Shownotes Transcript
On the Tape.
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Holy shit, that's some badass music right there, man. Is that new? We're coming in hot on a Monday. This is a very special Risk Reversal podcast. We're doing it live, Guy. We're doing it live. That's Guy. Well, we always do it live. You know, we're machines. Live to tape, as they say. Well, it's just live. All right, so we got a Monday morning here. We got a lot to talk about, Guy. Usually we do like a bit of everything.
a look ahead for the week. I think we have to do a quick look back on Friday and then we're just going to get to today's price action. I think you have a lot of thoughts how we might stem this tide of selling. So we're going to hit all that. Let's quickly, Jacob has a screen. This is my main page.
page. This is from Friday. This is stocks that are kind of put together by sector guys, subsector in the light. And just to remember that we closed down 6% in the S&P 500. NASDAQ closed down nearly 6.5% on Friday. We had yields in the 10-year below 4% for a bit.
That was a bit of a crescendo of a low here. So thoughts, because the S&P futures are down about 3% as we speak. They were down maybe 5% overnight. Yeah. And the chaos over the weekend and the amount of just people being hyperbolic and stuff. What we always try to say is, and I think to a certain extent, we may disagree with this, but this is a business where you got to try to take the emotion, excuse me, out of the equation. And one thing I'll say is,
Granted, for the last couple of years, I can only speak for myself, but obviously have been extraordinarily cautious for a myriad of different reasons. And outside of a couple of different days or a few days, the market didn't really manifest or seemingly work was concerned about the concerns that I had. And things happen pretty quickly in the market. And one thing we've been saying since
last summer. And one thing that Benny Daniel and Porter Collins and Danny Moses have also said since last summer is volatility has become a story. And we saw that in August of last year, and obviously we're seeing it again now. So I guess the reality of the situation is, I think I can speak for you as well in this, we, in our cautiousness,
you know, we've really been trying to help people and sort of steer people to some of the things that we're seeing. And then I want to be crystal clear. I didn't think you would see the types of moves that we saw last week, but the levels that we're seeing now actually makes some sense to me, but things happen a lot faster. And, you know, for those of you that said you're out of your mind, when we thought Apple could revisit the levels we took out from, you know, took off from last June on that Apple, whatever day that June 10th, you see, well,
Well, here we are. For those that didn't think that NVIDIA was going back to 90 or so, you know, here we are. I mean, we could list, there's a cavalcade of names, but, you know, all in all and along the way, we've really just been trying to guide people. And listen, I get people don't want to hear bad news when things are going great.
and they only want to hear it in retrospect. But here we are today, having seen a market considerably lower over the last week, week and a half. Well, I mean, let's call it what it is. It's a crash. I mean, if you look from February 19th to where we are today on the opening, we're down 20%. And that's happened in very short order where we've had that drop from 5,800. This is just
a week and a half ago, guys, down to 4,900. And I think what's important, and we were talking about this for the last couple of weeks, this 4,900 level was important in the S&P 500 because it was a huge breakout level, right? So we left 4,900, 4,800 or something like that. That was the high in 2021. We saw the S&P 500 drop basically 27% at its lows in 2022, right from those highs in 21. And then it took us obviously a year, year and a half or so to get back
above that after the lows here. So psychologically, I think the down 20% is kind of important from the highs. That means the S&P is down about 17% on the year right now. And I look around and I see very few stocks that are up on the year out of my main page or so.
