More To Markets Than The Mag7 with Robinhood CIO Stephanie Guild
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On the Tape.

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Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Guy Adami, always joined by Dan Nathan on what is going to be, I think, a very busy week.

Given what's going on over the last 72 hours, but Dan, a little bit of housekeeping here. Before we get to a full week, as you just said, Guy, of great conversations, we have one for you that I think you're not going to want to miss. This is Steph Gill. She is the CIO of Robinhood. We go through a lot of the stuff that her customers are really focused on, the sorts of things that they are trading, how they weathered this storm over the last

few months or so. So really interesting conversation there. Steph also gives us her sense of the markets here, what she is looking for as far as S&P earnings and her targets and the like. We are recording this on Sunday evening. A lot of news going on. You are listening to this on Monday morning, but we got a full slate

of content here this week at Risk Reversal Podcast. Our main man, Danny Moses, the host of the On The Tape podcast is sitting down with Vincent Daniel, Porter Collins, and they're recording Tuesday afternoon for a Wednesday morning drop. So check out our friends from the Big Short. You and I are speaking to David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. That's going to drop

Wednesday morning, we are also speaking to Jim Chanos, legendary short seller and friend of the pod. That's going to drop on Friday morning. You and I are going to be doing Market Call Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. You saw what I was going for there, Guy. We also have some earnings. You thought earnings were done. We've got FedEx on Tuesday, Micron on Wednesday, Nike on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell speaking Tuesday morning.

a couple of consumer confidence readings, and then Friday guy, the Fed's most favored inflation reading. That would be the PCE. But we don't want to bury the lead. And obviously the leads, what's been taking place over the last sort of 48 hours, I think everybody's obviously seen it unless they've been vacationing somewhere. And obviously what's transpired in Iran has futures slightly lower, gold slightly higher,

Crude oil, significantly higher, although not nearly as much as I thought. And I think, generally speaking, has the market a little bit on edge here, because I don't know if people can map out what's going to be next in this entire thing. Yeah. And on a Sunday night, when people are trying to digest this for markets, yields down a little bit on the 10-year. That means that folks are buying treasuries. The US dollar index has rallied a little bit over the last week or so. So maybe that is that

flight to safety. You and I are not calling it a flight to quality. But, Guy, you've been doing this for a while. Used to trade oil back in the day. These sorts of dust-ups that you see on a geopolitical standpoint, they seem to be somewhat ephemeral. If you go back and you look at a crude chart going back 30 years, you'll see some significant spikes, right, around some big, whatever they are, geopolitical dust-ups, that sort of thing. But maybe this one's a little different. And here's my two cents after reading a

lot about this and how the Israelis kind of started this thing over a week ago. And what they really did, in my opinion, is they put the U.S. in a very difficult situation not to A, back them, but B, follow through with what the Israelis wanted to do. So we did that. This is Sunday morning. They used these bunker busters. They flew our B-52s

and drop them there. We don't know yet, you know, how successful they were in taking out most of Iran's nuclear capabilities. But this is going to be the thing. What is the retaliation, right, by the Iranians? Do they attack U.S. installations forces like in the Middle East? Are there going to be some terrorist activities in the Western world, that sort of thing? None of this is obviously known. And so the question I have for you guys, you think about this,

I don't think there's going to be a simple solution anytime soon. If we do find ourselves in a situation where both the Israelis and us, the U.S., find ourselves going after regime change, this is the sort of thing that I think a lot of folks worry about. Do we get into one of these forever wars, whether it's Iraq, whether it's Afghanistan? And so I just don't think this is going to be as femoral as some folks think it might be, Guy.

Yeah, I mean, I think we've learned our lesson here about regime change. And this doesn't seem to be an administration that wants to follow through with that, nor should they, by the way. The people of Iran want to have a regime change. I mean, they can rise up and do it. And I'm sure there are probably things at work

in terms of that. But in terms of the markets and what we're sort of tasked to do, you mentioned in Crude Oil, and that's obviously top of mind for everybody. And we've been talking about the knee-jerk reactions we've seen with crude over the years with geopolitical events, and they're typically short-lived rallies. And what we've said was, unless something were to take place

like the Straits of Hormuz being closed. And the Iranian parliament voted to do that. They need to go down to a higher body for final approval to do that. I don't know if that's a rubber stamp or not, but it's clearly going to be problematic, I think, for any ships passing through to sort of think about what they're getting themselves into. So whether or not it's closed or not, I think there's going to be some trepidation. And I don't know how long that lasts. And

I don't know when cooler heads prevail. So that to me is really the thing that we should be focused on because of the economic impact, not only here in the United States, but globally. And obviously it becomes very inflationary in terms of what it means for the price of oil. And you can think about the dependence that we have obviously on it and obviously some of our allies as well. And what I've been reading recently

Additionally, what you've been reading, the United States is going to try to pressure China, of all people, to sort of pressure Iran not to close the straits. So it's a really fascinating thing to see who the bedfellows are now as we sort of work our way through this.

Yeah, I think 20 to 25% of oil that's moving around the globe moves through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis. I think it's over 20 million barrels. And this goes back to last Wednesday, guys, the Fed chair. He caught a lot of heat. I thought the press and we talked about this on Fast Money in the Pods. They're really trying to drill down.

on why the Fed isn't thinking about lowering interest rates sooner, right? If they have inflation going in the direction that they had hoped for the last couple of years, but they also guided down their growth forecast. So when you think about just a situation like this, this is actually trumping for all intents and purposes,

the trade war and the tariffs. You know what I mean? Like that's the thing that we've been talking about for the last sort of month and a half or so. That's the thing that has kept the Fed at bay from lowering interest rates. And now all of a sudden you say, okay, Fed Chair Powell, he's hanging out right here. He's basically saying we're going to be data dependent. We're still worried about inflation kind of picking itself back up. And this is the sort of headline I think that probably keeps the Fed on hold at least through September.

but possibly longer depending upon how this gets drawn out. And you just said this. It's like very interesting bedfellows right here, right? Who knows how this is going to shake out? And at the end of the day, though, God, the stock market investors don't seem too bothered one way or another. That's exactly the point. And that's been the point for quite some time that the market seems to look past

any potentially negative news or any actual negative news. And as we're sitting here, Doug Cass put out a piece over the weekend talking about the valuations of the market and how excessive they are, especially given sort of the backdrop. And again, the level, and the word keeps coming up over and over again, the level of complacency that the market seems to have. And I don't think it's necessarily complacency.

complacency with the individuals and or the institutions because I do think there's a level of trepidation out there. But when you have passive inflows into the stock market, they are not concerned at all in terms of what's going on. And those passive inflows of what has created these valuations. And we've said 100 times passive is great until it becomes active. And we saw a

glimpses of that in early April, what happens when passive becomes active. And you can see how quickly things go lower. They are typically only a few to maybe a handful of days events, and then we're right back on the rail. So if this is not a derailing thing, it's hard to imagine what potentially could be.

