We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Elections & Earnings: How Will Markets React?

Elections & Earnings: How Will Markets React?

2024/11/4
logo of podcast On The Tape

On The Tape

AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员,常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
D
Danny Moses
L
Liz Young Thomas
Topics
Dan Nathan: 十月份的就业报告数据低于预期,但考虑到飓风和罢工的影响,并不足以改变对美国经济的整体看法。市场对美联储将在本周会议后降息的预期很高,这支持了美联储继续降息的论点,也支持了认为经济正在走弱的观点。多个因素可能导致通货膨胀上升,包括降息周期、中国刺激经济、OPEC减产以及美国大选后的财政政策。当前市场环境与以往不同,全球央行的行为对市场的影响越来越大,这给预测带来了挑战。预测市场反映了风险偏好,但其影响力有限,不应被视为市场走势的可靠指标。 Danny Moses: 尽管宏观经济数据存在不确定性,但消费者支出依然强劲,企业也在寻找方法应对各种问题,因此对经济的整体看法没有改变。在当前市场环境下,公司需要大幅超出预期才能获得股价回报,未来公司对未来的预期可能比实际盈利更重要。信用市场的功能性是判断经济健康状况的关键指标,如果信用利差扩大,则可能预示着市场风险。无论哪个政党获胜,财政问题都将持续存在,投资者应关注不受此影响的公司。 Liz Young Thomas: 十月份的就业报告数据虽然低于预期,但考虑到飓风和罢工的影响,并不足以改变对美国经济的整体看法。消费者持续消费,出乎意料地对公司业绩构成积极影响;同时,由于宏观经济数据的不确定性,CEO和CFO保持谨慎,导致预期较低,更容易超出预期。美联储9月份的加息幅度过大,未来应采取更谨慎的加息策略,避免通货膨胀加剧。如果十年期国债收益率上升到4.5%甚至5%,股市可能会受到影响。市场高度集中,少数几家公司对整体估值影响巨大,即使估值较高,也可能持续较长时间。选举结果存在不确定性,不应依赖民调结果来调整投资组合。无论谁当选,赤字问题都无法解决,关键在于如何应对。如果多个公司业绩不佳,则可能表明存在行业性问题,需要关注。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion focuses on the October job report, its implications for the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts.
  • October job report showed a significant miss in expectations.
  • The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.
  • The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan, Danny Moses, and Liz Young Thomas cover October's job report, the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, single stock earnings, and the election. The team delves into the market's reaction to a weaker job report and the implications for upcoming Fed rate cuts. They analyze company earnings performance and consumer spending trends amidst macroeconomic uncertainty. Key earnings from Amazon, Microsoft, and Palantir are highlighted. The potential impacts of the upcoming election are discussed along with the market reaction to polling and prediction markets. Lastly, they touch on recent regulatory developments affecting energy companies and their deals with big tech for running data centers.

Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe)

About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

Check out our show notes here)

See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape).

Shoot us an email at [email protected]) with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod) on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia) on Threads

We’re on social:

Follow @GuyAdami) on Twitter

Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34) on Twitter

Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat) on Twitter

Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia)

Subscribe to our YouTube) page

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.