And Carter's been talking about this. The Russell 3000, this is basically, I think he says 90% of the investable equities in the U.S. And he was talking about the median stock in the Russell 3000 was
was down 35%. Just think about that, right? And it also goes back to that concentration that we've been talking about in the top names. And I just want to make one point here, okay? So let's talk about the tariffs, but first things first, let's talk about the folks that lined up behind Trump and his policy for the reasons of tax cuts, deregulation, right? And then probably more sensible trade policies
policy that would lead to, right, a better economy for the U.S. If you're focused on free trade and the like, and you're one of those folks that think, okay, that it's been bad for manufacturing in the U.S., it's been bad for jobs over the last 40 years or so, there was
probably a way, first things first, to reorient this with China. We've talked about them being added to the WTO 40 years ago. There's lots of people who thought that was ground zero, right, for a lot of these problems that we have in manufacturing and the like here. But to go about
trade the way that they have done here without the benefit of the tax cuts first. And I'm not saying that you have to support the tax policy of this administration, because to me, it was going to four and a half trillion dollars in cuts over the next 10 years. It seems crazy if you're most focused on the deficits that we have and the debt that has been piling up. But now all of a sudden,
You have basically this own goal, which brings me back to the business leaders of this country. When you think about all of those tech CEOs that lined up behind Trump because of deregulation, then you think of all the bank CEOs. And I'm speaking to you, Jamie Dimon and Moynihan and all these other guys who lined up
because they want to deregulation, right? And think about these stocks right now. I am looking at the open today. Apple's down 6%. Nvidia's down 6%. Microsoft's down 3%. Amazon's down 4%. Google's down two and a half percent. Meta is down three and a half percent. There you go, Zuck. And then Tesla, the hardest hit out of this fateful eight, down nearly 8% guy. Now,
All these guys lined up behind. How do they feel right now? And I know I'm a little bit fired up because I think if these folks probably had the right sort of approach towards this administration about a whole host of other things, non-economic, they'd have a lot more credibility. Right now, they have no credibility in my opinion, Guy. No, listen, all fair points. And I'm sure some of them are questioning some of the decisions they made without question. I mean, obviously...
in terms of just the lens of their respective companies and the stock performance, forget about the last couple of weeks. I mean, since the election, obviously things haven't worked out that way, but you know, the tariffs,
Tariffs are an interesting thing. And, you know, again, I think this is an administration, specifically this as a president, that looks through things, looks through the lens of wins and losses. And everything's either a win or a loss. It's that binary. So this is just my belief. I think when he hears trade deficit and the word deficit suggests a loss,
And we have trade deficits with most of our trading partners. He views that we're losing, we're getting ripped off. And what I've said and what I will continue to say, and by the way, Larry Summers has just been saying it, I think over the last 24 hours, the trade deficit by definition is not a bad thing. It could be a bad thing. It could mean we're getting ripped off, but by definition, it does not necessarily mean we're getting ripped off. But when you look at it through the lens of wins or losses, everything is either...
a W or an L. And I think that's what we're dealing with right now. And I think the market is sort of doing the pushback without question in terms of those CEOs that you mentioned, you know, outside of Jamie diamond, you know, they're not a lot of people. Listen, I respect the, the, the, the basically the greatness they've achieved and what they have done, but,
For some of those people, you know, it's very hard for me to sort of feel warm and fuzzy about a Mark Zuckerberg or Jeff Bezos or any of these people, quite frankly. So you get what's coming to it. You get what's coming to you in the end. But Guy, this is two and a half months into this presidency. And, you know, you and I have been saying this, or at least I can speak for myself, how feckless these people are. When you think about the platforms in which they control, the attention
attention from the U.S. citizens, you know what I mean, from citizens around the world that they command. And this is what they lined up for. And I just want to make another point here.
I don't know if you saw Peter Navarro. He was just on Squawk Box, okay, on CNBC. This guy is a fucking moron. And let me just tell you this. Pull up this Axios calculation. I know it's been all over the place. This is how they calculated these tariffs here. When you have people like my brother who lives in Boulder, Colorado, who runs a small business, okay, it's an advertising business. This is predicated on businesses here in America.