Yeah, and I think it's also worth noting that the S&P on Friday afternoon closed down a little bit, up about 1.5% on the year. The NASDAQ composite ended up down 50 basis points, down up on the year a little less than 1%. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, ordinary investors are soaring on big tech. Some worry about stretched valuations.

which is just something that you just referenced, Doug, saying investors are reevaluating their holdings and tech stocks, especially the Magnificent Seven after April's market rebound. Some investors are shifting towards international stocks, smaller companies, utilities, and consumer staples. So all of that seems a bit defensive other than, let's say, small caps. And so what's interesting about that guy to me, and we've highlighted this a little bit over the last couple of weeks, Apple's still down 20% of the year. Tesla's down 20% of the year.

Amazon's down 4.5% of the year. Google had a horrible day on Friday, down 4%, putting it down nearly 12% of the year. So of the Mag 7, you have NVIDIA up 7%, Microsoft up nearly 14%, and Meta up about 17%. So again, the kind of, I don't know what you'd call it, the Mag 7 is not the leadership this year, but you have an S&P 500 that was down 10% in early April, and now it's probably with Monday's close, let's call it up 1% or something like that,

The jury is still out as we head into the end of the first half of this year. And a lot of folks coming into this year, the targets that they had for the S&P 500 based on basically S&P 500 earnings growth that they were expecting. These are a lot of the strategists we'd heard time and time again.

at the end of last year, expect a much lower return environment. We had two consecutive years above 25%. And that seems to be what we're having, despite a lot of stuff being thrown at us from a geopolitics standpoint, from an economic standpoint. I just do think it's interesting that the S&P is basically flat on the year. I would expect, given everything that we know, including valuations that you just mentioned, that the S&P would be down on the year.

No, I agree with you. And here we are, basically, this is the last week of June, I think, right? And this becomes month end and quarter end this week. I don't know what that necessarily means, but historically, I would say most of the time, probably 80% to 85% of the time, we see sort of markups in the month end and we see markups in the quarter end. So I guess it's safe to

assume we could see similar. I think bringing up the dollar is important. I think the dollar, as you said earlier, had the best week it's had in quite some time last week. And I think these events should create that flight to perceived quality or safety, whatever word you want to use.

I'm really focused on what yields do this week because historically yields should go down significantly on the back of events like this. Again, on the flight to some perceived quality. We'll see if that continues to manifest itself. And you get any more Fed speak on the back of what we've seen over the last 48 hours to maybe go back and re-examine what they've said over the last couple of weeks to these events change dramatically.

the course of action they're on? Or to your earlier point, do things get extended out in terms of rate cuts? And I don't know the answers to any of those things, but the market is the ultimate judge and jury. And right now the market down 20 or so handles in the S&P as we're doing this doesn't seem to care all that much. Yeah, and it brings me back.

I remember back in December 18th when the Fed had that meeting and they were quite hawkish and the market just kind of fell out of bed. It just feels like that we have just not had any sort of that sort of market volatility around inflation readings. That's why I think the PCE after Fed share pal

speaks, listen, he is going to be cautious when he speaks on Tuesday morning in front of Congress. There's going to be a lot of stuff going on in front of Congress over the next week, two, three, or whatever, as it relates to how we follow up with these strikes from over the weekend. It puts us in a situation, I suspect, where we can't just pull back here, right? It's just like we've done a little bit of the heavy lifting as it relates to really taking out these important

nuclear capabilities. The Israelis obviously set the stage for that. But there's parts of the government that just do not feel that a president should be able, and either party, by the way, should be able to act in this capacity without going to Congress. We've seen this as far, the power of the purse. This is something that we spent a few months talking about, and now it's the war powers. This one's going to remain volatile. And I think to some degree, you're going to see bipartisan on both sides making the argument. I expect

a lot of hearings. Guy, one thing I think is worth noting. So on Friday afternoon, some of the semis stocks got hit. Taiwan semi is down nearly 2%. Marvel after a big week was down 2%. And you know, one of the things that just kind of struck me, and I want to get your take on this, because Marvel talked about expanding AMP. That's the total addressable market, right? For these AI chips. We know that they make custom silicon. We know that a bunch of the largest hyperscalers are

Are there customers? We can go back to December when Broadcom and Marvell laid out some TAM estimates looking out longer term. And I just think that's interesting. That's kind of where we are right now, which is one of the reasons why I think it'll be interesting to see what Micron has to say on Wednesday afternoon. Obviously, they supply a lot of the memory that goes into a lot of the servers that power a lot of the data centers. So, you know, this AI industry,

trade as it relates to semis, it's still up in the air for me. It's clearly up in the air. You mentioned Marvell, which I believe made an all-time high in January of this year. I think it was around 127 or so, proceeded to trade down almost in a straight line

to about $47-ish in early April, like everything else. I mean, that was a pretty significant drop. And yeah, the stock has bounced. If you look at it in the context of what that move that I just outlined was, it's pretty much just a blip. Now, the fact that we traded down to levels we basically saw in the fall of 2023 in terms of Marvell is encouraging. But I don't think...

the rally is nearly as robust as it should have been given what they said, just in terms of my opinion. Now, I understand the stock has gone from basically 47 to 73. But again, in the context of that bigger move lower, to me, it's just a bit of a blip. And I do think this is an important week for the whole semi-trade as well. I think a lot rides on what's going on, not only in terms of the fundamentals, but in terms of the geopolitics as well. Yeah. And that's why FedEx, it'll be interesting to see what

