cover of episode Mike Wilson on Volatility, Policy Shocks & The Real Tariff Endgame

Mike Wilson on Volatility, Policy Shocks & The Real Tariff Endgame

2025/5/23
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Mike Wilson: 我认为特朗普政府的经济政策与以往不同，因为我们正处于一个不同的经济周期。在2016年，我们正走出全球制造业衰退，通货膨胀不是问题。因此，特朗普上任后，通过借贷和支出来刺激经济，这对股市非常有利。但现在，经济没有闲置，通货膨胀正在抬头，因此政府必须首先采取增长负面的措施，如移民执法、财政约束和关税。此外，人工智能也在达到顶峰，这将导致资本支出放缓。我认为所有这些因素的结合将在上半年对市场造成压力，但下半年他们将采取支持增长的措施。贝森明确指出，他们担心的是债券市场，而不是股市，并且在前九个月不打算拥有这个经济。他希望通过厨房水槽策略，将前半年的问题归咎于上届政府或CEO，然后采取增长积极的措施。自由日公告过于戏剧化，导致市场迅速崩溃，之后特朗普开始关注市场。我最初的叙述是正确的，只是发生得更快、更戏剧化，我对市场如此迅速地反弹感到惊讶。

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Dan Nathan is joined by Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist and CIO at Morgan Stanley. They discuss a wide range of topics including market volatility, the impact of different economic policies under the Trump administration, and the future direction of trade, tariffs, and taxes. Mike shares insights from his midyear outlook, predicting a constructive back half of the year despite anticipated volatility. The conversation also touches on the implications of supply constraints, the private economy, and the role of AI in market dynamics. They delve into the complexities of the bond market, the global debt issue, and the potential impact of Japanese yields on US markets. The episode provides a deep dive into the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the strategies investors might consider in navigating the current economic landscape.

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