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cover of episode AI Spend To Kingdon (Capital) Come with Parshv Shah

AI Spend To Kingdon (Capital) Come with Parshv Shah

2025/3/27
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On The Tape

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员,常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
P
Parsh Shah
Topics
Parsh Shah: 生成式AI投资领域出现了一场重大辩论,围绕着构建更有效模型所需资金规模展开。DeepSeek的出现引发了关于AI模型构建所需资金规模的讨论,挑战了此前“资金密集型越好”的假设。最初我并不认为DeepSeek对英伟达是利好消息,因为市场叙事开始转变,但现在我的看法有所改变。尽管对AI模型构建资金密集度的讨论仍在进行,但英伟达的推理和高级推理需求却增长了100倍,这表明计算需求的增加。关于AI投资的讨论将会持续一段时间,因为各个国家都在努力发展自己的AI技术。阿里巴巴虽然也在加大AI投资,但其规模远小于美国的超大型科技公司,因为它们面向的市场不同。超大型科技公司对AI的巨额投资存在供过于求的风险,但AI的潜力巨大,目前我们仍在探索其应用价值。英伟达正在努力提高GPU的能源效率,以应对能源供应的限制。英伟达快速的产品更新换代可能导致芯片供过于求,并对超大型科技公司的财务状况造成影响。 Dan Nathan: AI计算需求的巨大增长可能会导致能源供应不足,成为制约AI发展的重要因素。除了英伟达和超大型科技公司之外,其他服务器和组件厂商的股票表现不佳。大型科技公司股价下跌的部分原因是其云业务增长放缓以及资本支出增加。大型科技公司可能会减少资本支出,因为收入增长放缓。微软的下一财年资本支出计划值得关注,因为它可能反映出公司对AI投资策略的调整。如果大型科技公司的盈利能力下降,那么其股票集中度将成为一个更大的风险。对定制芯片的需求增加导致博通等公司股价上涨,但其未来前景仍存在不确定性。除了英伟达和超大型科技公司以外,存储和内存厂商的股票表现也同样不佳,这表明市场热情已经消退。生成式AI的兴起扩大了网络攻击面,这将推动网络安全行业的增长。AI代理技术可能成为未来SaaS公司增长的重要引擎,但目前其对公司收入的贡献有限。Adobe等公司面临着生成式AI带来的挑战,其股价表现不佳。生成式AI对消费者互联网公司既是机遇也是挑战,其影响取决于具体公司及其商业模式。OpenAI的Operator等AI代理工具可能会对Instacart等公司构成挑战,但也可能提高其效率。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter explores the shift in market sentiment regarding AI investments, particularly in light of the DeepSeek development in January 2024. The discussion centers on the debate surrounding capital intensity in AI model development and its implications for companies like Nvidia.
  • Market sentiment towards AI investments shifted significantly after the release of DeepSeek in January 2024.
  • The debate arose around the capital intensity needed for efficient AI model building.
  • The impact on Nvidia's revenue growth is a major concern.

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan is joined by Parshv Shah, Portfolio Manager at Kingdon Capital Management, on the RiskReversal podcast. They discuss the impact of generative AI on the stock market, particularly focusing on tech stocks and hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. The conversation covers the shifts in market sentiment, the performance and future outlook for companies like Nvidia, Dell, and Adobe, and the role of AI in cybersecurity. They also explore the implications of custom silicon and agent technology on consumer internet companies, featuring insights into the challenges and opportunities these innovations present for various tech sectors.

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