They have to say about just global kind of movement of goods. Again, this is a stock in that UPS. They've actually had a really difficult time over the last couple of years. So maybe it's more FedEx specific. You've highlighted that. And then Nike, this one also might be very Nike specific. So it'll be interesting to see what they have to say about tariffs, consumer debauchery.

banned. And that obviously stretches out towards discretion. All right, last thing before we get to the conversation with Steph Gilt from Robinhood, the deregulation that we saw, the banks caught a bid last week. It's worth noting that the BKX is up about three and a half percent on the year. And we just talked about an S&P that's up one and a half percent. If you're looking for some sort of change in leadership, that's one thing I think some investors got geeked up about a little bit

in the last week and a half or so. But is that the sort of leadership that can take the market up? I'm not sure that it can, getting it through new highs, if you don't have that mag seven, if you don't have the semis. Well, mathematically, it can. It's just the banks in today's world are just not big enough in terms of weighting in the S&P for

for it to, unless they have a monumental move. I mean, their weighting suggests it's virtually impossible for the banks to be leadership in a way that's going to keep the S&P 500 moving forward in the way that it has. So the leadership has to be the names we talk about all the time, almost by definition, unless something were to change. And it doesn't feel like anything's changing anytime soon. And you mentioned the big banks. Yeah, they've caught a bid. What I will tell you, and something that you've pointed out as well, the regional banks, if you want to look at it through the lens of the

KRE, which again, might not be the greatest constructed ETF, but this is one that made its all-time high in January of 2022. Think about that for a second. And here we are in June of 2025, and we have a KRE that's basically been floundering sideways to slightly lower ever since. So I think that's worth watching because I think that's a bigger tell on the economy.

Yeah, I think another tell just as it relates to demand for financials in general or pockets of risk that maybe are underappreciated, it's Blackstone is down 19% of the year. Apollo is down 18% of the year. KKR is down 17% of the year. They're all down a lot more from their all-time highs, 52-week highs made about a year ago. So I think that's

kind of worth keeping an eye on. All right, you and I, we're going to be doing the market call 11 a.m. Eastern, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We'll keep you all up to speed on what we're seeing in the markets, how we are trading it and the like here. Stick around. Conversation with Steph Gill. Guy, we've got a big one this week.

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Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan. I'm joined again by Stephanie Guild. She is the CIO at Robinhood. Steph, welcome back to the podcast. Thank you. Thanks for having me again. All right. You haven't been, I can't believe this. This is the first time in 2025. This year. Does that sound right? Yeah. You joined us a couple times in 2024. I've seen you on CNBC a bunch. You do a lot of media and you're great at it. I'm going to ask you a question.

We appreciate you being here. It's Friday morning. It's just before the opening. We had the market close yesterday for Juneteenth, and we did have the Fed meeting Wednesday afternoon. Right. Kind of a weird setup. Yeah. So you and I were going to talk a little bit about Fed, what you took away from it, some of your thoughts about, you know, basically, you know, monetary policy for the balance of the year, maybe headed into next year. We'll talk tariffs. We'll talk tax. We'll talk. Is there something else with the tea I can throw in there? And then

transitory, maybe. How's that? Transitory. We're going to hit the three T's. We'll talk a little bit about tech disruption. And I think the company that you work for, I think you guys have been at the forefront of some interesting stuff on the tech front and financial services. So we'll talk a little bit about that. And then hopefully we'll get to what your customers are doing and thinking. I know that you have a good beat on that. Yeah.

Yeah. Sounds like a full agenda. We got a lot to do. We have a really important guest in the studio. His name is Griffin. He's your son who is eight years old and he is helping Bill outrun this fine podcast. So thank you, Griffin. All right, let's do it. You're sitting there like everybody else. You're see the obviously what comes out from the Fed at two o'clock that they have a presser goes from like what, two thirty to three fifteen or something like that. Mark,

usually move around a little bit. I guess the messaging out of the gate was not anything that people were surprised by. Right, so market went up. Yeah, it went up and then it went down and then it closed dead flat on the day. You know, one quick take I had was that obviously there's a lot of investors. Most investors really do want the Fed to get a bit easier.

Right. Everybody. And including our president. Right. Including the president. But also, it seemed to me that a lot of the questioning by the press pool to Fed Chair Powell, they were like beating the same drum. Like, what are you going to lower? Why do you stay put? You know what I mean? So let's talk a little bit about what you heard, how you kind of come out thinking about it. I went into it thinking there's no way he's going to lower rates. Yeah.

or raise them, there's no way he's going to say that anytime soon he's going to because there's way too many things that are up in the air. And that's exactly what he said. He said there's too much uncertainty. And then he did point to tariffs and said, you know, I think specifically the quote was,

Tariffs are going to raise prices. Someone's going to have to pay them. Some of us are going to end up in the consumer. We have to see how that goes. And I feel that there was this drumbeat leading up to it because a little bit of volatile data, like some of the housing data has gotten better. That's great. But then the weekly claims. And retail sales. And retail sales. Although if you looked at the control, it wasn't so bad. And most of the retail sales were lower because of energy, because oil prices and gas prices were down. So I think it was...

It was just a lot of hope. And I think the market was trying to tell the Fed what to do. And Powell has been very like, I don't care. I don't care about any of that noise outside. And I was a little bit, I think also like the op-ed from, you know, it was just, it's from someone who wants the job at Fed. Like, I just think that's,

Think again it was just less like train of the market trying to tell the Fed what to do and they they should know yeah I mean the fact that the market was unchanged the fact that the market has been rallying into it the fact that the market rallied S&P 25% for two years when you know Fed funds rates started out in you know two years ago at five and a half percent last year it ended at four and a half percent you know the the markets have not minded for the most part about

higher fed funds rates, even though we've seen a 10 year yield that's basically been flat here around four, four ish or something like that. - Yeah, I don't think it can get really lower from here. - Yeah, yeah. Well, unless you start seeing a more dovish tone, right? And so the one thing, all right, so--

I think we had to separate the 10 year from like the two year and the short term curve. Yeah. But so let's think about this for a second, right? So you just mentioned Waller. He's writing this op ed. He's basically saying the Fed should cut by 100 basis points. He's speaking to the president like in for all intents and purposes, the audience. He used one data point that's very volatile by the way. Yeah, but I mean, listen, going back to your point, there's a lot of folks, investors who want to see cuts. Fed Chair Powell, I think, worries that inflation is going higher because of the trade and because of geopolitics.

