Say you've always wanted to take a spontaneous trip to the Caribbean. Here's the thing. If you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can get out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard? To have some fun with our money. Like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one. So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 19 million customers today at Empower.com.

Not an Empower client, paid or sponsored.

Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money, and here's what's happening right now. Stocks staging a comeback after the president uses the F-word. Flexibility around tariffs and the losing streak goes out with it. The S&P and NASDAQ both breaking month-long losing runs. Calls for a new market.

Call it an energized trade. Oil is up as the U.S. lays out more sanctions on Iran. But why isn't there more of a war premium built in? Plus, Boeing's big win, Nike's big loss, and Elon Musk telling Tesla employees to hold on.

Hi, everybody. I'm Brian Sullivan in for Melissa tonight. Coming to you live, as always, from Studio B right here at the NASDAQ and on your desk on this Friday, Mr. Tim Seymour, Bono and Eisen, got Steve Grasso and Carter Worth joining us as well. Guys, welcome. Let's start with some signs.

that President Trump may be ready to deal around tariffs. He said today that there will be, quote, flexibility on tariffs. That's a pretty big comment. But Trump did stop short of making any firm exemptions ahead of the planned April 2nd starting date.

But that word, flexibility, that one word, helping your investments, stocks bouncing off their lows, and the three major indexes also higher on the week. So let us start the show by talking about what is driving stocks right now. That is largely tariffs. Megan Casella is at the White House with more on all the signals, some of them certainly mixed, coming from the president.

Brian, absolutely a little bit mixed here, but the president signaling some openness to negotiations with countries or with companies on those tariffs, especially when it comes to exemptions. Take a listen here to what the president said. There'll be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal so that if China is charging us 50 percent or 30 percent or 20 percent, and I don't mean China, I mean anybody, any country,

So the president was also asked whether he'd be willing to strike a deal with China. And he said he would be talking with Chinese President Xi Jinping, potentially leaving the door open there to some negotiations as well. And Brian, it's not the first time this week that we've seen the president at least implicitly

acknowledging some of the economic impact of these tariffs and of his policy plans. He posted on True Social after the Fed met on Wednesday, late Wednesday night, saying the Fed would be much better off cutting rates as tariffs were starting to transition or ease their way into the economy. And Brian, one last point on this. I was also talking

with a White House official earlier this week about the total value of goods that would be hit with tariffs on April 2nd. This official told me it could be in the trillions of dollars, multiple trillions worth of dollars of goods that could be hit with these tariffs. But the official also told me that nothing is final until that plan is ultimately released in the coming days. So for all that talk about the president and this administration not paying attention to the market impact or the economic impact of all of these plans, we are starting to see some movement here.

some reflection and some potential for things to remain in flux just 12 days out from that april 2nd deadline brian all right meg excel at the white house megan thank you very much let's trade this talk about it steve grasso how important are tariffs to these to these markets right now well that's what they've taken the lead from it used to be powell now it's tariffs and what well then it was nvidia so we've had we've had all these different things slides uh side slices of the economy but when you think about it

Didn't we have some flexibility? Hasn't he shown some flexibility, whether it's with Mexico, Canada, China? And that was the if in tariff. Does he put them on? Doesn't he put them on? I thought that was the flexibility that could have been the negotiating. And now we're on the next level of flexibility. But to everyone, whether it's a CEO who says that there's lack of clarity to run their company, when is it clear when you're a CEO?

Never. Right. The downturn. We have we have had the financial crisis. We've had the European crisis. We've had dozens of crises within the markets. But when you think about it, what they do know is their taxes aren't going up. What they do know is that their taxes are actually going down, probably corporate rates going 21 to 20. And if you if you manufacture, they're going to 15. But if you think about the tariffs, the average tariff.

nut that's being put on the average household is $1,200. If we, due to tariffs, we get an extension of the tax cuts, the average household gets $2,000, easy for me to say, in tailwinds. So I know you want to get it. Just let me wrap it up. So if you have headwinds and you have tailwinds that compensate, I think we got to say we're making this too complicated. Well, I

It sounds to me like you don't think that there's any more uncertainty in the eyes of CEOs. Is that what you're saying? No, I said there's always an uncertainty to being a CEO. There's never a certain time to be a CEO. Okay, so what do you think? But isn't the current environment more uncertain for CEOs than it was three months ago? Well, three months ago, you had EPA stringent regulations. You had regulations on banks.

your taxes potentially were going up so you have to pick your poison whether or not you wanted those headwinds or do you want these so we're in agreement there there always are going to be minefields. Well I mean I think about this week and I think about you know FedEx which is one of the most cyclical companies out there and always been a barometer of the economy and what we heard about yesterday is industrial uncertainty the industrial economy what we hear about company after company and we hear about CEOs lobbing the White House. Now this

This is not me making a call on whether tariffs are effective or not. We're talking about uncertainty. We're talking about what that ultimately means for companies and their willingness to spend. We know where consumer confidence is. But if the White House is willing to be more flexible, and if part of this to me is a broader message that everything we're saying is up for negotiation and that also we're looking to play, they're not going to admit this, but basically, yes, we're going to draw a hard line, but we can soften it. And that if the market

Markets are priced in the worst. You've got a Treasury secretary pointing out that the markets need basically a detox period. You've got an administration that basically, until the latter part of this week, was saying, deal with it. We're not that worried about the market. Just a little bit off topic, but I've got to give a shout out to my neighbor. My neighbor is Canadian. Here's why.

