hold of price stability in order to address weakness in the labor market. I don't know. That was my interpretation. Well, it's 12 months ago, almost, I think it was 12 months ago, that he said in response to a question, this is Jerome Powell, I see neither the stag nor the flation. And that's coming back to bite him in the you-know-what because that's where we're in the midst of right now. And if you start to see an uptick in the unemployment rate,

which I think in this environment, it's almost inevitable. Then you have stagflation right in front of you. And regardless of what they do, it's going to be the wrong thing. So they're better off just sitting on their hands. We may all have heard for a long time that Fed Chair Powell is not going to do anything for a long time. But the markets were pricing in a move.

pretty soon. If not May, then probably June. I mean, June was fairly high. So there has to be some recalibration in terms of expectations, even if you guys didn't think anything was going to happen. To be fair to Jerome Powell, the tariff mandate wasn't on the table at the time that he said that.

Fair. There was no stag. There was no inflation. Inflation was there, and we were on the precipice of a bit of a slowdown. These tariffs just sort of put the match on the top of the tinderbox, but that's just me. Okay, you want to give them a pass, that's fine, but you shouldn't make glib comments like that sitting in that seat, understanding that you don't know what's down the road. As Jamie Dimon can, you know, right, say, yeah, I shouldn't have said get over it. Right. Right.

But maybe there's something else to do besides some way to address financial conditions. Right. He still has $35 billion rolling off per month of MBS. That's the way to actually go right at what they're trying to go right at, which is mortgage rates.

They're down to $5 billion of treasuries. That's okay. That's a little number or insignificant to the greater scheme of things. But $35 billion, they have not adjusted yet. If they adjust that, it could have a dramatic effect on bringing down rates. And look, Powell at $130, you can look at your intraday chart of the S&P and you can see what it did. It went down almost straight down 2% for recovering a little bit at the end of the day. But I

I'll also say this wasn't really about the Fed today. We were looking for any reason to sell this market. OK, we came to we rallied back to the top end of a downtrend that basically started depending on when you look at it. Most of it's, you know, really February 20, February 21. We've had bear crosses, death crosses, whatever you want to call them. They're not they're not a rule. But but they were very foreboding, foretelling in the case of the semis only two weeks ago.

So you've got the S&P where the 50 day is crossing over the 200 days, basically telling you the longer term trend is down. Same thing in the Nasdaq. And the market have rallied up to a level where I just think that the market was looking for this opportunity today. We had a start last night with the comments on NVIDIA. It played into today. And all you needed was a Fed to say, I'm not, you know, I'm not.

I'm not your answer here. So, yes, the Fed comments, as we've all said, were important, but not necessarily different than what one might have expected to hear. This was a market that is not ready just very early into early earnings season. And all we hear from everybody, whether it's corporate CEOs, even the Bank of Canada today said, we are no longer giving forecasts. We're giving scenarios. We actually think that based upon trade policy, we're going to be able to do this.

What we've formerly always done is no longer what we can do. There's a central bank saying that. You know, yesterday we heard about scenario analysis in some of the after-hours comments. $5 difference in the top of the range versus the bottom of the bear case range. I mean, that's almost useless.

And those are the terms. I think that was the term that the Bank of Canada said. Right. Forecasts right now are useless. Yep. For more on all this, let's bring in Obligely Financial Group Chief Investment Officer Peter Bookbar. He's also a CNBC contributor. Peter, always great to get your take on things. You say the economy and the stock market are tied at the hip.

We've had quite a roller coaster ride. Is there anything I mean, in Chair Powell doesn't sound like he's going to do anything to save the market. So what's your take on what was said today and the market reaction?

Well, I think you said it right earlier. He specifically said that you need price stability first in order to lay the foundation for a healthy labor market. And that's what he said as he was raising interest rates a few years ago. That was the reason. So that tells me that while maybe at some point they respond to an unemployment rate that's going to 5 or 6 percent if

At least right now, inflation is still their main focus. He retires in May 2026. He's known as Mr. Transitory, and he's not going to give that up.