This is how he makes money. He's probably got 20 employees, right? Who actually spend on advertising and advisory on brand. When they're sending me this crap,
you know that it's not done because now retail is just waking up to the, how many people did you have ask you over the weekend who don't stare at fact set machines all day long? They don't look at their investments every day who don't, you know, all that sort of stuff, talking about this, asking you about this sort of stuff. And Peter Navarro is somebody who's been widely discredited for decades about his view about economic policy. He's also somebody last year that spent four months in jail,
Four months in jail for contempt of court related to January 6th because he's never admitted to the election in 2020 being lost by his dear leader. And this is a guy who comes up with this calculation. And when you have Joe Kernan, who is obviously very conservative on Squawk Box, bringing it to him about this.
you know you've got a problem, right? And if this is the calculation that has wiped out $10 trillion in investable assets over the last week or so, then we got some problems. And I'll just tell you this, this is a single point of failure. You cannot play chicken with the U.S. economy and thus the global economy based on shitty math. And that's what they've done, Guy. Well, listen, as I said, I mean, it's all, but it's all built on the belief that if there's a trade deficit, we're losing and then trying to sort of right what they view as a wrong
you know they come up with this formula which by the way apparently you could have sort of put into one of those bots that you talk about all the time and would have spit out the exact same thing but the methodology is clearly flawed and listen the market is coming to that realization now
Here we are, and we're going to talk about it on Market Call in a more granular way, you know, where it levels in the S&P, where we're going to have to start to have some conversations and there's enough damage been done. But to your point, I mean, when you see some of the moves in the global markets, some of the carnage that's out there and in the currency markets and in the global bond markets, I
I mean, obviously, there's this huge reset going on that the global economy and global markets are trying to come to grips with right now. Yeah. And, you know, we talk about this a lot. OK, so, you know, it's one thing.
to put your finger on, excuse me, to put your finger on some event, some policy, right? Some situation. It could be something that no one kind of could expect to happen, right? And then you have market dislocations, right? Like we're having right now. And, you know, then there's other things like when we just, you know, we want to,
investors have to take some responsibility for this. And you've been talking about this, I think going back to the financial crisis, kind of the moral hazard that had been created, like the lack of standards, you know what I mean, in the banking system, the laxness of policy and like, and, you know, so it's one thing to have a financial markets crash. There's another thing to have a recession that's associated with it. But everybody has to take their share of blame in this. And, you know, and this is not, you know, like look at an NVIDIA.
OK, for two and a half years, this has powered a disproportionate amount of the returns in the S&P 500. Last year, when the S&P 500 was up 25 percent, NVIDIA's performance was 25 percent of those 25 percent gains. Just think about that. That was one stock. So here it is. It's down 40 percent. And two months ago, no one thought it. Well, the bulls thought this could not happen.
Okay. It could not happen. So this is one of the things they felt the same way about meta just a month ago, you know, in two months ago or three months ago, Tesla doubled. It gained three quarters of a trillion dollars in market cap. So Tesla,
I guess my point is, is like investors are going to have to actually take some responsibility for this too. And that's one thing the administration kind of has right guy, in my opinion, is like taking out some of this excess. The issue that I have is that's fine for the markets. It's not good for the economy. They should have been using, again, a scalpel when they were using a jackhammer to figure out how to do global trade. I agree with that. I mean, I've said that as well. And in terms of investors, I mean, I think,
I think we both agree on it. And I don't use the term investors often because I don't think there really are investors anymore. I just think they're basically people that put money into the market somewhat blindly through these passive investment vehicles. And as I've said a hundred different times, passive investing doesn't care about any of the things that we were concerned about for the last couple of years, valuation, geopolitical risk,
tape bombs that we talk about. You know, passive investing is impervious to that. And the companies that went to passive investing are names like Apple and Nvidia and Amazon and all these companies that are in hundreds of different ETFs. And as money flows in, they win. But one of the other things that I've said
countless times is when passive becomes active, it ain't active on the way up. And you're seeing glimpses of that now. I mean, it's exactly what we've talked about. Now you're seeing the other side of passive investing. And by the way, you're seeing the other side of these zero data expiry options, which nobody talked about on the way up. And when the market's going higher, it's always for fundamental reasons and sound economic. And the fundamentals make sense and the total addressable market for all these different companies and their upside and
And then on the downside, you know, everybody wants to blame things that were basically helping you on the way up. So there's an irony to all of this as well. And something that I said last night, I don't know if we have the tweet or not, but, you know, when the market's going higher, a lot of times you just have to sort of sit and bite your tongue and people say things that just make you fucking crazy.