Is his name Astro? No, but there is no Canadian government right now. And I think this goes to the president. They're going to have an election on April 28th. Mark Carney's in, but he could be out if he loses the election. I don't think they will, but they could. And I bring this up, Manu, not because we're going to discuss Canadian politics, I hope, on the show, but if tariffs and sort of this language against Canada

for the most part, Canada, is what's driving stocks. How much of it, you wonder, could just be Trump knowing there's really nobody in Ottawa, the Canadian capital, to push back? And once there is, maybe this calms down, and thus the markets calm down. I see where you're going there. I'm going to use another F-bomb, fluidity. And I think the tariff process has been somewhat... What was the first F-bomb? Flexibility. Flexibility. Yeah.

Three strikes, you're out. So we're going to keep it at two. So I do think this process has been fluid. And I liken that to flexibility. I think flexibility comes across as a little bit less antagonizing. And to your point about Canada, I do think that the rhetoric has been received north of the border as being quite a bit antagonistic, essentially calling them the 51st Strait.

51st state. So I think a willingness to go back to the table and work through, to me, flexibility indicates that there's going to be a bilateral type of agreement versus a situation that's being dictated. And then we will unilaterally make a decision on whether or not we want to pull back, whether we want to scale from 25 to 50, et cetera, et cetera. So I,

I do want to make that slight distinction. But to Steve's point, I do think there has been uncertainty. I'm not sure using the term flexibility removes said uncertainty. Are you getting ready to cut me off? No, no, no. But I think that word did seem to change the markets. I don't know. Where I differ from Steve is that I do think that the tariff situation, unlike other uncertainty that you would face as a CEO,

is really drilling down to long-term capital decisions. And to FedEx's point, your input costs are going to affect not only your tomorrow or your next quarter, but also your three- and five-year spending plans. And I think that is a slight nuance that makes...

the flexibility or fluidity, this whole tariff situation a bit more daunting. I think that was a Queen Strike song, silent fluidity. Silent, silent lucidity. Carter, come in here because your job looking at the charts is to kind of strip out the words, strip out the emotion. The market obviously is not able to do that, but here's what's weird. The stocks that have been driving the gains and some of the losses are

The Nvidia is the world. The Amazon's the world. The Microsoft's the world. For the most part, maybe with the exception of Amazon's consumer business, I don't see any tariff impact on any of these names, but they're the ones that have been down four, five, six, seven weeks in a row. They're the ones driving the market, stripping out the emotion. What do you see in the charts?

Drawdowns, sell-offs, dips, declines, corrections, pullbacks, you choose the nomenclature, are normal if you're in a steep and uncorrected uptrend. And that is the general circumstance of the market before this past five, six, seven-week drawdown since February 19th. But I think the F word that really is applicable is flummoxed.

I think investors are bewildered. I think the White House perhaps is bewildered. Congress is bewildered. Allies are bewildered, perplexed. There's so many cross currents, both at the economic level. Is there a recession? Isn't there? Is the consumer OK? What about employment? Is this tariff thing going to get worse? Is it going to be flexible? The real word is flummoxed. Markets are flummoxed here. And I think participants as well.

Well, I mean, this is like the F is the word of the day. So, you know, I think, first of all, I'm embarrassed that we're 10 minutes into the show. We haven't welcomed Brian. So welcome to the show today. Which one's Brian? It's always on. It's Friday. It's fantastic to have you filling in on a Friday for me. Yeah.

Look, I think we get back to what the market has done and what the market exhibited, and really since Wednesday or Friday. And I think you started with this, Brian. What's more important here? Is it tariff policy or is it the Fed? And historically, it would have always been about the Fed. But I think now that we have the Fed out of the way, and if anything, I think we got a dovish pause. I mean, I think we got some easing by, you know, less tapering. And I think the dynamic here is the market is very unnerved by these dynamics. Look, quickly, before we move on, I want to ask.

