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Clear Eyes, Fully Vested, Can't Lose?

2025/1/22
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On The Tape
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D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员，常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
G
Guy Adami
经验丰富的华尔街交易员和金融分析师，知名媒体人物。
Topics
Dan Nathan: 我认为特朗普的AI倡议'星门计划'虽然市场反应积极，但大部分内容早已为人所知，市场可能无法持续对相同消息兴奋。软银、甲骨文和OpenAI此前已宣布在AI基础设施方面的大规模投资计划，特朗普的倡议并未带来太多额外利好。如果AI基础设施建设过度，一些公司可能不得不将目光转向美国以外的市场。美国电网在短期内可能无法支持当前的AI基础设施建设规划。大型投资计划的宣布往往伴随着最初的兴奋，但随后会逐渐淡出人们的视野。市场对大型投资计划的兴奋感可能会随着时间的推移而消退。马斯克对特朗普的AI倡议的看法可能会影响其发展，因为马斯克与特朗普和Altman的关系复杂。 特朗普希望TikTok被出售给美国公司，但这一目标的实现并非易事。特朗普对TikTok估值的夸大可能会阻碍交易达成。达成TikTok交易需要多方参与和协商，并非易事。大型科技公司都在争取特朗普的青睐，这将导致在TikTok、AI政策等问题上出现赢家和输家。对TikTok的禁令部分原因是其对美国民众的负面影响。TikTok对美国民众的负面影响是其被禁令的原因之一。TikTok是否对美国民众产生负面影响与其所有者无关。TikTok可能存在成瘾性，对用户造成负面影响。 特朗普政府的行政命令可能对美国经济产生影响，特别是关于关税和利率的政策。市场对关税的担忧有所缓解，导致美元走弱，十年期国债收益率下降。对关税的担忧可能会再次加剧，导致利率上升和美元走强。市场对利率的预期发生了变化，导致债券收益率下降。如果通货膨胀上升，美联储可能不会降息，甚至可能继续加息，这将影响股市估值。债券收益率上升导致股市出现回调。特朗普政府可能关注股市和利率。降低利率可能会加剧现有经济问题。特朗普政府的行政命令可能对能源市场产生影响，特别是关于石油价格和战略石油储备的政策。 大型能源公司运营效率高，资产负债表良好，估值合理，未来可能会有良好的表现。能源板块在2025年可能会有良好的表现。中国经济增长对能源需求的影响。特朗普政府对中国的关税政策可能对全球经济产生影响。 Guy Adami: 我认为特朗普的AI倡议大部分内容早已为人所知，只是包装方式让人感觉新奇，市场对相同消息的兴奋度有限。对AI相关股票的积极价格走势，很大程度上是基于已知信息，市场兴奋度有限。部分科技股上涨是资金流入的结果，寻找卖出价位。对特朗普AI倡议的兴奋度最终会消退。部分股票价格上涨是由于其股价已处于较低水平，任何利好消息都会导致其上涨。对特朗普AI倡议的长期影响持怀疑态度。目前市场对特朗普AI倡议感到兴奋。需要关注哪些股票在该消息公布后没有上涨。 特朗普关于TikTok交易的言论具有戏剧性，但交易的达成并非易事。TikTok的算法是其价值的关键，但其是否会包含在与美国公司的交易中尚不明确。达成TikTok交易需要多方参与和协商，并非易事。 市场对关税的担忧有所缓解，导致美元走弱，十年期国债收益率下降。对关税的担忧可能会再次加剧，导致利率上升和美元走强。特朗普政府补充战略石油储备的举动可能会支撑油价。全球经济状况才是影响油价的关键因素。 大型能源公司运营效率高，资产负债表良好，估值合理，未来可能会有良好的表现。资产价格无论如何衡量都处于高估状态。这些指标并非时机指标，但意味着市场容错空间越来越小。降低利率可能会加剧现有经济问题。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The hosts discuss Donald Trump's new AI initiative, 'Stargate,' and its market reaction. They analyze the involvement of key players like Larry Ellison, Masayoshi Son, and Sam Altman, questioning whether the announcement represents genuinely new developments or repackaged existing plans. The discussion also touches on the subsequent price action in related tech stocks.
  • Announcement of Trump's 500 billion AI infrastructure initiative, 'Stargate'
  • Involvement of Larry Ellison, Masayoshi Son, and Sam Altman
  • Skepticism towards the announcement's novelty
  • Positive market reaction in adjacent tech stocks like Nvidia, Dell, Oracle, Seagate, Western Digital, and Arm Holdings

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami kick off this episode of the 'On The Tape' podcast with a discussion on the frosty New York weather before diving into key financial events. They cover Donald Trump’s AI initiative with Larry Ellison, Masa Son, and Sam Altman, dubbed 'Stargate,' pledging $500 billion toward AI infrastructure in the U.S. They discuss the market's reaction, exploring adjacent tech stocks and the seemingly overhyped announcement. The duo also reviews notable earnings from Netflix and the implications of its all-time high stock performance, followed by conversations on new executive orders, Trump's stance on TikTok, and pending tariffs. They emphasize Jamie Dimon’s views on inflated asset prices and give advice to listeners on handling market uncertainty, drawing on historical and contemporary contexts.

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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