But if the markets froze up and there was a big problem, I think they would use the standing repo facility or temporary QE like the Bank of England did. That would be their first sort of use of a tool. But they're not cutting interest rates to save tariff policy that gets us into trouble.

Do you agree with that, Tack? I mean, I'm just curious because there are some people who say that the Fed should be more proactive, knowing that the tariffs were much bigger than we had expected, seeing the reaction the markets already seen, not just the reaction of the financial markets, but also the sentiment surveys, which Chair Powell acknowledged, the steep declines in sentiment when it comes to businesses as well as households.

I understand that belief. I think the economy is on very weak knees right now. But on the other hand, if they did start to cut and then we completely rolled back all the tariffs, then what? Does he then take back what he just cut? So I think he's really left in a very difficult situation. And he has no choice but to wait to see what the end game is with tariffs, what the actual

rates are, particularly with China and what these deals are like? Because how do you sort of get ahead of that until you know what the playing field looks like? Peter, last week, the bond market rightly so scared a lot of people. Did we dodge a bullet or is that just a tremor?

I think it's a tremor. I think the downward trend in the dollar, treasuries, foreigners that own about $30 trillion of stocks, treasuries and corporates, they are deciding to find other homes for that money. And if we're going to truly cut the trade deficit, we'll obviously have less

capital flows that come back into the U.S. So I think this is just more tremors, as you say, and that I can't rule out another test of 5 percent at some point in the 10-year yield. Peter, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. Is there a point that the unemployment numbers, what point would you think that would be that would force him to move even without clarity on the tariff and inflation situation?

I think if we started to see, call it two to three tenths increases in the unemployment rate for a couple of months in a row, he's going to respond. I mean, he doesn't want to see a dramatic slowdown and he's sitting there doing nothing. But he'll do something. But there are a couple of risks here. Let's just say he starts, he cuts three or four times as the market's priced in right now.

Well, there's risk that the 10-year yield goes higher, just as it did after he cut 100 basis points. Well, we've already seen some vulnerability in the dollar. But what if he cuts and follows through and the dollar index, instead of being at 100, goes to 90 or 85? Well, then and then oil goes to $100. And you see other types of inflation picking up because of that weakness in the dollar. So there's no free lunch here that the Fed can present to us.

just by cutting short-term interest rates. There are a lot of other possible negative consequences that can come of that. Peter, thanks for your time. Good to see you.

Thanks, Melissa. Peter Brook for our politically financial. So Trump is really in a box. I mean, there are really no alternatives here except to stand pat at this point, it sounds like. I think that's exactly I don't see any. I don't unless the external pressure is such that he forces his hand, which I don't think is going to happen. There's no reason to move here. I mean, if it's if it's a stock market thing, you're barking up the wrong tree, I think. But aren't they always late?

They have to be late by their nature. It's not an insult. They have to be late because they have to react to something. They can't react in thinking where the puck is going. They have to just skate to where the puck is now. By the way, tariffs can be deflationary, right? Demand destruction. If you're in a recession and nobody's buying anything because they can't afford it. So both sides of that dual mandate work in tandem. So you really can't attack.

one or the other. And what we left out was the basis trade is an $80 billion trade with 100 times leverage. So when we see a rise in yields, that's an $80 trillion effect in the Treasury market

when it's maximized. That's the reason why yields are rising. Well, you know, today, if you're looking for a glass half full, it's actually that the Treasury market kind of behaved as it should have. In other words, you saw a flight to quality. It was only 32 basis points of a rally, not 32 basis points, 0.32 points of a rally. I don't know what that translated into. It probably rallied five or six basis points. But but

This is the type of a day when you saw equities in free fall. The dollar sold off almost 1%. By the way, euro hit 38-month highs against the dollar. Swiss franc, the all-time gold standard. We're going to talk about gold in a second. But that which represents gold went to all-time highs. Good prelude to that conversation. But I'll just get back to the retail sales number we had this morning, which looked great on the surface, is once again defines the Fed in a box. It tells you that some of the numbers and some of the pull forward here means very little to what we really have and that, in fact,