I'll just be more direct. Steve Grasso, if the president tomorrow comes out and says, you know what? I thought about it. I got what I wanted with fentanyl, another one or whatever. No tariffs. Market rips. Rips. Because I think you're right. The lead in, I could have my own opinion on what it is. We even heard Jerome Powell say that it was transitory. So another F word, fleeting. So that could be, it could be a temporary, right? So if the market has decided that tariffs are an evil and if they are,

not put into place. I think reciprocal tariffs are different. Those can be palatable for everybody. But to your point, I think the market would rip higher. OK. And by the way, I do want to remind our audience that there are tariffs on right now. Trump put them on the first one. Biden kept them going. And increased them on China. And increased them on China for certain things, solar panels. So tariffs are not non-existent.

Also happening today, a nice bop for Boeing. The company winning an Air Force contract to build its next generation fighter jet that helped stock but hurt rival Lockheed Martin. Lockheed Martin fell 6%. So, Tim Seymour, don't look now, but old beaten up Boeing has had a little bit of a stealth moment.

Yeah, no, fabulous. And again, this is the B in band, my acronym. I think Boeing is a free cash flow story, really at its core if you're an investor and where the analyst community is watching. This has been a cash burn story. We don't need to get into the problems. And at times, we've never been willing to acknowledge the defense business.

But the reality is this is a company that not only today gives you some sense that possibly a $50 billion contract is powerful, and we understand there's pretty high margin in that contract, but also the dynamic around where they seem to be in favor of this administration. That counts for a lot these days. So Boeing isn't necessarily the name you're going out to buy on this news. I think Boeing's news flow had really more or less bottomed, and as we've started to see the 730 max, that's the dynamic that we really should be watching in terms of free cash flow.

Yeah, I tend to agree. It really has been a cash burn story, and that isn't going to be switched off overnight. I understand $20 billion and will likely be hundreds of billion dollars over several decades here. But, you know, when I look at

How low Boeing has been? I feel like that 140, mid-140s level when they offered the secondary has kind of been the floor. But we fell from this level before. And if we play this game, if I told you yesterday that they were going to win this contract, would you say the stock was going to be up just 5%? Or would you assume that it would have been up 10%, 15%?

That's a little rich because the fighter jets are not a huge part of Boeing's business. I want them to sell more 737s. But to Bonowin's point, it's a knee-jerk reaction. Given the sentiment of the stock, given the stock performance, given the cash burn issues, given the lack of CEO clarity for so long, if I had told you that they were going to win this contract, I would think this would have led to a massive sentiment reversal, and I don't think we've seen that in the stock. Could you imagine if Boeing screws up at all?

during this contract. Let's talk about it. What is the risk to both? We got a little pop to Bono and not a huge one, but I think what you're saying is any good news is very welcome right now.

Yeah, but I'm shocked that there isn't more follow-through on that good news. It's because of the negative headwinds. The negative headwinds. So it compensated. It's holding it back. And also, we thought Lockheed was going to get the contract originally. But to the original premise, if Boeing screws up or if they have some sort of inefficiencies, this could be a major headwind where a

good thing turns into a negative thing for Boeing because we know we have someone in the White House that's not going to be hesitant or coy about calling them out on any type of inefficiencies that they might want to. Carter, do we have a chart on B.A.?

Well, I mean, the temptation always when something is weak and in a downtrend to think, hey, this is the moment. It's cheap. Let me try to buy some and cross my fingers. It's really too early to qualify as a bearish to bullish reversal buy from my seat. So I would hold off. I'd rather pay higher. There you go.

Yeah, I was just going to say, I mean, look, Boeing's not cheap right here. And I hear you guys saying that this is actually, you know, the positive endorsement by the government is really a negative way to happen. I mean, think of all the companies that have, you know, government contracts over the last three months have meant a lot. I mean, think of Palantir. You tell me Palantir now is a target on their back because they've been getting government contracts? It's not about defense with Boeing. And it's really about their commercial line. Yeah.

Yeah, that's it. Want to sell more? 737. All right. Now, let's talk more about tariffs and how they could have a very real world impact. Joe LaVorna advised President Trump during the first administration. He is now chief economist at SMBC, NICO Securities America. Not advising officially, I don't think, the president this time, Joe, but certainly you've got the ear of the administration. Will tariffs, if we get them April 2nd, will they destroy the stock market?

No, they're not going to destroy the stock market. Why are we acting like they will? Well, because, I don't know, it's fear sells. Tariffs were in place in the first Trump administration. They had a very marginal impact in terms of actually didn't have any impact on inflation whatsoever. The Chinese bore most of the cost.

they may have worked and had a more important impact to have we not had the pandemic. This time around, tariffs will be used more aggressively. There'll certainly be some level of tariffs for revenues. Certainly they're used for a negotiation tool. But the other thing is they need, they're also as a carrot,

capital to come back to the US. And for investment and supply chains to decouple from China to other places so tariffs are a necessary and important tool Brian if you want to re industrialize the economy because in addition to the tariffs is a multi.

approach you're going to have low and- of cheap and abundant energy costs you have a corporate tax rate for producers from twenty one to fifteen percent. You have much more friendly business regulation so the tariff is all part of that reciprocal tariffs.

negotiating standpoint we'll see what happens on April second my best guess Joe LaVornia is going to say. There's still probably going to be some uncertainty but so what we've got tremendous uncertainty on taxes if you look at the uncertainty index. You're going to see the.

