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cover of episode Mike Wilson's 2025 Outlook

Mike Wilson's 2025 Outlook

2025/1/24
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On The Tape

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Mike Wilson: 我认为去年春天我们转向更乐观的原因是,许多人预测的衰退并没有发生,而且我们注意到流动性状况正在显著改善。我们对盈利的预测一直很准确,但我们低估了市场估值。夏季巨大的流动性,特别是M2增长,推动了市场上涨,资金流入了高质量股票。当前市场上涨的主要原因是过剩的流动性,资金流入高质量股票和黄金等资产。被动的投资趋势主要由经济因素驱动,即成本更低,并已形成自身发展势头。尽管整体盈利并非市场上涨的主要驱动因素,但在某些特定领域,盈利增长强劲,例如金融、软件、媒体和娱乐以及消费服务行业。AI的积极影响主要体现在少数半导体公司和其他公司,而非整个科技行业。利率突破4.5%导致市场回调,尤其对低质量股票影响较大。汇率波动将对跨国公司的业绩和预期产生影响,而国内公司受影响较小。政府的政策变化,特别是关税政策,可能会对某些行业(如服装消费品)产生影响。从长期来看,当前的市场估值过高,未来投资回报可能较低。只要美联储持续降息且盈利预期持续上升,市场估值不太可能大幅下降。市场面临两大潜在冲击:一是外生冲击导致增长放缓,盈利不再增长;二是长期利率失控。利率达到4.5%确实对市场造成影响,但随后通胀数据和就职典礼等因素暂时缓解了市场压力。未来国债发行规模巨大,可能导致长期利率上升。通货膨胀可能卷土重来,这可能会促使美联储再次加息。当前的经济环境与特朗普第一次当选时不同,当时的经济存在产出缺口,而现在产出缺口为负。我认为2025年上半年市场表现将较为混乱,但下半年可能表现良好,届时市场将出现扩散。生成式AI技术的应用需要时间来扩散到更广泛的经济领域,这可能需要等到2026年或2027年才能实现。AI技术目前主要体现在节省劳动力方面,而非提高生产力,这可能会导致就业市场出现问题。AI领域的资本支出可能出现过剩,这可能会导致市场回调。市场从集中到分散通常发生在市场下跌期间,除非出现衰退。消费者正在用债务对抗通货膨胀,这在就业市场可能软化的背景下,存在风险。低端和中端消费者一直在苦苦挣扎,零售业股票也反映了这一点。经济在过去几年中发展失衡,政府支出增长迅速。如果政府支出减少,可能会导致轻微的衰退,但这可能对消费者来说是一种解脱,并最终促进私人经济的繁荣。如果政府不进行改变,可能会导致再次面临选举压力。衡量金融体系流动性非常困难,因为存在各种复杂的金融工具和机制。黄金价格走势可能预示着市场流动性状况的变化。在财政支出持续增长的环境下,长期持有黄金、加密货币和高质量股票是理想的投资策略。机构投资者长期以来一直在投资高质量股票,这种趋势持续存在。通货膨胀加速时,企业盈利通常会增长,但股票表现可能因估值下降而受到影响。标普500指数可能已经达到峰值利润率。当前市场环境是牛市,但需要谨慎区分泡沫和牛市。投资者的任务是寻找尚未被高估的投资机会,并对那些可能被高估的投资机会保持谨慎。 Dan Nathan: (补充观点) Guy Adami: (补充观点)

Deep Dive

Chapters
Mike Wilson discusses his bullish shift in outlook last spring, driven by improving liquidity and the market's unexpected resilience. He highlights the accuracy of his earnings forecasts while acknowledging the unexpected multiple expansion. The conversation touches upon the significant influx of passive investment and the role of international flows.
  • Bullish pivot due to improved liquidity and market resilience
  • Accurate earnings forecasts
  • Significant passive money inflow
  • Role of international flows

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome back Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Mike reflects on his previous bullish pivot due to improved liquidity and the unexpected resilience of the market. They discuss the importance of earnings forecasts, the impact of liquidity on high-quality stocks, and potential shifts in international flows. The conversation turns to the passive investing trend, potential economic factors affecting interest rates, and the influence of international monetary policies, such as the BOJ's rate decisions. Key topics include the role of earnings revisions, currency impacts on multinationals, and how various sectors might react to the evolving economic landscape. The podcast delves into market valuations, the potential of AI, CapEx cycles, and the broader implications of liquidity. They conclude by discussing investor sentiment, the resilience of high-quality stocks, and the broader economic outlook heading into the first half of the year.

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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