Because of tariff policy, people did something they're not going to do next month, which was buy. All right, let's get to dollar gold and yields. Another warning sign potentially developing in the market, the traditional relationship between the dollar and rates appears to be breaking down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is markedly higher in April, even as the greenback comes under pressure. At the same time, gold prices continue to soar, with the precious metal popping more than 3% today to set its 22nd record of this year. So what do these things take in together?

tell you about where we are, Guy? I think this is collectively something we've been talking about for over a year and a half now, easily. And the environment that the debt problem out there is such that people are starting to figure out you need to be in gold. Central banks over the last four years have bought gold in record amount. And we also said that there's going to be a point in time

where the dollar starts to fall and yields start to go higher and people are going to be looking around scratching their head. Janet Yellen over the weekend was discussing that. Pull up the dollar-yen chart. Below 142 today, the lowest level we saw since August of last year. I think we all remember what happened on August 5th. So these huge dislocations, as Tim just said, in currencies, global bond markets, people are figuring out that gold is the place to be, and it makes a lot of sense to me. This is exactly the environment that gold works in.

And it's telling a really dangerous story, I think. Yeah, kudos to you and Tim for totally being on the gold gravy train, I guess. But Bitcoin has also performed. And, you know, we had been concerned that Bitcoin had really been a momentum, you know, risk on, risk off. But it's

proving to be something else. Yeah. You're mentioning all the sort of highs against the U.S. dollar. Yep. Swissy, yen, euro. This really puts pressure on those banks, though, to start cutting. Yeah.

Well, it's interesting. So the ECB basically is going to resume cutting. They kind of told you that today. And historically, this is what's what's fascinating about right now. We dollar dollar euro Dixie basket dollar yen was trading on central bank differentials. He had a bank in Japan that was playing around for four years. So, of course, the end went weaker and weaker.

The the central bank differentials between the ECB and the Fed were such that the dollar was strengthening and it was pretty clear. Now, ECB is still telling you they're going to ease. And yet the euro rallies one percent today. So it is getting back to, I think, kind of I wouldn't go as far as to say regime change. But this is clearly we're seeing a lot of repatriation of assets, not just people leaving the United States, but also I think you're seeing a lot of U.S.

investors moving to other places around the world. So I think that's fascinating. And I don't think that that abates necessarily. It's surprising that we hit fresh levels when, in fact, markets had rallied back a lot. You'd think that would be at the peak of a market low. So maybe if you go back to 2000, 2018, we had trade war 1.0. Gold rallied aggressively during that. This is much worse or much more impactful than that. So you would expect gold to rally much more than it did in 2018. And it is.

If you look at those correlations, if you have the dollar and gold, that makes sense. The only outlier yields. If you put in the basis trade over yields, that makes sense why that's the only outlier. There's got to be an unwind that we're not looking at because the dollar and gold to everything that guy just said makes sense why the dollar is underperforming and gold is outperforming. Yields don't make sense. That's the basis trade.

Meantime, Semi is among the biggest losers in today's sell-off. Nvidia dropping nearly 7%. It had been down more than 10% at its lows. That after the company warned last night of a more than $5 billion charge tied to chip exports to China. Taiwan Semi and ASML Holdings also under pressure today, throwing AMD, which also said it would have a write-down because of its exposure in terms of a chip specifically made for the China export market.

We also got a headline from NVIDIA indicating that it had received $18 billion in orders at the beginning of Q1. So that $5.5 billion write-down reflects that $18 billion in orders at the beginning of Q1. Yeah, we were talking about just before the show. That would have been a nice margin, a little bit higher margin on those orders.

chips than I would have thought because their highest margin chips are in the low 70 range. So it's not surprising that it's sold off more than that because you don't get the feeling like, okay, now we know exactly where we are. We have no idea. So it's understandable why it's trading so poorly.

The technicians are, and I'm not one of them, but I do care about technicals as part of an overall mosaic or whatever you want to say. It sets up a picture. If you look at a 10-year chart of AMD, this has been one of the great growth stories over that last decade. We're at some really key, if you look at long-term uptrend on a monthly chart going back 10 years, we're right there at support. If you look at a lot of semis, the damage that's been done, the question is,

Has technical damage been done in a way that these things need to go lower here? This is a very important level. And you mentioned AMD. That's a fascinating chart. When you look at the chart in NVIDIA, it looks like it got down to $92. I think the next level, you have to go back to the $75 level that was back in April of 2024.