But I've probably heard the cash on the sidelines argument for years about why the market, again, had some upside to it. And last night, this is what I tweeted. But all that cash on the sidelines, question marks, where are those assholes now? You know, where are those people that said one of the pillars of the bull case is your cash on the sideline? It's such a lazy comment.
and one that you can't really push back to when the market's going higher because nobody wants to hear it. But I think, you know, when you're seeing the other side of it, you realize that it's all sort of bullshit.
Thank you.
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iConnections is the largest membership-only platform for the alternative investment industry, bringing together thousands of fund managers and allocators on a single, powerful platform. Through its platform and premier in-person events, iConnections reimagines how the industry connects, empowering allocators and managers to meet, build relationships, and do business anytime, anywhere. This June, join us at Global Alts New York, June 9th and 10th,
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Now let's focus a little bit on the market. So C.C. Lagader, our main man there, C-Dawg, as you like to call him, he writes... I've never used that term in my life. So he writes a newsletter that comes out Sunday nights, and he, among other things, just kind of a wrap of some of the news over the weekend, but also a bit of a look ahead on some of the data that we're going to get and some of the earnings and some of the big Fed speak and the like here. But this caught my eye, guy, the implied move.
in the options market for the S&P 500 coming into this week was 6% plus or minus. Okay, just to put that in some context, CeCe has been writing this all year long, okay, for nearly three months here, or more than three months. And the implied move on average coming into each week has been about 1.5%. Now, if you look at the S&P down nearly 5% right now, the fact that we can achieve that movement
in one day it obviously speaks to a vix that you know traded as high as 60 i think overnight it's right now at 54. you were just talking about volatility and the lack thereof and that kind of melt up that we've seen over the last two years or so and here it is it's coming back
as you would say, in spades. How do you get a stock market to settle the you know what down here a little bit? Because again, I don't know, can you categorize three trading days, 5% declines? Let's assume the S&P closed here at four. What is that? That's not a correction.
That's a crash. No, absolutely. And when every single cable news show and network news show, their lead and 10 minutes into these shows are still talking about the stock market, that's what scares people. And that's the other thing that I've said. U.S. consumer will spend under any circumstances
unless they get scared of something. And typically what scares them is what we're seeing now. So you're going to see spending stop on a dime, which is problematic. But to answer your question specifically, how does this sort of reconcile itself? Well, you're getting close. I mean, there's still room to the upside in the VIX. We've seen the VIX north of 80, and maybe we're setting up for that type of thing. I don't know. But we've also said now since the summer of last year that buckle up because volatility was going to be a story. So we've been consistent on that.
I think what needs to happen is we need to trade down to some of these support levels that Carter Worth put out in his note. And we'll drill a little bit deeper on the 11 o'clock market call show. So you get to some sort of fundamental support. And then you maybe you get the capitulation in the terms of some in terms of volume, in terms of levels for some of these individual names. But, you know, we might be close, but I just don't think we're there yet.
Yeah. And, you know, one thing, again, going back to the retail aspect of it, Guy, I don't know if you saw Treasury Secretary Besson on Meet the Press yesterday morning. And I was actually kind of alarmed at how bad he was. OK, and this is the sort of thing that, again, it goes back to if you are not paying attention, you want to get if you're the administration and you think there's a disconnect between what's going on in the markets and
and what their policy is or what they're trying to, you know what I mean, what they're trying to make happen here, then you have to send your best and brightest people out. Seeing Besson nervous as shit, okay? Like he looked nervous saying what I think are some like nonsensical things. It didn't make sense what he was trying to say. And then you change the channel and you go listen to Howard Lutnick.
