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Move Over Mag7: Introducing The Fateful 8

2024/12/16
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On The Tape

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C
Caitlin Malin
D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员,常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
D
Danny Moses
L
Liz Thomas
R
Ron Biscardi
Topics
Liz Thomas: 十年期国债收益率达到4.5%是值得关注的关键点,届时股市将出现波动。美元走强与收益率上升同步,这与全球其他地区令人失望的经济数据有关。市场预期美联储将在本周降息25个基点,这并非意外。 Danny Moses: 相对于全球其他地区,美国经济仍然强劲,这导致资金流入美国,美元走强。如果十年期国债收益率超过4.5%并向5%靠拢,美国股市将出现更多波动。美联储需要在应对特朗普潜在的通胀政策(例如关税和驱逐出境)与保持政治中立之间取得平衡。 Dan Nathan: 小型企业信心高涨,这与可能加剧的关税政策形成对比。罗素2000指数(小型股指数)表现落后于标普500指数和纳斯达克指数,这与小型企业乐观情绪形成对比。由于少数几只股票的市场份额过大(“致命的八大”),市场并未如预期般多元化。市场集中度过高,这使得市场对各种潜在环境的应对能力不足。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is the 4.5% yield level on the 10-year Treasury important for the equity market?

The 4.5% yiear Treasury eld level on the 10-yis important because it often triggers volatility in the equity market. Equities start to get nervous when yields rise to this level, and we've seen this pattern in the past when yields hovered around 4.5%.

Why is the Fed expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their upcoming meeting?

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to economic growth and inflation expectations. Despite some dissenters, the market has a 97% probability baked in for this cut, and the Fed will likely justify it as a way to maintain economic health.

Why are small businesses optimistic despite the potential for increased tariffs?

Small businesses are optimistic because they are assuming a pro-business environment in 2025. They believe that even if tariffs increase, the overall positive business climate and strong U.S. consumer base will insulate them from negative impacts.

Why is the Russell 2000 underperforming the S&P 500 and NASDAQ?

The Russell 2000 is underperforming because of the rising yields and the Fed's less accommodative stance. Small caps are more sensitive to interest rates and Fed expectations, which are not as favorable as they were initially anticipated.

Why is the healthcare sector expected to outperform in 2025 despite negative sentiment?

The healthcare sector is expected to outperform in 2025 because of strong earnings growth projections. Despite negative sentiment due to political factors, healthcare stocks have the potential to surprise investors with better-than-expected results and fundamental strength.

Why might the energy sector face challenges in 2025?

The energy sector might face challenges in 2025 due to the proposed increase in drilling, which could lead to lower energy prices and reduced profitability for companies. Additionally, the sector is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, and increased U.S. production could impact global energy prices.

Why is the incoming administration's policy on tariffs and immigration significant for the U.S. economy and markets?

The incoming administration's policies on tariffs and immigration are significant because they could have inflationary effects. Tariffs could increase costs for businesses, and mass deportations could disrupt the labor market. The Fed will need to navigate these factors carefully to avoid adverse economic outcomes.

Why is iConnections' recent conference in Singapore noteworthy for the alternative investment industry?

iConnections' recent conference in Singapore is noteworthy because it doubled in size from the previous year, with 230 fund managers and a similar number of allocators holding over 3,000 meetings. This growth underscores the platform's role in connecting investors and managers, and highlights the increasing interest in alternative strategies.

Why is iConnections evolving from a tech company to the world's largest cap intro platform?

iConnections evolved from a tech company to the world's largest cap intro platform due to the need for electronic connections during the pandemic. The company built a robust software platform that facilitates one-on-one meetings and other investment processes, making it a dominant force in the alternative investment industry.

Why is the Global Alts Conference in Miami expected to be highly transactional?

The Global Alts Conference in Miami is expected to be highly transactional because it focuses on one-on-one meetings between fund managers and allocators. Attendees come with pre-arranged schedules, ensuring productive and value-add conversations. The event is designed to streamline the fundraising process and facilitate a large number of meaningful meetings.

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan is joined by Danny Moses and Liz Thomas to break down the latest developments in financial markets. Key topics included the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, recent earnings, and market expectations. The gang highlighted China's expected stimulus, the impact of rising yields, and the potential for volatility in equities. The team also examined the performance of sectors like healthcare and energy, the challenges faced by small businesses, and notable earnings reports from Nike, FedEx, and Lennar.

After the break: Ron Biscardi, CEO, and Kaitlin Malin, COO of iConnections), join 'On the Tape' to discuss their recent conference in Singapore, where attendance doubled from the previous year with 230 fund managers and a similar number of allocators holding over 3,000 meetings. They dive into iConnections' evolution from a tech company to the world's largest cap intro platform during the pandemic, emphasizing their tech-driven solutions like the roadshow module and investor portal. Upcoming events in Miami and potential expansions into Europe and Africa are mentioned. The conversation also covers the partnerships and success stories from attendees, with notable figures like Howard Marks and Steve Cohen participating in their events.

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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