The uncertainty around taxes is incredibly high. It's one of the highest ratings ever. And that relates back to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Is it going to be passed? That, to me, is what's driving people. I think that was Steve Grass's point. But why doesn't the president then, and I know you can't speak for him, but just say what you said.

Say, we're going to put a little tariff on. We're hoping to bring jobs back. You're going to pay a tiny bit more, but you're going to make up that money in tax cuts and a higher income. Well, Secretary Besson has said it. President Trump has said it. By the way, President Trump...

Trump on the campaign trail consistently talked about tariffs. We're just surprised that he's actually implementing them. I say we, the collective narrative in the market. But the point is that you're not going to tell everybody everything you're going to do before you've done it. And the fact that investors are uncertain, well, can you imagine the people who we're negotiating with? Do you think they know what's happening? They're going to be off balance, and that's what you want. It's a negotiation.

and my guess is it'll be very effective when all is said and done but it's only eight weeks i mean come on i mean it's like everybody wants everything yesterday give it some time and joseph so it's time it has it's only been eight weeks uh...

Let's dive into the economy, the economy we have, not attaching this is so-and-so's economy because, frankly, this is everybody's economy at this point. We've had a number of numbers. We had regional manufacturing surveys this week that weren't great. We've had different dynamics with some lumpy, but also some, I would just say, some data series that are not necessarily telling you a whole lot in real terms. Where are we? Because there's...

we've suddenly gone all i hear about is a recession now uh... when in fact a month and a half ago no one was going near that well part of it is part of it is this atlanta fed served atlanta fed gdp now which uh... it's widely followed they've done some good forecast this one i think they're totally off on because if you look at job growth

growth you look at real income through January it's up almost 3% but the expenditure side of the data is softer. Some of the regional surveys you talked about a week but the national PMI the manufacturing. And services are pretty healthy they're well above 50. And this week at a huge gain in industrial production so to me the economy is healthy. I think

I don't want the Fed to start easing rates in the short term. I think a lot of this inflation we have is partly due to the Fed being too easy for too long. And certainly those cuts last year, the first one, I didn't mind. I advocated for that first cut because the data at the time looked very weak. But the Fed wound up going 100 basis points down. That was much too much. And the 10-year note went up 100 basis points. So the market clearly said that was a mistake. But the economy right now, to me, looks pretty good.

Yeah. And your Joe will let you go to your point. I tweeted it out today. We talked to a former Fed official last night. They left their foot in the gas, even as people cranked in 2021 in the economy, making more money in car sales and home sales. And they kept stimulating as if the entire economy was shut down. Huge policy mistake. Joe LaVorna, thank you very much. Brian, one last thing. Brian, one last thing. Tim Seymour, David Lee Roth is coming out of retirement.

Well, look, we're talking about one of the greatest front men in rock and roll history. And I have this debate with my wife all the time. It's not Sammy Hagar, honey. Sorry. I'll see you. I'll see you at the show, Joe, as I have in the past. Be opening by foreigner would fall into the D.F. word theme. But when I said very quickly, if the U.S. consumer does slow down a little more, do market multiples have to come down?

I would think so. I mean, we're talking about two thirds of 70 percent of the GDP is driven by consumption. So clearly, I mean, that's just too large of a factor to to sweep under the rug. We're still at what is it, 21 and a half times. I do think if you start to see earnings erosion, you start to see consumption dry up. You start to see CapEx pull back. It's only like it's only logical that I would expect multiples to start to come down. Have they come down enough already? I don't think so. OK.

On deck, it is all hands on deck, at least at Tesla. What Elon Musk just did and said to try to keep that stock on solid ground, plus just buy it. Why Nike crashed today, but if that means any real opportunity for you.

Feeling stressed? Let's talk about a simple yet powerful way to boost your mental health. Walking. April 2nd is National Walking Day, and it's the perfect time to start a new walking routine. The American Heart Association says even a brisk walk can reduce stress and improve your mood. So grab a friend, bring a pet, or even take a conference call on the go. Learn more and get heart-healthy tips and recipes straight to your inbox at heart.org slash movemore.

Mom, can you tell me a story? Sure. Uh, this is the story of Redfin. You mean Red Riding Hood? No, I mean Redfin. Once upon a time, there was born a real estate brokerage that was also a magical app. They called it Redfin.

Redfin is on a mission to get people the fairest deal of them all. Like in Snow White? Mm-hmm. With listing fees as low as 1%, Redfin agents charge half of what others often charge, so you have more money to put towards your dream home. And the Redfin app has a clever way of helping you find it. A trail of breadcrumbs? No. They update their listings every two minutes and give personalized recommendations so you see homes that are right for you. And then you live happily ever after? Yep. Time for bed.

