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cover of episode Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 12/16/24

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 12/16/24

2024/12/17
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Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

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Jim Cramer
通过结合基础分析、技术分析和风险管理,帮助投资者在华尔街投资并避免陷阱的知名投资专家和电视主持人。
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Jim Cramer: 股市中存在一些事后看来显而易见的机会,但当时却容易被忽视。投资者往往过于依赖基本面分析,而忽略了市场情绪和非理性因素的影响。例如,一些“cult stocks”的股价可以独立于公司基本面运行多年,特斯拉就是一个典型的例子。特斯拉股价自大选以来的上涨是历史性的,这与马斯克对特朗普的支持以及电动汽车行业的整体发展趋势有关。然而,电动汽车销量下滑、中国市场竞争激烈以及马斯克的奖金诉讼等因素,也可能导致投资者对特斯拉持谨慎态度。公众对特斯拉的支持超出了华尔街分析师的预期,马斯克与特朗普的关系是特斯拉股价上涨的关键因素。特斯拉拥有比Waymo更多的自动驾驶数据,这可能使其在自动驾驶领域占据优势。CEO的政治影响力可以使投资者对公司未来发展充满无限想象,从而不受市盈率的限制。 Netflix的成功在于其独特的节目内容,而传统电视网络则坚持陈旧的模式。Netflix制作了诸如Jake Paul对阵Mike Tyson等吸引大量观众的节目,并成功地引导美国观众接受字幕。华尔街对Netflix新的广告支持订阅模式持怀疑态度,但事实证明这种模式非常成功。华尔街分析师关注估值,而普通投资者则关注Netflix的内容和用户体验。 Palantir是一家真正的公司,拥有良好的商业模式,但其行事风格独特,不遵循华尔街的规则。对于企业软件公司,应使用“40法则”而非市盈率来评估其价值。Palantir满足“40法则”,并且与特朗普关系密切,但由于其CEO的强势和业务的不透明性,投资者对其关注较少。一些独立交易员和投资者看到了Palantir的价值,而华尔街分析师则没有。传统的估值方法有时是无效的,投资者需要关注“cult stocks”的动态。投资者应该寻找那些挑战传统观念的股票,即使其中一些可能会失败。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Tesla's stock rally significantly after the election?

Tesla's stock rallied because Elon Musk was closely aligned with President-elect Trump, who supported electric vehicles and self-driving technology. This political influence, combined with Tesla's advancements in electric cars and self-driving data, made it a clear winner in the market.

What factors contributed to Netflix's stock performance in 2024?

Netflix's stock surged due to its innovative content, including global hits like 'Squid Game 2' and unique programming like Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson. Wall Street underestimated the success of its ad-supported subscription tier, which grew despite initial skepticism. The public's enthusiasm for Netflix's content outweighed traditional valuation metrics.

How did Palantir's unique business model impact its stock performance?

Palantir's stock soared because it passed the 'rule of 40,' which combines revenue growth and EBITDA margin. Despite being a high-growth, loss-making company, its rapid revenue acceleration and alignment with the Trump administration made it attractive to retail investors and institutions alike.

Why did the homebuilders sector face challenges in 2024?

The homebuilders sector struggled due to rising long-term interest rates, which were not aligned with the Fed's rate cuts. Additionally, concerns about inflation and potential immigration restrictions under the Trump administration added pressure. Toll Brothers' disappointing guidance further fueled investor skepticism.

What opportunities does Jim Cramer see in the healthcare sector for 2025?

Cramer sees opportunities in healthcare, particularly in biotech and pharma, as these sectors have underperformed significantly. Stocks like Eli Lilly, Vertex Pharma, and Bristol-Myers are trading at discounts despite strong growth prospects, making them attractive for investors.

How has Marvell Technology's focus on AI-related businesses impacted its stock?

Marvell Technology's stock has surged due to its strategic focus on custom AI silicon for data centers and cloud computing. The company's partnerships with hyperscalers like AWS and its strong financial performance in AI-related businesses have driven significant growth, with the stock up over 100% year-to-date.

Why does Jim Cramer believe individual stock picking is still relevant?

Cramer argues that individual stock picking can yield significant returns, as evidenced by success stories like NVIDIA. He believes that index funds should complement, not replace, individual stock portfolios, providing a balance that allows investors to take calculated risks while maintaining a safety net.

Shownotes Transcript

Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money.

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