He also lowered GDP outlook, too. So talk about that is like, OK, worried about inflation, lowering growth estimates. Increase unemployment by a touch. That's right. It speaks to stagflation. Yeah. I mean, they're worried about all the things that like I'm sitting here and watching and worrying about. And I don't I think they're willing to look through any sort of near term benefit that, you know, maybe had come from. Because if you look at it like CPI is better because of energy and oil. And now it's.

the issues that we're having in the Middle East and the conflict there is putting pressure on that again. So I just think like he's just a patient guy. I do think in hindsight, he should have kept cutting a little more when things were improving.

before we had all this other stuff but now I just if I were him I would I would think about this he did that 50 basis point cut in September at the time they talked about like the jobs market they talked about unemployment um possibly you know moving higher and that worried them a little bit I don't think they were so bullish as far as growth was concerned this is late last year and now here we are to your point like we're in the middle of a bunch of stuff you know like a potential war

or protracted war with Iran, and there's a whole bunch of implications as it relates to oil. We obviously have a protracted trade war that could kind of get worse than I think we're looking at this right now. A lot of people feel pretty comfortable about where we are. I want to speak to a little bit about expectations for S&P earnings, because that's how we will think about all of this as it relates to the markets.

Where are you right now coming into the year? I think the expectations or consensus was for 13.5% year-over-year earnings growth. That's come down a bit. Your numbers are well below that. Let's talk about it.

Yeah. So they were 13%, like you said, they've dropped to around 9%. And it happened in the first quarter for most of it. And then so that 13% for 2026 now is off a lower base, but hasn't really moved. I think when you look at it, so my view is that there's kind of a rule of thumb of every 1% drop in GDP, you have a 4% move in earnings growth.

And we don't know what the drop in GDP is going to be. I know we had a Q1 that wasn't so great, but a lot of that was like, I think just... Pull forward. I mean, it was just a lot of stuff, importing stuff in advance of tariffs. So that hurts GDP in the short term. But if that's true, then I think

probably it should drop a little bit more to like the 7, 8%. My view is 7% earnings growth for this year and for next year, more like around 9%. So for me, and I'm applying a generous multiple to that, right? So the multiple now is what, close to 22 times again. I was sort of applying that 21, 22 times

And then I got to 6,200 if I kind of look forward over the next 12 months, not just earnings for 2025. That's what my target has been for a little while. I moved it down from 6,500 at the start of the year. Which was kind of consensus, right? It was at the low end. If you remember, there was like some 7,000. I don't know what they've done with them since. But I was sort of on the low end of the range. And I know some people have moved down dramatically now.

There is a chance, though, because I think it's this kind of environment where you can't just be like, this is my one target. Like I think to be like, if this, then that. And my other if this, then that is if tariffs end up being

you know higher than say like 10 on average um and the places that count then i think it's it ends up being it should probably be a lower s p yeah like i think that's where i kind of see 5800. all right let's talk about rbc capital because they're kind of doing a lot of different math right here and but directionally you guys are in the same place and i'm only

bringing this up because I think that they have taken their S&P 500 earnings for this year down to $258. Consent's about $265, right? So to your point, at $265 with a $6,000 S&P, you're getting about 22.5 times, which is rich if you're just looking at fact sets data over the last 5 and 10 years. You know, it's

probably one or two turns. You know what I mean, Richard? Yeah, long-term 10-year, excluding that 2020 period, is 19 times for the S&P. Okay, so pretty rich. And so on 258, you're talking about a little over 23 times. So it doesn't leave a ton of room. If you have a growth scare, you're going to have the S&P, you know, it's

Is it going to go back to 4850 where we were in the first week of April? Probably not. But you could definitely see something that looks like 5600 or something like that. We were 5700 when the taco trade was really confirmed, like when Trump pushed out the China tariffs. And pretty quickly, we're going to be coming on that July 9th date, right? I know. So one of the things I think is interesting is you just said there's a lot of moving parts.

There's GDP, right? There's interest rates. There's obviously tariff rates are going to be really important. So, you know, yeah, well, the debt and deficit and what happens to spending with the tax bill, because the cuts are going to be retroactive. OK, as far as tax rates. But the spending is going to stay.

for a while, which is stimulative, right? So let's break that down for a second because I think the outlook is as clear as mud. And if you're thinking that, you know, tariff rates stay, let's say, above 10%, I mean, coming into the year, they were 2.5%. Yeah, I mean, it's going to hurt. I think it's going to hurt growth. And the question is, like, does it hurt inflation more than it hurts growth or vice versa, right? And I think, you know, I was on CNBC the other day and someone had said, we think the net

outcome is hurts growth more than it hurts inflation. But I think in the short term, it's inflation more than growth. Like, I think it just takes time to kind of work itself out. And then it stops being inflationary and just starts being almost deflationary in the long term. Because people pull away from buying. Exactly. Yeah. So it's and if you look back in history, the times that we had it, that was the case. But we haven't really had it in modern times. So I don't know if you can use that. Then you've got like, obviously, oil, right, where there's

The stuff that's happening in the Middle East now and the geopolitical tensions are impacting prices and moving them higher, which takes inflation higher, which should slow growth. But then you have, on the other side, OPEC is increasing supply. And there's an OPEC Plus meeting early. First, we get July. So I think...