Mom, I heard this word and I want to know what it means. Uh, okay. What is escrow? I'll ask our Redfin agent. I'm sure they'll know. Download the Redfin app to get started. Fee subject to terms and minimums. Equal housing opportunity. C-A-D-R-E number 01521930. Carl's Jr.'s new Snack Stash was made for munchie madness. A totally loaded mix and match any three sides deal. Just $4.99. Get onion rings, waffle fries, and jalapeno popper bites. Natural cut fries, fries.

Get any three sides in your snack stash. Just $4.99. Only at Carl's Jr. Munch responsibly. Available for a limited time at participating restaurants. Tax not included. Price may vary. Not valid with any other offer, discount, or combo.

All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Tesla had a recently rare up day today, but overall it's taken a pretty big hit since the record highs of December. Stocks down about 50% since those record highs. Still made you some money the last year or two, but well off the highs.

Elon Musk attempting to rally the troops at Tesla's headquarters last night, giving product updates and also urging employees to hang on to their stock. For more on sort of all of this, let's wrap it together, bring in Phil LeBeau on a Tesla. Maybe the company's not in disarray, but certainly the narrative around it, Phil, appears to be.

Yeah, and that's what they tried to change, Brian, last night. Look, this was a well-produced one-hour town hall. But let's be clear here. There was no new, new information in this. There was nothing that you woke up in the morning and you saw this and you said, oh, my goodness, I've got to go buy Tesla.

It was Elon Musk saying, if you believe in me, you believe in us. And these are some of the messages that he delivered to the employees. Basically, the future is bright at Tesla. Said it time and again, humanoid robots, he believes the first ones will be delivered to Tesla employees in the second half of next year. Autonomous technology is coming.

We're not going to go into all of his usual, here's what I expect in five years. He has said this time and again. And then there is his message with regards to those who believe that Tesla is a stock that is tanking. There are times when there are rocky moments, like things are like a little bit of stormy weather. But what I'm here to tell you is that the future is incredibly bright and exciting. So what I'm saying is hang on to your stock.

If you're hanging on to the stock, you got to go through this rough patch in terms of deliveries. This is what the company has delivered over the last 10 years. Last year, they were at basically 1.79 million vehicles delivered.

A couple of things to keep in mind here. Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, he has cut his delivery estimate down to 1.61. He was previously at 1.95 for 2025. Almost every analyst is bringing down their expectations for deliveries this year. We get the Q1 deliveries in less than two weeks, Brian, probably on April 2nd, April 1st, 2nd or 3rd. We will get those deliveries and then we'll have a better sense of just how rough the first quarter was.

We shall see if that pep talk of sorts really works on a stock that could use it. Phil LeBeau, great stuff all week as always. We'll see you later. Have a good weekend. Thank you very much. Carter Worth, what do the Tesla charts say?

chart we have one chart before we get to it I think it's important to say that obviously is the CEO you would want to try to say positive things but to his credit he in the past has also said he thinks the stock has been expensive and he has gone out and said that so here is saying quite the opposite that it's a time to buy but either way let's look at a chart and try to figure it out together.

So this is a fairly well-defined circumstance. We've come down to this trend line three times, hit it to the penny, and we stopped here this week and rallied a little bit. I have a red arrow there. I think you have a classic bull trap. We made a slight new high post-election, only to drop some 55% and go right down to trend. Now, the bull would argue that we're going to bounce.

Fair enough. That means you've got to put a green arrow in. Mine is red. I think we do break lower. I will point out, we put out a poll asking, which arrow are you, up or down from here? And institutional investors came back at 81% lower, retail 61% lower. So bias is lower, but at the institutional level, much less sanguine than at the retail level.

Yeah, Carter Worth on the charts there. I just how much of this, Steve, do you think is the political rumblings around Tesla versus just concerns about a consumer and a stock, a car stock that is effectively worth more than all the other car stocks in America?

Maybe this is, you know, we're sitting here arguing about Musk and Tesla. We're not arguing about Jensen, Wong and Nvidia. And the stocks are basically down the same in the last few weeks. Yeah, I think it's 80 percent political. I think if you have an opinion or you either you love them or you hate them.

And so I think that's the love them. And now they hate him. That's well, that that's what's really happened. But when you have to look at this as a as an equity, are you buying it as an EV company? Because then your choices are Rivian and Lucid. If you're buying it as a car company, then your choices are General Motors and Ford. So you have a bunch of different choices. To Carter's point, technically, I think it should bounce from here. But I do see how it could trade lower to 180 before it does bounce.

The company was on its knees before the politics. Let's not forget this. I mean, Tesla was $150 before the elections. So there's fundamental reasons around the company's core businesses and also the fact that investors have put too much stock in FSD. Are we talking about robots? Is that really a story for Tesla here? And he was campaigning. I want to let you finish, but he was campaigning, too. So I think that was him campaigning for Trump was probably poisoning a lot of people, you know, as well.