the Commerce Secretary, and he is just a sycophant. At least there's a difference between Besson. He didn't say President Trump every 15 seconds. That's what Lutnick's doing. And it's just, there's no confidence being relayed to the people who are watching the stock market careen lower because to your point,
Normally the headline when you go to local news is like, you know, something that somebody, you know, getting a cat out of a tree or, you know, you go to whatever MSNBC or Fox or this. And then on the flip side of it, MSNBC is leading with this. CNN's leading with this. Jim Cramer was on CNN twice over the last few days. What does that tell you? That's not even our network, right? Like he's going to talk to the people. And then on the other thing, on the Fox side of things, they took the stock market ticker off Fox News uncensored.
on Friday. They're like saying, don't look here, look there. And sooner or later, those people are going to pay attention. They're going to wake up and they're going to be like, what the hell? And that's when you get the pitchforks out. I mean, like, that's like the sort of situation. So I guess my point is, is like sooner or later, Wall Street's going to hit Main Street. And we're going to put this in the show note. Boaz Weinstein, who's a credit guy, Saba Capital,
Very smart guy. I don't know if you've ever met him, but I've been following his work. I used to know him 20 some years ago. He was on over the weekend on Bloomberg. And this lets us pull up this article because I think this is really important.
So he's talking about all this policy and you've been talking about credit. You've been talking about high yield credit. You've been talking about corporate credit. But when you have credit spreads blow out and you have companies adversely affected by this, the cost of capital, a whole host of things, right? Well, companies sometimes have a hard time staying afloat. You could. Oh, look at that. You love that Laird Hamilton. Can you see that? Wait, let's stop here for a second.
Look at that guy. You love this commercial. This is CME Group. Great friends of the pod. OK, like that's tapped into your brain right there. Look at that. Give us two seconds on Laird Hamilton for a second there, because I know you love that.
Now it's now. No, I do love it now, but I'm looking at somebody's talking right now. You know, Sonali from Bloomberg. She was talking to Boaz at a blackjack table, which, but he's talking about a cascade of bankruptcies, which obviously lead to what exactly you've been saying about the unemployment rate here. And, you know, one thing that really bugged me and I was shut up in a second is that Besson, okay, trying to make the case for why the economy here in the U S was going to be able to withstand the
You know what I mean? The reaction to this policy, because he pointed to this, you ready for this? He pointed to the March jobs report. That was better than expected. And this administration has been pointing to the jobs reports over the last four years saying it's all a fugazi because it's all been government hiring. That's what he's leading with. It's problem. It's without question. I didn't see it, but you know, if I were him, I'd be nervous as well, because as you've said, they're playing a high stakes game of poker right now. I think, you know,
This is one thing we've said. By the way, credit to Danny Moses, who has said a number of times, if you find yourself in an environment where rates are going lower and the stock market is going lower, you have a problem. And we're obviously seeing that in spades over the last couple of weeks. But
There's also an environment now where stocks can sort of flatten out and rates start going higher in a meaningful way as people start to maybe question our credit worthiness. And real quick, stop an HYG chart because you mentioned it. And this is something I've also said, don't trade it, but watch it.
And look at how quickly this thing has sort of fallen off a cliff. And the credit side of this equation could be potentially somewhat problematic as well. So there's a cavalcade of things to be concerned about. And the fact that they're pointing to the jobs number on Friday or the jobs report on Friday is sort of a silver lining. And you're the silver lining guy. I mean, that obviously is problematic because as you know, and I think most of the people here know, that's backward looking. And I think
As I've said a number of times as well, I think the unemployment rate has surprised people how quickly we start ticking higher. So there are a litany of things that are extraordinarily concerning. If there is any good news, it's the speed with which this is happening. Maybe it can sort of flush itself out in terms of the market.
within the next couple weeks. Yeah, you know, you made a good point about the American consumer. You know, they'll spend, spend, spend until something changes. And, you know, we've had a bunch of strategists on over the last month or so. They were pointing to that kind of deteriorating consumer confidence reports. We've seen a bunch of them. They've been talking about how bifurcated they are relative to who you voted for in the 2024 election, which is interesting. But it's weeks like this
that cause you to kind of think twice. And, you know, I just want to make this point about Friday's action. We threw up my screen from Friday and I'm looking at it today. All of the defensive sectors, Guy, that had been holding up a bit
Since February 19th, that kind of rotation out of cyclicals into defensive, what is that, consumer staples and utilities and a handful of other things, they all went down and they were down a lot. So when you see correlations go to one, and that's what you're seeing again today, that's really bad, right, for just the broad markets, the internals.