I think you could definitely trade down to that level. This licensing that they have to apply or pay for, that's never going to take place. That's a negotiating tactic. That'll never happen. It has never happened. Or you can count on one hand or only using one finger how many times it has happened. It's not happening. Which finger?

Coming up more on today's sell-off as volatility continues to grip global markets, where investors are seeking shelter from the storm and their top concerns during all the stock swings. But first, minerals on the mind, the latest tariff target from the Trump administration. The names that could feel the impact next do not go anywhere. Fast Money is back in two.

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Welcome back to Fast Money. President Trump opening an investigation to potential new tariffs on imports of all U.S. critical minerals, which go into batteries and consumer electronics. U.S. rare earth companies, MP Materials and Albemarle. Among the names moving on today's news, CNBC's Pippa Stevens is looking at the money.

and the movers in the space. Hey, Pippa. - Hey, Melissa. Well, increasing domestic production of critical minerals has become a goal of this administration with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum calling to quote, "mine baby mine," but it's not that easy because while the U.S. does have mineral reserves, they're expensive to get out of the ground.

Still, there is some domestic activity. MP Materials mines rare earths out in California. The stock is jumping because China, the dominant player, has halted exports. Albemarle has domestic lithium operations while London operates a nickel mine out in Michigan. And then Rio Tinto and Freeport also have copper mines out west.

But it's not nearly enough to meet domestic demand. The U.S. is 100 percent dependent on imports for 12 critical minerals, including graphite, and more than 50 percent dependent for another 31, including rare earths, cobalt, uranium and nickel. That's according to the WRI. Plus, as Brian Beal from Benchmark told me, tariffs alone will not be enough to bolster domestic production. There's got to be permitting reform as well as stable price signals that mobilize Wall Street. Melissa.

I mean, there has to be just entire sort of chains built, supply chains in effect, because, for instance, MP, they're really heavy on heavy focus on light rare earths as opposed to the heavy rare earths, which are very expensive and difficult to separate.

Yeah, and not to mention that a lot of that is ultimately going to China to be refined because China was very strategic in the sense that when they do have a lot of rare earths, but they don't have things like lithium. So instead, they focused on getting their refining and processing and smelting for copper up and running. And so a lot of the ore that's mined around the world goes to China. So in the case of MP materials, it's mined here, goes to China, then comes back here. But it really is about creating all these new supply chains. And in the U.S., our challenge, of course, is permitting materials.

It takes 29 years on average for a new mine to come online. That is the slowest in the world, behind only Zambia. And so the administration is talking about mining, but the reality is much different on the ground.

Yeah. Pippa, thank you. Pippa Stevens. Got to go to you, Gross. You've been on MP for a long time. Since the start of the year. And China does 70 percent of the extraction for the globe. MP provides 12 to 15 percent of global supply. But as Pippa was saying, it all get the refining process. China does 85 percent of it. The key to this stock play is that MP is the most direct, the only direct supplier.

rare earth mining company that you can buy here and feel comfortable with. The stock has basically doubled. I'm half out of my position. I'm probably going to roll the dice on the balance of the 50. I think it has room to go higher. Yeah. But of course, it's more than just rare earths, as Pip had mentioned. There's lithium, there's nickel, there's copper and all of this. I think copper is fascinating here, right? Because it's called Dr. Copper because it tends to be a gauge of the economic dynamics. And if we're so worried about it,

But copper prices, after tanking a couple of weeks ago, have really held and kind of supported. I think PGM, so precious metals, platinum, platinum, and don't quit on silver. I think silver's rallied 15 percent and outperformed gold in the last two weeks. Look at an album moral chart. We're trading levels we saw in 2020. The roundtrip has been extraordinary in a word, but they're about 17 percent of the lithium processing in this country. So if you think lithium is part of this whole thing, album moral here, just on a technical level, is pretty interesting.