Politics can't get out of the way for Tesla. All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

We're back right after this.

It's game time. And if you've got a hunch about this NBA season, you could turn it into a big win on FanDuel. Because right now, new customers can bet $5 to get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Ooh, that guy's hotter than a microwave burrito. Now that's a red-hot hunch. 21-plus and present in Arizona. Must be first online real money wager. $5 deposit required. Bonus issued is non-adjournable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See full terms at FanDuel.com. Gathering problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342.

Uh-oh. The last cookie. You can get a new box of cookies in as fast as an hour with Walmart Express Delivery. Are you my guilty self-conscious? No, I'm the voice offering you promo code EXPRESS for free delivery on your first order. Hey! Who ate my cookies? You mean these cookies? Order now. Welcome to your Walmart. Promotion valid for first express delivery order. $50 minimum subject to availability. Restrictions apply.

All right, a big buzzkill on Nike today. Nike having its worst day in about six months today. The stock now at levels last seen five years ago. Nike down 5.5% today. It's down 17% since Elliot Hill took over as CEO in October with a, quote, win-now strategy.

It's not all his fault. Nike's down more than 60% since its 2021 record high. Today's move coming after Nike warned investors sales would fall by double digit, Steve, this quarter. It's like a Boeing. People just keep waiting for Nike to recover and

And it just keeps getting worse. I think they lack innovation. I've been clear on my views on this. I don't think Elliott even wanted the job, quite frankly. He didn't want to get pulled out of retirement. This is not something that he should be doing. And it's sort of a little bit pessimistic on my part when you look at that there's no other person who can do this job, no more innovation to this job. And I think you just...

There's a lot more than just the innovation story. There's the story of private companies that are taking share. Not a lot of people are still here. They have a great brand. Eventually, it will recover or someone will figure out what to do with it. I'm not sure this is the management team that is that. Yeah, I mean, they're going to have to come out and defend that brand equity, to your point, which means it's likely more marketing spin, right? And being that innovation has kind of been what's

what's lagged, it's likely more R&D spend as well. So that you see revenues decline, you see margins declining, and now all your cost inputs are kind of going up. I think that explains why the stock traded off to me, which wasn't really a terrible quarter. With that said, I think my comment was on the valuation, though. Does it, again, get so cheap that people are like, I've got to buy Nikon? Well, it's not cheap now. But, I mean, can I just point out that all that great competition that people say are eating their lunch with all the innovation,

Anand is down 30 percent in the last in the last 50 days. Decker's is down 50 percent. So if you can't tell me this isn't also both cyclical. This isn't consumption. This isn't these aren't trends within an industry that was so red hot that it was too hot. So, you know, to me, we didn't expect those numbers to be good. They were awful. We didn't expect next quarter to be good. They're probably not going to be good. So, you know, to me, I think the CEO is out there saying the right things. I mean, he's he's not only level setting in terms of experience.

expectations. Decker's, which makes Hoka, is the worst performing stock in the S&P 500. Yeah. So why aren't we talking about that? Are they broken? I just did. Is Anand broken? I just talked about it. Well, great minds. Fabulous. You know, we can say all the F words we can throw out there. But I mean, you know, I just...

Nike has been an easy dog to kick because it hasn't grown in a while. And let's be clear. Whether it's innovation or whether it's competitive threats, there's no question. Nike's not performing like it used to. Everybody knows that. But you can't tell me this is the time to go sell the stock. And, in fact, I think this was probably a washout. Maybe the problem is not Nike. It's FedEx.

Footwear. Coming up. Oh, my. Everything. Energy. A big decision from OPEC. New sanctions on Iran. And a move that could shake up markets. Salimah Kroff will join us with all that next.

All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Let's talk about oil. Let's talk about geopolitical risk. Oil posting its best week since January. Trump sort of saber-rattling more around Iran, but there doesn't appear to be a war premium built in. Let's bring in RBC Capital Markets Global Head of Commodity Strategy, Halima Croft, obviously also a contributor. Halima, thanks for joining us. Listen,

If I'm reading your notes right and if I'm listening to the president correctly, he's basically saying to Iran, do what we say or we're going to do something. That's a big something.

That's a big something. And what we're hearing is that President Trump has delivered a message to the Iranians essentially saying, like, look, you have a limited window to take our offer to restart nuclear talks and, like, come up with some type of settlement or we may pursue military action. At the same time, we've had U.S. strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, which President Trump really indicated was a warning to Iran. And then we have more sanctions. We had the sanctions this week.

targeting the independent Chinese refineries, the teapot refineries that take the bulk of Iranian crude. So we really look like we're ratcheting up to some type of endgame scenario when it comes to this whole relationship with Iran. I guess the question is, we're at 68. Some people might say, well, why is an oil higher with sort of what you just laid out? Or I guess, Salima,

Another way to look at it is there is plenty of oil in the world. The Saudis could put more on at any time, and maybe it's because of these things that we are at 68 and not 58.