I mean, the like the other thing you just mentioned yields. Let's look at the tenure. That's something that the administration has also been pointing to because they said about a month ago they're targeting yielding. That'll benefit unlock the housing market a little bit, unlock the HELOC market that that a little bit. But if people are losing their jobs, if confidence is going lower, if the economy is going into shit, have a ball having the you know, the.
No, look, how many times have I said this as well? You know, they obviously in the first Trump administration, they talked about the stock market being a report card for how well they were doing. And, you know, the stock market did extraordinarily well, obviously, until COVID, the world changed. But
you know, for the first couple of years, you know, you saw a stock market that did its thing. Now they're focused on rates. And I think incorrectly, but I think the thought process is if they can get rates lower, the stock market will take care of itself. And I know I've said this and you've said it and Danny and Vinny and Porter have said it. It's that be careful what you wish for, because, you know, in getting rates lower, you're starting to sort of crash things and
You know, the stock market's not going to like that. And there is a scenario, by the way, where, as I mentioned, now you could start to see a reversal in the bond market where the TLT starts trading down in a meaningful way. As again, sort of people start to question whether or not they should be buying our bonds on the back of all the uncertainty. And I hate that word, but that's we're in the midst of.
right now. So the next part of this story, the next chapter in this book could be a reversal in the bond market where yields start to go higher, uh,
Uh, the market's not going to like that either, Dan. Yeah. Before we get to the stock market, cause some things are kind of moving here a little bit, at least on my screen, I'm seeing a bit more green or things. Why is it that over the last Friday on the opening was the high of the S and P today on the opening, obviously we dipped a little bit and the 10 year yield had gone from four Oh five down to like three 80, but then back up. So why, why have we seen yields?
rise, okay, as the stock market was making lows and then it was doing the inverse, right? So, you know, that sort of volatility seems like a bit of a disconnect. And it's probably something when you see, you know, some of these kind of correlations go haywire a little bit, that's also something you want to pay attention to. Look, I mean, it's 953. I mean, there's a very good chance today. And when I say very good, north of 50% chance the S&P goes positive
at one point this day and then you know people talk about is that it is that the capitulation and you know are you ready to put capital to work and deploy capital you know all the things you hear
In a VIX of 50 or north, you're going to see moves both up and down that don't make a lot of sense. So I guess my point is strap in. And, you know, if you were to see the S&P positive today, which, again, I will say there's a very good chance of that happening. Well, let's see what happens in the bond market, because it's going to be sort of that whack-a-mole thing. You get one thing right and two other things sort of pop up.
Yeah. And so, Guy, I've gotten this question from a lot of folks who are, you know, again, they probably look at their, you know, their statements, their, you know, investment statements, like let's call it, you know, every few weeks, once a month, whatever the hell it is, right?
And so, you know, people are like, what do you do? And, you know, I don't know about you, but like, I'm not one of these people who wants to sell into an environment like this. Right. And so some of my advice is if this is the first time in which you're asking that question over the last few months or so, and let's just say you have a typical, let's call it 70-30 sort of portfolio right now. I think a lot of folks have been over allocated to expectations.