Coming up, some earnings action to bring you SL Green, CSX, and Alcoa, all reporting results, the details, and the numbers in the quarters next. Plus, stocks getting hit in another rough day for markets, and as volatility spikes, so does investor anxiety. The latest sentiment read from Investopedia and how people are managing their money through all these market swings. You're watching Fast Money live from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square. Back right after this. Amazon has everything for every kind of birthday. Whether that's a three-tier cake stand...

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Welcome back to Fast Money. A check on some stocks moving after hours. SL Green reporting a miss on revenue for its latest quarter. Rail operator CSX missing on the top and the bottom line, setting operational challenges in the beginning of the year. And Alcoa surpassing earnings estimates but missing on revenues. The company also reaffirming its full year guidance.

And checkout shares have hurt, notching its best day ever after a source told her own Scott Wapner that Pershing Square's stake in the company is significantly higher than previously disclosed. The nearly 20 percent stake makes Pershing the company's second largest shareholder.

That's an interesting twist here. What do you want to trade? It is an interesting twist. It hurts. I mean, we've seen Bill Ackman do these sort of, I guess, capital structure positions. This is one highly indebted, right? And that's worked out well for him. He's a pretty shrewd investor, I think. I'm not surprised people would follow him in. It's a big pop, but it's left. Right, right. Huge level in CSX. I mean, it's the levels we saw to the downside, I think, the fall of 2022.

The rails, the transports have been under pressure now for the last nine months, at least, if not longer. I think that's telling its own story. I think CSX has to hold right here at 27-ish. Coming up, volatility, inflation, a recession, the fear sweeping over the market and investors and how they're handling their money in all this volatility. The latest read on sentiment and how much trust traders have in this market when Fast Money returns.

Welcome back to Fast Money Stocks, sharply lower after Fed Chair Powell reiterated concerns over the economic impact of tariffs. The S&P down more than 2 percent, the Dow shedding 700 points and the Nasdaq leading the losses, dropping over 3 percent. Individual investor anxiety is running high amid the tough tape, no surprise, according to a new survey from Investopedia. Editor-in-Chief Caleb Silver joins us here on set with the latest findings. Caleb, always great to see you. It's interesting to read the results because it sounds like people believe that we are in a recession.

But they're somewhat worried right now about what's going on. You would think they'd be much more worried if they thought we were in a recession. Yeah, 44% say they're extremely worried. About 73% say they're somewhat worried. What's really interesting, though, is you get this high anxiety on the one hand, and then you've got this won't stop believing on the other, because a lot of them, 30% or so, are still trying to buy the dip in their favorite stocks.

We've seen that behavior if you look at results from Vanditrak and others. Retail investors have been trying to catch the falling knife here in a lot of different other favorite stocks. Meanwhile, they're as worried as they've been about inflation or recession, raw relations with China, tariffs. Everything has got them concerned, just not doing too much about it.

And let's be clear, when was the survey taken? Did it capture all of the turmoil? Absolutely. We ran it from Friday to last night because I wanted to capture everything after the reversal on the tariffs, after the smartphone stuff, after all of it, just to see where people stood. And people are worried but don't know what to do except either wait or try to buy some of their favorite stocks on discount. Today might have been a good day to do it. Really rough out there and just getting more and more anxious.

as we get more and more cloudiness around the policy. -When I know you're coming on, I try to guess what's going to be the top concern. I never would have guessed inflation's back on top. Where do you think that came from? -Well, it comes from tariffs, and people have heard the drumbeat loud and loud enough about tariffs lead to inflation full stop, whether it's consumers that are going to get their prices

passed on to them or businesses that are going to have to pay more, which makes our put our hands in our pockets when it comes to spending. You've seen the sentiment numbers. You've seen the inflation expectation numbers. This is in people's psyche right now. And if you listen to the deltas of the world, the Walmarts of the world, they're telling you people are just not spending like they were on the discretionary stuff. They're getting the needs, but they're even cutting back on those.