I do think that there's been some good relationships established there, at least recently, it seems like that on the surface. So maybe those two things net each other out. Then you have the deficit. And like you said, I think you can end up being stimulated. You have the SLR thing that went into place earlier this week, right? Which increases the amount of

buying that a bank can do of treasuries. Right. The banks liked it. So like all the bank stocks, major, you know, money centers were up 2-3%. Wells Fargo outperformed because they've had a lot of curbs on them. A lot of the regional banks did better on that too. Yeah, but let me ask you this really quickly on that. Do you think that has something to do, this perception that there's a lack of buyers of U.S. treasuries right now? So you give the banks the opportunity to kind of participate more in that market? I think they need everyone they can, right? So like it's the same thing. And that's why I think like if you're thinking about this deficit too,

like there's a probably less buyers. You've seen the amount of central banks buying gold right ever since Russia, Ukraine happened. The amount of gold buying has increased by central banks versus treasuries where that's what it used to be. Right. And we were just our friend Peter Bookvar, my friend from Bleakly Advisors. He had a note out this morning in the book report suggesting that last month the Canadians

who obviously are not particularly happy with the United States or at least our White House right now, sold 13.5% of their U.S. Treasury holdings in one month. Now, Peter went on to say it could be some odd adjustment or this or whatever. But, you know, where other countries who have not done trade deals, which is like 98% of them that we put these tariffs on,

they have leverage. You know what I mean? So let's talk a little bit about that as far as that kind of sell America trade. Selling U.S. Treasuries, which is kind of keeping our yields at this 4.43% in the 10-year. And again, we could look at the curve. But also, we're selling dollars. We've had a bump in the dollar over the last week or so. How do you factor that in? Because, you know, the Chinese, the Japanese, the EU, these are all large holders of our treasuries. They have the ability to kind of threaten selling dollars and treasuries.

Yeah. I mean, China's not number one anymore. No, Japan is, I think, followed by the UK. Foreign governments own about a quarter of our treasuries, outstanding treasuries. And so I think if you're... One thing I think is like making me nervous out of all this, like I think some of it could be hearsay because at the end of the day, the dollar is still like...

- The reserve currency. - The clearing reserve currency. And it's not just treasuries, it's like all different kinds of deals. But if that changes, that's when I get nervous. But if you're looking, like typically the 10-year yield follows the dollar. And for the first time ever, like if you looked at the chart, it's just like broken. And that to me is saying something. And how do you interpret that? Like, I think it means that the yield might need to go higher, right? Like the market might be saying, a currency market might be saying like,

this dollar, you know, in order for us to value you more, you're going to have to pay more. And if you look, the amount of debt that we have, I mean, it's not slowing down. Our interest payments are 3% of GDP. But that's why, you know, the president wants this tax bill on his desk by July 4th. And we're not far away from that. And his whole party, like this is where the debate is. We know where the Dems are. They don't like it. They don't want to cut Medicaid. They don't want to cut a lot of this sort of stuff, but they don't have a say in this. And then you have these deficit hawks

you know, the Republican Party, they don't like what they see. They see a whole heck of a lot more spending. They see a couple trillion dollars thrown onto that debt over the next, you know, five, 10 years or something like that. So it'll be interesting to see how this plays out because, you know, this is not the sort of thing that he can just strong arm through a certain part of his, you know, caucus because we've seen this before, you know what I mean? And I don't know. So do you think there's going to be a back and forth as far as the tax thing?

I've been of the view, first Trump administration, they went after tax cuts. They got them. It gave a tailwind to the economy. It gave a tailwind to the markets. And then they dealt with trade. So I'm just curious, like, does this both of these things have the potential to really mire the economic agenda of the president? Yes, for sure. I think the thing that he had. Right. So there's a three legged stool they always talked about. Right. Which is like cutting taxes. It's deregulation. And then it's.

for tariffs, right? So the other two things, it's cutting taxes and deregulation. I think the cutting taxes is going to be really, really hard to do. First, corporate taxes are pretty low, especially versus around the world. We're kind of right in the middle of it. I think it's going to be hard to get them a lot lower. And then the things that they want to cut, like Doge didn't do very much. I mean, it's all just like little drops in the bucket. And I mean, I can get on a soapbox about this forever, but

We need to deal with Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid. I know the Senate cut Medicare more when they sent it back, the bill back, right, to the House. And that all feels awful because, you know, some of the assessments have been that, like, the least economically, you know, well-endowed person gets the short end of the stick. But I think there's, like, a world in which we can reimagine it and spend less because otherwise I think we're going to be stuck with –

Higher rates like I no matter what we do on the 10-year, right? Yeah the two-year the Fed can control it like there's lots of things you can do but on the 10-year side like I'm I just I think that's and that has implications for valuations. It has implications for Mortgage rates. It has implications for corporate borrowing. Yeah And and that's why I get nervous about the economy like longer-term. Do I think it's all gonna break today? No, I think

I think they'll figure out a way and they'll promise cuts 10 years from now that never materialize. Yeah. No, and I agree. I mean, it literally goes, think about it this way, like administration, administration, you have a Republican, you have a Democrat, you have a Republican. At the end of the day, no one really wants to be on the line for kind of fixing those kind of long-term things that have been a big part of like our deficit spending, if you will.

No, I get all that. All right, let's kind of get to just geopolitics. What is your general sense? You've been in the markets for a while. You've been a strategist for a while. You've seen some of these dust-ups here and there. Generally, do you smooth them out? Do you kind of look at a period like right now where there's all this uncertainty? Are we going to get involved with Iran? Are we not? It's almost impossible to know what those unknown unknowns are and what that means for the markets and the economy and all that.

oil and all that sort of stuff. So generally, do you look at this and say, all right, the president gave us two weeks that in within that period, he might decide what we're going to do or not. Does the market doesn't seem to mind the market just opened? This is Friday morning, we have an S&P that's up 40 basis points, you know, people don't care, you know what I mean? Like if we start dropping bombs, you know, like these, these bunker busters or whatever, does the market just go back and make new highs?

Yeah. I mean, like, so if you go back in history, it matters for a three to six month period and then it tends to stop mattering. So I think it's,

Out of the last 80 years, there's been 36 geopolitical dust-ups, like you said, or worse. And 35 of those times, it didn't matter. The one time it did, it was the Arab-Israeli war in the '70s. We had just gone off the gold standard. We didn't have as much oil as we do today ourselves. Like, there was a lot of other things at play. Zappled oranges, basically. You could try to draw comparisons, but it's not. I don't see it being the same.