over the last couple years, the last few years. It's been easy to do that to your point, right? You're seeing passive investing. You're seeing outperformance by these indices. When I say outperformance relative to the average stock in the indices, because you have that concentration, at least in the S&P and the NASDAQ of those big games. So now it's gone the opposite
it way. So if you're looking at the average mega cap tech stock that's down a lot more, let's say, than the S&P on the year, because I see an S&P down 16% and I see some of the biggest names at least down 20, 25, 30% or something like that. So what do you do now? Well, if you're just coming to this, then you start dialing. If you have some of that cash that's on the sidelines, you start
dollar cost averaging in here. Do you agree with that? Down 20% in the S&P, down 25% in the NASDAQ. Because if you start doing that now, even if we go down another 15% or something like that, and you do it every week, every month, whatever it is, you're going to be okay in two years. Listen, you've talked about that for a while. Absolutely. And the other thing that we've said pretty consistently is,
Let's just play the game right now. So throw up Apple because that's everybody's love child, right? And this was a stock that traded $260 or so. I don't know when it was, Dan. Probably in December, I think. Late December. Late December, yeah.
And, you know, we have said, I know I've said countlessly over that. I thought, you know, would round trip that move from June. We talked about it earlier in the show. If I said to you in December that you're going to have an opportunity to buy Apple south of $185, would you sign up? And every single person would have been like,
absolutely sign me up. Well, here we are and people are terrified. So my point about taking him have levels in place. And as we've said, the reasons why we get to these levels are always going to be scarier than you ever imagined, but here we are. So the extent you can just sort of say, okay, here's my level. Let's get in. Absolutely. And these individual names and dance point about the sort of just let, basically layering in over the course of time,
Yeah, that makes sense as well, because you're probably going to see some more downdrafts over the next couple of weeks. But, you know, we're going to be here six months from now, and I guarantee you're going to have these people raising their price targets. The S&P 500 talking about what we saw earlier in the year was the capitulation. Like you can sort of see how this sort of plays out.
But again, take emotion out of the equation. Yeah. And so one of the things you just mentioned that you think there's a good chance the S&P could be up on the day at some point. I just want to make a point about like when we started doing this, you know, the low in JP Morgan was 202. It's trading near 209 right now. OK, so it's basically down less than 1 percent.
You're seeing that in Amazon. It's basically unchanged. It was down like 3.5%. I'm seeing a handful of semis starting to firm up a little bit. NVIDIA, which was down 6.5%, is only down 1.5%. So you're seeing these formations that look like spike bottoms on big volume. What does that mean? You saw a big selling on the opening, so that means a lot of volume. You saw a big down move in those names, maybe 4% or 5% or something like that. And here they are. They're trading at Friday's
closed now. So what does that look like on a bar chart? You have these little spikes that show you basically where the stock or the underlying is trading. So when you have a huge move like that, you have a gap fill from the prior day is closed. That's a very powerful technical formation. So if you have gone from the mindset of buying the dips to selling the rips, you want to be careful. You want to see how much
rip you have after such a short period of time and such a decline. And that's for the traders. What we were talking about before about the dollar cost averaging, those are the folks who just get wise to what's going on or started to pay attention over the weekend. And now they're saying, okay, I'm always looking for opportunities to add to, you know what I mean, my investment portfolio.
This is probably a good way to do it. I'm not saying right here. I'm not saying, you know what I mean? Like tomorrow, wherever it's just like, make a plan to your point, what you said. And, you know, even if it's a little bit every week, every month or whatever, you'll be happy about that is how you traded a market crash, if you will. And, you know, listen, we could be looking a week from now, guy, and we could be, you know, gained, you know,
half of the losses back, whatever, if there's some big grand deal, you know, about tariffs, my, and I'd love to get your take. So what I think happens first, you get Canada and Mexico, you know what I mean? Some sort of deal that obviously causes a little bit of a short squeeze, a relief rally. Then you start working on the EU. It seems like China is really drilling down right now. They're talking about more stimulus to counteract, you know what I mean? The, so in that sort of sequence, you know what I mean? If you get our, our trading partners, the biggest ones and our
allies, you know, on the same page with us, that's probably something that puts the floor on the markets here. Yeah. No, look, all those things are probably, there's an inevitability to certain things. I mean, as much as this is an administration that probably doesn't want to negotiate because in negotiating, they lose sort of the teeth of these entire things. And, you know, the statement you're making to companies who you want to reshore is, well, maybe
Maybe you want to hold off on that because there's a negotiation in process. So if you really want these companies to come back, you have to be somewhat steadfast, but you have to be respectful of what's going on in the market. So they will walk that tightrope, and I think the market will react in kind accordingly.
