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cover of episode Cash Is King: Dan Niles’ 2025 Investing Playbook

Cash Is King: Dan Niles’ 2025 Investing Playbook

2025/1/15
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On The Tape

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Dan Niles: 我对2025年的市场持谨慎乐观态度。2024年,我的预测是基于美联储成功实现软着陆,而标普500指数最终上涨了23%,这与我的预测相符。然而,自去年年中以来通货膨胀一直在上升,这让我对2025年更加谨慎。我认为现金是今年的首选投资,因为通货膨胀可能继续上升,美联储可能不会降息或加息。此外,我认为会出现一个AI消化阶段,大型科技公司将放缓资本支出,因为他们没有看到相应的回报。 微软是人工智能基础设施支出最大的公司之一,但其资本支出增速将在2025年上半年下降。这将对科技股产生负面影响。 当前的市盈率为25倍,远高于1995年最后一次美联储成功实现软着陆时的17倍,这缺乏估值支撑。市场需要在保持当前市盈率和盈利增长10%之间取得平衡,但我并不担心经济问题。GDP增长率为3%,失业率为4%,美联储自9月份以来已经进行了100个基点的降息,这些降息将在今年开始显现,并且新政府的政策也具有通货膨胀性。 如果美联储暂停加息或加息,加上人工智能资本支出问题,今年市场将非常动荡。 除了现金,我的前五大投资选择包括光纤到户、思科、银行股票和中盘价值指数。中盘价值指数在过去五年中表现落后于标普500指数,但我认为今年它将迎头赶上。 Meta在2024年表现出色,但其估值相对于其增长而言仍然较高。如果Meta产品的采用率下降,并且其投资回报率下降,那么该公司的股票可能会面临风险。Meta的股票表现取决于TikTok是否会被禁。Meta利用人工智能技术有效地推动了其业务增长,而其他公司则没有看到类似的回报。Meta不是我今年的前五大投资选择之一,因为该公司在2022年股价暴跌后,其估值仍然偏高。 苹果公司没有在生成式人工智能基础设施上投入巨资,其人工智能战略存在问题,并且没有出现升级超级周期。苹果公司股价上涨主要是因为估值扩张,而不是基本面改善。如果苹果公司业绩再次下滑,投资者可能会开始关注其估值问题。 亚马逊的广告业务是其股价上涨的主要驱动力之一。亚马逊去年的股价上涨主要是因为其零售业务的利润率提高,而不是AWS。亚马逊的“库珀计划”项目将对其利润率构成影响。 美元升值将对所有大型科技公司的国际收入造成负面影响。 我的首选投资是现金,但我将在第一季度根据通货膨胀和人工智能资本支出等因素来调整我的投资策略。这是一个“达尔文市场”,最能适应变化的公司才能生存。 英伟达的股价可能面临风险,因为其收入增长可能放缓。我相信英伟达的收入将继续增长,但短期内也可能出现大幅下滑。英伟达的首席执行官詹森黄的乐观言论可能会导致投资者对该公司的预期过高。英伟达的首席执行官詹森黄专注于长远发展,投资者应该理解这一点。 Dan Nathan: (对Dan Niles观点的回应和补充,以及对市场走势的分析和预测,需根据访谈内容补充)

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Dan Nathan and Dan Niles), founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management), engage in an in-depth discussion about the current state of the tech market, broader economic trends and his top picks for 2025). The conversation touches on the volatility in tech stocks, the implications of inflation, and the Fed's influence on market conditions. Dan Niles shares insights on his cautious outlook for 2025, citing inflation worries and potential AI digestion phases. They also discuss the performances and forecasts of major tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, and examine how macroeconomic factors like the U.S. dollar and interest rates are affecting these giants. Niles emphasizes the importance of being adaptable in this uncertain market landscape, with a focus on cash and well-rounded stock picks

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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