Now, you do find some readers getting a little bit more defensive. They're going to cash or cash equivalents. Yes, about one in 10 say they're going to cash or cash equivalents. That's CDs, money markets, piggy bank cash, call it what you want. And some people also pulling back a little bit into some ETFs. But what we're not seeing is this outright capitulation by retail investors, not at all. And we really haven't seen that in any of these downturns. They've

kind of tried to buy back in. Not everybody, but a good percentage are still trying to find the bottom here, see if they can get their favorite stocks on discount. It's just they don't know where that bottom is. I like the word cloud because it really shows you

who likes what, right? And so when you say favorite stocks, you're talking Amazon, Palantir, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple. They're really sticking to the NASDAQ 100s. Yeah, they love the NASDAQ 100s. These are their favorite stocks. We've been talking about this for years. They just keep buying the same stocks. And if you look at retail investor portfolios and some of the biggest ETFs, they look just like this. So they can't believe that they've fallen this far and just don't know when they're going to bottom out. But there's still some of them trying to buy them, some of them standing on the side. And

Right. Can't don't stop. Believe in won't stop. Believe in journey. Right. I mean, you have to go. That was a layup. But but it really has been such a journey for the investors here that they haven't had any reason to fear buying any dips for a long time, even going back to the Fed induced. I mean, that was the greatest time to buy stocks, really, probably in 20 years.

It seems as if they've really gotten scared by this. Is there some is it is it something existential with U.S. kind of status in the world? I mean, you've got depression on here is weighing in at a pretty. Are we defining this in different ways? Yeah. We also like to look at what our readers are searching for on our site. They're looking up that they're looking up 1987. They're looking up what happens in an extended recession to their portfolios, how to protect. And then you have people on the wild side saying, OK,

how can I buy inverse ETFs that will take advantage of this or bet the opposite way? So you've got some promiscuity along with a lot of people being very guarded right now. It's a fascinating time for us. And extra $10,000 is still going to individual stocks. Individual stocks. But right under that, you see they're going to get a lot more cautious with money market funds. So it's either I'm going to take a flyer or

I'm going to put it in the bank for now. Volunteer or cash. Yeah, volunteer or cash. What a choice. Caleb, always great to see you. Thank you. Caleb Silver, editor-in-chief of Investopedia. What do you make of this sticking to the NASDAQ 100? Well, I'm not that differently positioned than that. I mean, I like to buy not with the VIXs right around no man's land. You know, I'd much rather buy in the 40s.

or like to hedge when it's down in the 20. It closed it out on a 30 trade up to 35 and changed today. So I'm kind of no man's land, not doing anything. And I think you use this as a contraindicator when everyone gets on that side of the boat at a certain point. This seems pretty universal negative. You pointed out the percentages of people that are worried. And it was up to 77 or 73 percent as a whole.

I think we're getting close to that capitulatory moment. Not there yet. I think we could wallow around these levels sideways. All right. We want to note some worthwhile Fast Money content available to you. There's a new CNBC.com article out today based on Tim's four money traps to avoid in a volatile market. You can find it online.

on the Fast Money homepage after the show, of course. You'll also have insights like how to avoid money mistakes and a whole lot more. If you join us on June 5th for our next Fast Money live event, scan the QR code on your screen or head on over to cnbcevents.com backslash fastmoney to get your tickets.

Give us a clue. Money traps. Well, some of them we talk about all the time, which is that the wrong thing to be doing in a market is to be investing where you are overly anxious and you have money in the market you can't afford to lose. You make bad decisions. And ultimately, it really comes down to...

Invest in stocks. Karen, what do you say almost all the time when you go home long? It's as if you bought it at the close. It's as if you bought it at the close. Don't be waiting around for a better level on a stock you should be getting out of today. And if you want to find out what Guy's money traps are, you can join us on June 5th.

I'm filling in on my traps. Oh, boy. All right. Coming up, Lulu stretched thin how the retailer is losing market share in one key market and why it could mean more downward pressure for the stock. And a big day of earnings on deck. We're homing in on two names that will give us a read on the consumer and the housing market. What to expect from those results when Fast Money returns.

Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Lululemon dropping today and down nearly 35 percent this year. Jeffrey is publishing a note yesterday warning that Lulu is losing market share to private competitor Aloe Yoga in a key region, Miami. They go on to say fashion trends start on the coast and move inward. We anticipate lower sales and earnings in the U.S. for 2025. The analyst behind the note, Randy Connick, joins us now. His $220 price target on Lulu is one of the lowest on the street. You've been a bear on this one for

quite some time, Randy, and it's been a good call. You also point out that in addition to the trends moving from the coast inward, and so the assumption is that they're going to continue to lose market share as you go into the United States, that that belt bag was really an artificial boost to earnings that's just not going to be replicated.