Well, I think there's also the fact, Brian, that we are into a multi-year conflict in the Middle East and we have not had any physical disruption of oil. We've actually had the Israelis and the Iranians trade missile fire, and yet we've not had any action involving the Straits of Hormuz. So I think for a lot of oil market participants, they really want to see something that materially impacts oil.

oil supply before they start pricing us in. So do pay close attention to what we're seeing in terms of these new Iran sanctions. We had sanctions last week as well on Russia. Are we actually going to see real enforcement, though? Because I don't even think you needed the new sanctions to take, you know, potentially 750,000 a million barrels of Iranian oil off the market. It really comes down to what is the appetite to enforce those sanctions? Right.

Halima, is this a sign that the world thinks or the U.S. thinks that GDP is coming in? So we stated, as Brian said, a couple of reasons why oil should be higher. But if those things resolve...

Then oil should be back at 45 or 50. I know it sounds as if that is a world away from us right now. But is this some type of a bet based on a recession or GDP coming in?

I think part of the reason why oil has been struggling has been absolutely the concern about recession, about the impact of demand of tariffs. What is this going to mean to Chinese demand, the all-important center of demand? So I think you have these sort of push-pull in the oil market. You have sort of broader macro concerns.

Or at the same time, when the market starts to focus on potential supply risk, again, we talk about these sanctions. If President Trump were to enforce these sanctions on Iran, that could be a significant amount of Iranian oil off the market. And it becomes a real concern

question about what is the backfill? How quickly could U.S. production really ramp up? U.S. production ramps up at a certain price point. It doesn't ramp up at $50. Also, the issue about is Saudi Arabia looking to put more barrels on the market? They came out this week, OPEC+, announcing a plan to essentially have the big producers provide compensation. So essentially,

pull back some of their production. So it doesn't look like right now there's a lot of appetite from OPEC to jump in with more barrels. So we are watching this story very closely. It is. And Bizarre, we'll let you go, Halima. For all the Sturm und Drang out there, oil prices effectively at the same place they were like four years ago. It's been actually remarkably stable. Halima, thank you very much. Carter Worth, again, stripping it all out. What do the oil charts say?

Well, before we get to the charts, just what you said, remarkably stable. Here's stable. Adjusted for inflation. Oil in real terms is exactly where it was in 1985, 40 years ago. But Chevron's a favorite. First of four charts, you see it here. Year-to-date up about 13% versus the XLE up 7%, 8%.

We like it. Let's look at some Chevron charts on their own. The first you'll see here shows the COVID low. We were down at 50. We rallied to almost 180. Let's annotate that same chart and you'll see what is called a series of converging trend lines. And just today, this week, we started to move above that downtrend line in effect since the peak.

Final chart, relative performance. That's where alpha lies. And this chart depicts Chevron's very poor relative performance to the SPY, to the market. But what's happening of late? We're moving above. We're breaching to the upside that downtrend line. Chevron is a favorite here. We like it long. Wow. Chevron is a favorite. We love it. And going back, the 1985. Yeah.

The number one hit in 1985 this week. Do you know what it is? Give me the band. Oreo Speedwagon. Keep on loving you, babe. Can't fight this feeling. Oh, yeah. That's it. All right, coming up. I don't know Oreo, and I'm proud of that. There we go. And Foreigner was also red hot. Coming up, the names Bond, High Yield Bond, what the technicals are telling the chart master about the state of the corporate debt market.

All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Interest rates moving lower this week. Investors digesting the latest Fed decision, what it says about the state of the economy. The 10-year yield, now more than 50 basis points, or 1.5% to most of us, below its highs of last year. The question is, where do we go from here? Let us bring back in the chart master, Carter Wirth. Carter, where do borrowing costs go?

Yeah, well, let's go right to the charts. I remain in the lower yields camp. But the truth is that yields are just Goldilocks. They stay between three and a half and four. Brief trip up to five, never closed above five. And we're sitting here in the middle. You see how I've annotated, I think, lower, but we shall see. The high yield market is something to keep an eye on, of course. And I think we have a chart of the HYG. That's the iShares high yield bond ETF.

And the air I've drawn is sideways. This is what a pair of twos is. Is that poised to break out? It's not. It's well off its highs. Is it about to breach, break trend? It's not. This kind of sometimes, and this is the case, belongs where it is. Bottom line?

Yeah, I mean, if you look at high yield credit spreads, I mean, historically, we've ticked back up to about 317, I believe. But in the context of like the last 25 years, we're still at close to the low. So I'm with Carter in terms of I don't see like a large deterioration in terms of credit. But what I will say is that you want to start looking at the rate of change.