So I think eventually like the market ignores it and goes back to earnings and what are earnings growth and in the environment that we're in. I think the hard part is that

can we continue to command such high valuations when uncertainty is higher than it's ever been? And I think the president really enjoys having uncertainty. Like, I think he likes having that control. So I think that's why, like, almost in a way, the market wants... I think the market biases towards hope this year. Like, hope... Like, I still think that the tariffs are going to be fine. Hope that the...

that rates are going to be lower, that the Fed is going to cut. Hope that this thing turns out to be nothing and it ends quickly. Not nothing from a human perspective. And that it all ends up being fine and the market can look through it. And I think in some ways that's right if you're like a long-term investor, but if you're kind of trading day to day,

I think this is a really hard market. Like, I think it's just chopping sideways and we may not be able to command the premiums that we. Well, that's the point. I mean, like, let's just do some math here. Right. So if S&P earnings, let's say they get down to like like low ish single digits or five percent, you know, something like that. A long term average is six.

Yeah. And we're trading at, let's say, 23 times, like, 4% EPS growth, right? And then you made this great point about 2026. You know, it's going to be, let's say, double digits, but off a lower base. And that's likely to come down, too, especially if we have higher tariffs and we have lower growth and we have a lot of uncertainty and, you know, all that sort of stuff. Then all of a sudden, you're looking at S&P. That's 23 times that you could say is very top-heavy. Some of the largest names, you know what I mean? And they're associated with AI, right?

they have better than expected growth relative to the rest of the market and they have much higher multiples so when you think about that are there some opportunities as you get away from mega cap tech yeah i mean i've for a while i've been like uh there's more to life than the mag seven that's like been my thing and i think we're in a stock picker's market which is why i'm like i don't know i don't know what's happening i don't know what's going to happen the macro is hard yeah the macro is way harder i think the macro used to be easier and stock picking was harder and that's why you just needed to buy

index funds and I think it's switched now because you have like if you one other stat that I love to pull up is that the Fed did a study and from 1989 to 2019 42% of corporate profits came from lower taxes and lower interest rates and so if you don't have those two things like now it's like what is company management doing like what is AI doing AI will be deflationary longer term but I think like there's this

I just think like now you'll get paid to focus on individual names. So by the way, that's a really interesting point because if you look at the Mag 7, which has driven a lot of the performance over the last, call it two and a half years in the S&P 500, it's obviously been a really huge contribution

contributor to S&P 500 earnings, those companies who have huge cash balances, they're doing okay with Fed funds at 4.5%. And they actually have all of the capability to kind of negotiate however they do this sort of stuff, lower tax rates. So for them, this has actually been a really good sweet spot. It's also given them the opportunity to spend tens of billions on CapEx as it relates to

Right. You know, even though, because they don't have a hard time borrowing. No. Or they don't need to. They don't even really need to. Yeah. So, all right. So, Max 7, you don't really care. I mean, I think there'll be, like, I think there'll be times to own that. I don't mean you don't care. There's opportunities away from Max 7. And I, look, year to date, they're down. Yeah. Right? And then the other 493 are up. Yeah. Not a huge amount, but some, right? So, that's why I say there's, like, other opportunities.

Yeah, the S&P is up about 2%. The NASDAQ is up like a little more than 4% right now. You know, it's interesting in the MAG-7, four of those seven are down on the year. Apple and Tesla are down about 20%. And then you have Amazon and Google down. Google is down like 8% and Amazon is down a few percent. So there has to be some other things that are working. Semis have come back. And that's a really important one. Semis have come back.

I think like there's also, I mean, owning international this year, right? Like relative to the S&P, it just has been doing better. Like if you look at, I think, you know, year to date, like I've got Euro stocks at D, right? Like they're up over 20%. Right. But you also have this dollar weakness. I mean, this is something like unhedged, you know what I mean, is a bit of a problem.

right? Right. I mean, but that's, I'm saying is like, you also didn't need to care about any other country, like investing outside the US for a long time. So what does that say to you? Because we launched this trade war coming at our allies first. So our biggest trading partners are Canada, Mexico, EU, all of their stock markets have

massively outperformed ours and they have not come to the table to do a deal for all intents and purposes. The EU is talking a little bit. I think Japan really wants it. Yeah, Japan wants it. So, so I just think that's interesting because you keep hearing about there's other places to be other than the U S um, and the mag seven. And I think at least for the first half of the year that is playing out a little bit. When you think about your user, um,

the Robinhood user. And, you know, one of the things and Guy and I've talked about this a couple of times on the pod when we were down at the the Hood Summit late last year, we met dozens of your more active, let's say, traders, if you will. But then there was also we were surprised at how many folks were really investors not focused on the day to day. So it was a really interesting for us to see a very wide range of user there. And we were really also

impressed at the level of sophistication that a lot of them have and I know that options has been a big Driver but also crypto on your platform and there seemed to be a lot of diversification which kind of speaks to the way you're managing Portfolios a little bit So what is have there been a move away by your users from this obsession with mag 7 that most of the market participants have had over the last few years? Yes for sure like I've

So there's two things that you always see. One is that they hold core positions, and that still includes Mag7. And that might just be like, they've made so much money over the years, like why are they going to go take the tax bill this year? But whenever they go down, they tend to add a little more. And whenever they go up a lot, they tend to trim it. So for example, like you saw Tesla as an opportunity when it sold off, right? When Trump and Elon got into an argument, and then they made up, and then the stock

So you saw them buying into that and then selling into that. So the last week, Tesla and Palantir were the place that got trimmed. And then Apple got bought because it's also been kind of not flourishing. But then you've seen in moments like when we had a couple of different names report earnings in the tech space, in the more software tech space, they had good earnings, but

This kind of market has been like, if you have one tiny little flaw, you get sold off. And so some of these companies they were buying into, looking for those opportunities. What about IPOs? There's been a lot of talk about the IPO market coming back. Two of the biggest ones that we've had this year, first one was CoreWeave, very much in the sort of, you know, generative AI trade, their data center company. And, you know, Microsoft's a huge customer of theirs. And

That stock went public at $38. I think right now it's trading at $175. That's just in a few months. It's got an $80 billion market cap, which is truly astounding. It's trading at crazy valuation levels. They have a ton of debt. They've already raised debt since they went public. And then you have this circle, which is a crypto exchange. And that thing has been off to the races. This kind of went public just recently.

a couple weeks ago. When I look at these two names, it tells me something. It tells me that investors or traders, they want new issues. They want new stories. They want different ways or new ways to express certain views, and they're not particularly...