Yeah, this company has, I think, a major problem. Look, we have to take a step back and think about what has transpired over the last few years. If you think about during COVID,

Lululemon was the it brand in the it space of athleisure. So that company dramatically catapulted its revenue base upward. And on top of that, the company got helped by that belt bag trend that you talked about. That lasted for a couple of years. But now, since our bearish call over the last couple of years, what we've seen is this idea that the company's hitting a growth wall. And in order to continue that growth across the board,

and maintain that high P.E. multiple that Wall Street loves, because Wall Street loves growth, the company started to go into non-core categories like the belt bag, like long ankle length skirts, sweatshirts with logos on top of it, even sweaters. This is not what made Lululemon famous 20 years ago. The company's just trying to stretch itself thin, and that's why we think there's a problem ahead.

Yeah. And there are also other missteps like the color palettes are all off. Right. And that stuff ends up on the markdown rack that guy likes to shop. You notice that. What does management need to do? Because they do want to emphasize newness. But you're just saying the newness that they are trying to emphasize at this point is the wrong kind of newness.

Look, I think this is just kicking the can down the road. The CEO of the company has proverbially talked about Nunes for literally about six months. And I think where the problem lies with the company is this, you have to kind of, they're in denial, right? So I think the fact on the ground from all of our research is that the company's losing market share. It's pretty obvious, right? Especially in markets like Miami. I was actually in China last week. The company has got growth there, but it may not be for long. But the

but the end of the day what the company is trying to tell the market is look our numbers are slowing but the reason they're slowing is because of self-inflicted wounds of uh of not we don't have enough newness whether it's color whether it's pattern uh and whether or whether it's new categories right so the problem is the newness has been in place for the last few months and numbers continue to slow uh in fact if you look at the holiday numbers

They're actually pretty scary because the company posted about a flattish type of number in the United States market during the holiday. Their e-commerce business was only up 4% during the fourth quarter. That is in the space of the best holiday season we've seen in 20 years. So something's wrong here, and I think it's just market share. They're losing market share. They're losing it quick. Their core customer is going elsewhere to these competitors, and that's a problem going forward.

Randy, it's Karen. Thanks. Good call so far. What about some of their back to work stuff for men? I actually thought they were getting some traction there. People going back to the office in their pants. Tim? Well, Tim wears those shirts on air all the time. I'm not wearing one now, but Randy, yes. But my color palette I know is right on. I'm just not wearing the stretchy one that says let him cook.

Exactly. Great looking tie. So look, I think the men's business has been great. Although the men's business is growing, it's not accelerating any longer. So what does that mean? It means that men have had their fill of the pants thus far in the last few years. But now we're kind of starting to play that out. Right. And there's competition in that space. Obviously, Biori and others, Roan, et cetera. So I think the problem with Lululemon, people forget, is

is Lulu's not just competing with other sportswear brands and other activewear brands. Lululemon is competing with hundreds, thousands of other apparel companies around

around the world. And that's the biggest issue here. So, you know, men's has been great. It's not going to last. Belt bag has been great. It's already starting to fade. The core is slowing. International is great, but not accelerating any longer either. And now this company's at peak sales per foot, peak margins, peak earnings. We think that all comes crumbling down in 2025. Wow. Randy, thanks so much for joining us.

Thanks, guys. Really appreciate it. The belt bag. I know you won't leave home without your belt bag. Guy, are you wearing the belt bag I got you for Christmas? Every opportunity I get. It's a good thing they don't show below deck.

Listen, first of all, congratulations to Weet Rand. I mean, they've been spot on. $226 was the August low. It's probably headed there. Big inventory build last quarter. Margin's been deteriorating. And this is on the cusp of becoming this generation's Under Armour, it feels like. Too many private companies. Too much competition. Men's. There's Vineyard Vine.