It's not as if you want to wait until things go from three and a half, three to three and a half to seven before you make a decision. It's like, are you starting to see that tick up and the rate of change start to accelerate? That's the thing that I think you start to keep an eye on. It's a president that wants lower rates, Steve. And Elon Musk was talking about it today, too. They want to drive...

interest rates down. I don't know if it'll work. Yeah, and it used to be Trump against Powell. If you notice that, they hate each other. That thing has left the barn. They're not talking about that. He's talking about the 10-year now and the Treasury Secretary Besson talking about the 10-year. So I haven't,

I don't think they've mitigated Powell out of the equation, but as LaVornia, as Joe LaVornia said, when he started cutting rates, we went from 360 to 493. We're back down to 424. I'm with Carter. I think you're going to see a three and a half. Three and a half? Yeah, I think you're going to see. On the 10-year? Yes, way sub four. That doesn't sound like good news to me. I know.

I mean, there's nothing good about a three and a half. I think he's talked down growth for that purpose. So I think you're going to see great rates coming in. There's a part of me that thinks that maybe they're jawboning the economy down to drive down borrowing costs. I don't know. Well, be careful what you wish for because, again, lower borrowing costs. I wish it was. No, but, you know, again, if you have no demand that pushes down yield, you've got a bigger problem.

I don't think, I think they want lower yields. I think the reality is that we've probably normalized to a place where yields are supposed to be. If you look at a 20-year chart in the 10-year, we're kind of where we should be. And if you think about the efficiencies that have come from technology and all those other things, I mean, yields should be slightly lower, but they don't have to be a lot higher than here. We'll see what happens. All right, coming up, a big week for the consumer, a lot of earnings coming out. Mike Cohen with the Options Market is saying.

All right, welcome back to Fast Money. It is a consumer abundanza next week with a number of big-name retailers reporting their results. You got KB Home, Chewy, Dollar Tree, Lululemon. So basically you got dogs, houses, and stretchy pants. For an early read on how options traders are setting up for these moves,

Let us bring in the king of stretchy pants himself. That is Mike Coe. That's not right. I'm just trying to give him a smile. Mike Coe, what do you see in the options market? Yeah, sometimes I wear stretchy pants for fun. So, look, I'm worried...

A worried consumer has got the options markets a little bit concerned as well. Right now, Dollar Tree implying a move of about 11.5%, and Lulu slightly smaller but still large at about 9%. So some big moves implied there. I am actually inclined to play Lulu from the long side on valuation here. I was looking

at a calendar call spread risk reversal, selling the May 2nd 285/380 strangle, and then buying the longer dated July 330 calls as a way to make a bullish bet and playing for the vol crush that will inevitably follow the earnings. - There we go. And now we know what you do for fun. - Vol crush. I mean, that sounds scary. I mean, you know. - It is. We're looking at a chart, Mike, with some red and green.

Bonwin, what do you think of that setup? I'm trying to understand it, to be perfectly honest. So we were talking about vol crush, and I have a crush on vol crushes. So essentially what Mike is doing is selling the shorter portion of this. You'll see vol spike into earnings, and that's going to come down. And now he's given himself optionality by going out the additional month, which while his upside is capped on the short term, he's essentially longing that call over a longer duration period of time, which...

the direction can take you and you'll make money from selling that short term vol collapse. I just want to make sure we're saying vol. Because, I mean, when I hear the term vol crush, it sounds... Vol. Vol. With a V. Volatility. We've been doing it with a vol. Yeah, not fall. We've been talking about F words today, not fall. Oh, not fall. Not fall. And a big, by the way, I've got to do it, a big shout out to all my friends.

In Blacksburg, Virginia, it's Sharkey's. Yeah. Up next. Sharkey's is a great spot. You know it. Up next for Final Trades.

Brian, great to have you. You're invited to any event at Sharky's or here on the desk. That's right. XLE, I think this chart, if you look at it over the last three years, you can say it's done nothing since that peak into 22. I think it's been inching higher. Energy costs, as we said, this is a good place to be investing in energy. Great divs. Double energy. Counter-cyclical. Go for it. Final one. Another F. This has been incredibly fun. Thanks so much. Listen, I'm taking a look at Capital One Financial. I think this one tests 165.

Capital One Financials, Steve Grassler. Does anyone know you have an excellent voice? Is this a secret you've been keeping? Does anyone at Sharky's know it? Unloud. This is un... No, he's got a great... This guy's got a great voice. My final trade, N. Liven Therapeutics. I think it's washed out. Love it. Guys, thank you all for making it easy on me. Everybody, thank you for watching...

Fast Money.

You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money Disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Fast Money Disclaimer.

The last thing you want to hear when you need your auto insurance most is a robot with countless irrelevant menu options, which is why with USAA auto insurance, you'll get great service that is easy and reliable all at the touch of a button. Get a quote today. Restrictions apply. USAA.