I don't know, that picky about valuation. And these stocks have literally become meme stocks just like that. What are you hearing? What are you seeing from your users as it relates to new issues? Because there's a bunch that want to come out this year and they're just waiting for a more stable market environment, I guess. I think, I mean, our users definitely want IPOs. Like we offer them. And those two names that you mentioned, we did offer to our customers in advance. And some people were able to get allocations online.

I think part of it is like, and when you say like they want new issues, they want new ways to express views. I think that's very right. And I, you know, Jamie Dimon always talks about this, but like the amount of stocks that are, you know, companies that are public versus not, like because it's become so onerous to be public, but like more stay private. And so I think there's two things that we definitely get demand for. One is IPOs.

And the second is, are we, you know, is there a way for people to get easy liquid access to pre-IPO companies using things like tokenization? Right. And it's something that like our CEO has talked about a lot and, you know, put out an op-ed about it and being able to not necessarily have, you know, the accredited investor or a qualified purchaser type of, you know,

assets to be able to access them. So I think that's, it's been certainly a high demand, but I, again, on my soapbox, I really think we need to, in this part of like deregulation and a focus on that, whenever that comes, like I would love to see an ability for people to

maybe not just get access to PO, but also like let's encourage companies to go public again. Like let's not make it like as hard and not worth it. Well, you know, it's fascinating. So when Google went public 20 years ago or it was 2004, it was August, the valuation was 23 billion dollars.

It closed that day at a $27 billion. We just talked about Corweave that has an $80 billion market cap. It's pretty astounding if you think about it. So the fact that some of these companies have just waited as long as they have, and a lot of it was market conditions, except that the market went up

25% a year for the last two years. So the fact, I don't know what they're waiting for. And I was saying this the last two years, if you can't bring an IPO after a bear market, after you have these sorts of years, when are you going to do it? But I think like if there's so much, there is also a lot of dry powder out there still in the private equity markets. Like if you, private credit, right? Like private equity is blown up and then you have private credit that's blown up even more. And then you have like,

all this money from wealthy investors that are ready to just continue to fund you if you don't have as many like things you have to do. Right. You know, I think that's...

I want to come back to Robin Hood and how you guys are positioning yourself. You talked about Vlad in this op-ed that he wrote, but let's do that at the very end. So I just kind of want to put a button in the S&P 500. So you have a target of 6,200. The S&P is trading essentially at 6,000 right now.

um you know we're going into the second half of the year i think a lot of folks are just exhausted um i think that you know that period from the highs in in february i think it was 19th to lows in early april which created an opportunity all right so so yeah and and i kept on reading these things about retail investors they didn't get shaken out and they were buying the way down so speak to that they were i mean they were buying on the way down and they were doing it uh much more in just broad market

Just like we talked about, like now, right now is a better time, I think, to be a stock picker and kind of look for your opportunities. But in moments like that, it becomes a time just to get in the market. And so we saw on average, our volumes are like 20% of notional volume for ETFs, for example.

during that time period it was 40%. Wow. Because people were just like, I just need to get in. So they got broad market exposure rather than taking the idiosyncratic risk of buying a stock. A lot of the mag seven were down 30, 35%. I know. Somewhere we're down more. But 40% of the S&P is the max

- Seven, right? So we're the top 10. So I think you just get like, you get that immediate access. - Well, all right, that's a great point. And the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100, you get 50% of that. My view has always been, whether it was the bear market in 2022, I was of the belief that the leaders and the bull market into any bear market, you'll hear this all the time, that leadership changes on the way out.

It was impossible because of the weightings, right? And so the QQQ, if you want exposure to the generative AI trade or the Mag7 or whatever, that's the way to do it. And then maybe you have a few Palantirs in the other, you know what I mean? Does that make some sense? I think that's what they do. Like, yes, they do absolutely jump in when the markets go down and then after that pick their spots. And I think like, you know, the other thing about AI that I think is most interesting is that like, I think we're starting to come out of like,

the chip makers being the only place to play it. I think like power generation, like I want like does an Exxon Mobil or something like that end up being like an AI play, right? Like I think that's where that's most exciting to me. And if you look at CapEx, which I've done like a deep dive on CapEx, you have, you know, one thing we saw is that like earnings expectations we said came down from like 12% or 13% to 9%. But

for the last few years, sales growth has been lower than CapEx growth, right? And this year looked like the first year it was like kind of maybe going to be neutral and then it flipped. And now it's, again, that difference is negative, meaning that there's expectation of more CapEx growth. And it's

if you look through the names of who's increasing their capex it's all the large tech companies that need power and then you have the deals that get in there they're all doing the nuclear deals and you know i keep reading articles there's one in the ft this morning about the power grid and well you know the capex build out the data center build out do they have power to do these these massive data centers that's going to be their biggest hindrance and it takes

years to create like nuclear power plants. Yeah, they're talking 2030 or 2031 when a lot of that stuff comes online. All right, so 6200, we're halfway through the year, your customers took advantage of the downward volatility back half of the year. Let's assume that things stay right here. Let's assume that, you know, they get taxed, the trade

stuff, tariffs stay right here. Let's say we're going to have a little bit of a slower growth sort of thing. Let's say the geopolitical stuff doesn't get that much worse. Do you find yourself if we see a slight reacceleration in earnings growth for a whole host of reasons? Because let's say, you know, we start to price in more than expected rate cuts.

Do you see yourself, do you see the market moving to new highs and maybe maintaining it? Yeah, for sure. And that's why in our portfolios, we took off some of the defensive positioning. We have this mix of low vol and growth names, but then I was looking at it thinking, there's a world in which cyclical stuff comes back. There's a world in which everything turns out to be okay. Yeah.

rates actually get to come down. And that's where I'm like, I think you need to be prepared for that, even if you're not going into it yet. And that's why I say like,

you know, that's maybe when you play like mid cap space. Yeah. All right. So here I'm just going to read through some of the sectors that are down, at least through the lens of ETFs. And so XLV, which is pharma down in the year, IBB, which is biotech down in the year, IYT, which is transports down on the year, consumer discretionary down in the year, retail down in the year, XBI goes back to that's biotech.