There's Viore, there's Aloe for that. But men's have their own stretchy golf pants and everything else that they're wearing. There's a million competitors. It's the same thing with Nike. It's too fragmented. You can't look at the stock. You're catching a falling knife. Oddly enough, China has been growing for them between 25 and 40 percent, but that only makes up 12 to 15 percent of total sales.

If they fail in North America, the stock fails. With tariffs, who knows? Yeah, no, I wanted to add that China point. This has been a big push for them, somewhere they hope is international as well. But China, you've got to think that's hampered a lot. There are no buyers here, aside from buyers of those Lulu stretchy men's shirts. My issue with Lulu is not necessarily...

the competitive and the loss of their it factor. I mean, I just think it's discretionary spend is going to hit a wall. I thought it was discretionary spend was going to hit a wall a year ago. I was short Lulu for a while, I was short Nike for a while. I ultimately, in Lulu's case, I think I sold it the day before it dropped in a massive way. Give Randy a ton of credit. He's not been short this stock for a couple of weeks. I mean, he's had this call for probably a year and a half. Good for him.

him. Coming up, earnings season up and running, and it's not just Netflix on deck tomorrow. How D.R. Horton will give us a pulse check on the economy. More Fast Money in two.

Welcome back to Fast Money. A couple of key earnings reports before the bell tomorrow could give us more clues about the direction of the economy. So let's start with D.R. Horton. Shares of the home builder down 16 percent this year as high mortgage rates keep pressure on the housing market. Of course, it's going to be spring selling season soon. So any commentary on that should be very interesting to him. Well, we got the NAHB survey this morning. The numbers weren't great. And really what we're seeing in terms of tariffs already is an impact on home prices. It's probably been

It's almost a 7% hit in terms of the average home price, which is somewhere over $10,000. Sentiment right now, both with rate uncertainty and obviously just the economy, I think it's going to be in the guide. It's not going to be in the numbers they tell you. And nothing's going to happen, notably, for this whole sector until mortgage rates come down. DHI actually builds spec homes. So when there's nothing on the market, they have an advantage. But when there are high rates and no one's buying, they have a disadvantage because they're outlaying too much money.

So I don't think anything significant is going to happen within this marketplace until mortgage rates come down. Maybe you go to a Home Depot or a Lowe's, but to ask for the home builders to really do the heavy lifting with mortgage rates where they're at is probably not going to happen. And they buy down mortgages, so the incentives could be high. American Express also out with results tomorrow, expected to give a read on the higher-end consumer spending power. The stock is down more than 20 percent from its all-time high made back.

In January, Guy, what are you thinking for this one? Yeah, valuation cushion, number one. I mean, it's not expensive at these levels. But you have concerns, I think, in terms of maybe delinquencies and, you know, on the rise clearly. And American Express does not win to that. You know, obviously they take credit risk. I don't think the credit picture is getting better anytime soon. So I'm hard-pressed to believe they're going to say something good enough to get the stock back on its horse. So given how high...

in the income structure that that customer is an American Express. Those Louis Vuitton numbers were just so bad. Now, I know some of it, a lot of it was China, but a lot wasn't. The U.S. wasn't great. That can't bode well.

for that consumer so you don't think there's a bending forward as we saw in the retail sales numbers a pull forward of spending in the first quarter no i don't for high end for the higher end consumer yeah they're not hoarding bags goods or belt bags certainly not hoarding spirits right for sure yeah all right up next final trades time for the final

the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Tim. AT&T is defensive here, but it's really time to talk about Liz Goldstein. I mean, who's next? I want to say hello to Liz Goldstein also. In addition, I've been swapping some interest rate risk for credit risk on the short side. So short, HYG. Outside of saying hello to Liz Goldstein. You've been doing all that. It's incredible. MP Materials, that's where I'm staying, but

Remember, scale, sell. It's been a winning position. Guy, are you going to say hi to Liz? Hello, Lizzie. In case you're wondering, it's Asa Lawson that sort of teed you up. Hope you're well. Thanks for watching. Definitely. GDX, Melissa Lee. I think it's in your heart. Thank you, Liz.

Thank you all for watching Fast Money.

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