But the amount of tape bombs both to the upside and the downside in a VIX that's either side of 50 is going to, I think, surprise people about how quickly we can go up and down. Real quick before we get out of here, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, 2 o'clock. So that's always fun. Not necessarily market moving, but it's going to be interesting to see.
what people are talking about. CPI on Thursday, Dan, I think will be worth the watch as well. And then Friday we have PPI. In the midst of all that, you're going to get a lot of Fed speak. And I think in about an hour, there's a Fed meeting as well. Yeah. So on the inflation thing, Guy, so the administration was also pointing to crude oil, which has gone from like 72 bucks to, you know, right now it's about
just below $61. So, you know, they had yields come down, they had crude oil come down. You know, those were two things that they were kind of pointing to. I think you and I would agree that crude has something to do with supply and has something to do with a reflection of global growth. Oh, by the way,
We got a question. Maybe you could just hit this. I got one over the weekend about gold, which is trading back at 3000 here. And so when you see something like gold and Bitcoin sell off with the market, is that just kind of risk off? Is it, you know, in your opinion, is it like people selling what they can sell? That's been, you know, I think that's exactly right. I think it's just sort of, you know, when there's forced liquidation going on, they're not, there are no asset classes that are going to be sort of impervious to that. And I think,
That's what we're seeing in gold specifically. I mean, Bitcoin's its own animal. And again, I don't think Bitcoin is trading well at all. And we've talked about the potential for it to get down to 72,000 and how that level is potentially where the average price of micro strategies or now strategies cost is going to be. And some fascinating things could happen around that. But specifically about gold.
Yeah, nothing's changed in my view. I mean, this is the exact environment that you've wanted to be in gold for quite some time. So I think it's, for me, it's at least steady as she goes. Yeah, well, last thing before we get out of here, earnings this week. I think there's some really interesting ones. You know, today after the close is Levi, Levi Strauss. I know those are the dungarees that you wear. What's interesting to me about here is,
I don't know where their manufacturing is by the time we do another pod or maybe on market call. We'll look and see. I suspect that this is a great American brand, but I also suspect that they probably have a lot of their product made in Asia, that sort of thing. So it'll be interesting to see what that company has to say about tariffs. The other one is Delta. This is a company that had already pre-announced. And again, they turned on a dime as far as what they were seeing, not just from consumers, but
also from business. So that's Wednesday pre-market. And then on Friday, pre-market, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley. I mean, this is the mother load and you have to assume whatever they were gonna say a month ago about consumers,
and businesses, you know, that sort of thing, whatever the commentary is, it's not going to be particularly rosy. The visibility they have is not going to be great. But I know you and I are both waiting to hear what Jamie Diamond has to say about the environment because it's been over the weekend that he's been somewhat critical. Yeah, listen, again, always must listen more so now given obviously what's been happening over the last couple of weeks. I think he's going to try to do his best. You know, it's a thing we talk about all the time. The best time to have a coaching moment and to get sort of
to rip people on your team a new ass is when you're winning. The worst time is when you're losing and everybody's down. So I don't think Jamie Dimon's going to be as dour as sort of...
I don't know, hyperbolic. That's probably not the right word, but as concerned as he's been, I think he's going to try to sort of assuage some of the concerns, but it's definitely worth listening to. And we're going to be back in about 55 minutes to do a market call where we're going to look at charts, get a little more granular, a little more visual, but we just wanted to set the week up with this podcast, Dan. All right, peeps. Thanks for being with us on the opening. This little trial that we did, the Rish Rishel podcast live on the opening. We'll see you all at the market call
11 a.m today we do that every day live actually monday through thursday so we'll check you later very soon