And so then when you see the outperformers, metals and mining, that's up 17.5% in the year. Industrials are up 8.5% in the year. And I'm like, oh, utilities, there's your power trade up 7%. Staples, defensive, as along with utilities, also up on the year. Energy up on the year, the XLE, obviously crude, crude USO. So,

it is interesting where you're seeing strength and where you're seeing weakness. And it still speaks to a consumer that's dealing with inflation, right? It's dealing with rates. You know, it's dealing with what could be higher energy prices and the like.

a labor market that is fine for now, but you have started to see an increase in weekly claims. I'm not putting a lot of weight into it, but it's something you got to watch. Like I think if we get to four and a half percent on unemployment, like that's- Well, Microsoft today-

They were cutting more jobs. 6,000 more. They'd already cut, let's say, 10,000 UPS, I want to say, a couple weeks ago. That's why I think AI ends up being deflationary. Right. So the 20,000 jobs, we heard what Andrew Jazzy said, Amazon CEO. You're fine for now. Yes. And then Procter cut 7,000 jobs. Intel cut 10,000 jobs. It's kind of what we saw in 2022, but for different reasons. Right. Totally different reasons. Yeah.

So you think deflationary, you think productivity goes up, you think that AI ends up being deflationary? Yes. Although, you know, we've been using AI internally at Robinhood for a while now. And I think...

You know, it's not perfect yet. It's certainly like, and I don't know, you know, who knows. Customer service, coding, that sort of stuff. Yeah, that's where we're using it, right? Like our engineers are like, oh, it's so fast to do a unit test. It used to take me hours. It's 10 minutes now when we're thinking about new code. I think we're, and we're using in customer service and there can be some small flaws whenever you give it new information, but it eventually like figures it out.

I think where we've been starting also to use it, and we talked about this in March when we did our launch for Robinhood Strategies is alongside that we have something called Cortex, which will actually like, you go into a particular stock and it gives you the why behind the what happened.

right there. And we're starting to, we want to apply more and more of that. - And that's all quantitative, basically. - It's basically just pulling in news articles and things like that and just saying like, you know, this is what happened and why. And then if you want to click into it, you get more detail, but you can just get like the TLDR. And we want to apply more stuff like that to help our customer base like be faster about their analysis.

It's certainly not perfect yet. - Right, of course. All right, so that's stuff that customers can use, analytics and the like for themselves to kind of make their own trading investment decisions. But then you've also, you mentioned a couple times, you've kind of launched an asset management business. And that's happened here in 2025? - Yeah, March 27. - And it's only accessible to Robinhood customers? - Yes. - Okay, all right. And you're managing that, you're the CIO. - Yes, our team and I are managing it.

We have over $300 million in AUM already. It's been a couple of months. The portfolios are... So this kind of goes along with my view that this is no longer a market that you just want to own broad-based indices. So we actually provide...

stock and ETF, like the portfolios are stocks and ETFs mixed together, not just ETFs like a lot of other places that do this. We actively allocate the dollars. We're not trading it every day, but we're definitely like, especially in this environment, watching the market closely. Is there crypto in there or by any chance? Not right now. We're working on adding some other asset classes down the road. And we also want to add something that like gives you a snapshot of your portfolio. The other thing that we do that I'm

probably most proud of is that we leave messages for you in app as if you're advisor. So like markets moved, here's what happened. We just made a change. Here's why we made this change. Like kind of giving you, and it's right there, like,

under your kind of sparkline chart, like leaving a message for you and we record them. So we talk to you. Oh, that's pretty cool. So what I'm getting here, and you just mentioned Vlad in this op-ed that he wrote, you just added, you know, portfolios, asset management, and you're using technology to really kind of make your customer feel like they're at least involved in the process, that sort of thing. We give you ways to customize the portfolio. Yeah, so you, oh, go ahead. I was going to say, and the fee is,

This is the thing that I know Vlad was also really excited about is that our fee actually gets capped out. So for gold members, any dollar above $100,000 is 0%. Oh, wow. Okay. Yeah, we want to be as much as we can in terms of guiding people on their financial journey. Right. And then obviously crypto and options are a big part of kind of what you're more active

uh customers are using so i just think that's really interesting because we haven't seen too many and i know that everyone was calling you a fintech five years ago that sort of thing and now it looks like a proper financial institution with lots of different touch points for your customers and we've seen this again and again you know when you have a service which is just a trading app on your phone and then you have this user base that is attracted to it maybe they're like you know millennials in this and whatever

But as they start growing well, as they start going higher up the ladder in their own jobs, they need more things. You don't want them to leave because you don't have the products and services for them. I mean, the average age of our customer base was, you know, several years ago was below 30, right? And now it's 35. And that's...

prime time for you're right in the middle of your career. You're too busy to think about something. So maybe you want to give some money to somebody else to worry about. You need some help in planning. You need some help in thinking about like your holistic and how can we do it in a way that like absolutely leverages technology to the hilt to keep the cost super low. And that's really like what our focuses

been across right and and that sort of nimbleness is the sort of thing that makes you increasingly competitive to some of these large incumbent financial institutions they're going to be the last ones to kind of adopt this technology yeah i mean especially like if you think about how our fee is right for robinhood strategies like

the more you invest, the more you pay and on a dollar basis. And we were like, well, why does it have to be like that? Right. Well, you're getting leverage out of those technology investments also, and you're able to pass it through to the customer. And I think that demonstrates in your ability to kind of offer those interest rates to savers and the like here. So, all right, listen, we covered a lot of ground.

Listen, I find obviously your market insights really interesting. And, you know, you have a very different job than a lot of other strategists because you have access to data about a user base or an investor that is driving a lot of the activity in the markets right now.

right and i think that's really interesting and obviously the platform that you guys have we see our customers are really smart we're excited to help them no i mean we're going to be back at the hood summit again um so we're really excited about that so we'll do a bunch of stuff down there together like we did last year so steph guild really appreciate you being here thank you thanks