The 4.5% yiear Treasury eld level on the 10-yis important because it often triggers volatility in the equity market. Equities start to get nervous when yields rise to this level, and we've seen this pattern in the past when yields hovered around 4.5%.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to economic growth and inflation expectations. Despite some dissenters, the market has a 97% probability baked in for this cut, and the Fed will likely justify it as a way to maintain economic health.
Small businesses are optimistic because they are assuming a pro-business environment in 2025. They believe that even if tariffs increase, the overall positive business climate and strong U.S. consumer base will insulate them from negative impacts.
The Russell 2000 is underperforming because of the rising yields and the Fed's less accommodative stance. Small caps are more sensitive to interest rates and Fed expectations, which are not as favorable as they were initially anticipated.
The healthcare sector is expected to outperform in 2025 because of strong earnings growth projections. Despite negative sentiment due to political factors, healthcare stocks have the potential to surprise investors with better-than-expected results and fundamental strength.
The energy sector might face challenges in 2025 due to the proposed increase in drilling, which could lead to lower energy prices and reduced profitability for companies. Additionally, the sector is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, and increased U.S. production could impact global energy prices.
The incoming administration's policies on tariffs and immigration are significant because they could have inflationary effects. Tariffs could increase costs for businesses, and mass deportations could disrupt the labor market. The Fed will need to navigate these factors carefully to avoid adverse economic outcomes.
iConnections' recent conference in Singapore is noteworthy because it doubled in size from the previous year, with 230 fund managers and a similar number of allocators holding over 3,000 meetings. This growth underscores the platform's role in connecting investors and managers, and highlights the increasing interest in alternative strategies.
iConnections evolved from a tech company to the world's largest cap intro platform due to the need for electronic connections during the pandemic. The company built a robust software platform that facilitates one-on-one meetings and other investment processes, making it a dominant force in the alternative investment industry.
The Global Alts Conference in Miami is expected to be highly transactional because it focuses on one-on-one meetings between fund managers and allocators. Attendees come with pre-arranged schedules, ensuring productive and value-add conversations. The event is designed to streamline the fundraising process and facilitate a large number of meaningful meetings.
Dan Nathan is joined by Danny Moses and Liz Thomas to break down the latest developments in financial markets. Key topics included the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, recent earnings, and market expectations. The gang highlighted China's expected stimulus, the impact of rising yields, and the potential for volatility in equities. The team also examined the performance of sectors like healthcare and energy, the challenges faced by small businesses, and notable earnings reports from Nike, FedEx, and Lennar.
After the break: Ron Biscardi, CEO, and Kaitlin Malin, COO of iConnections), join 'On the Tape' to discuss their recent conference in Singapore, where attendance doubled from the previous year with 230 fund managers and a similar number of allocators holding over 3,000 meetings. They dive into iConnections' evolution from a tech company to the world's largest cap intro platform during the pandemic, emphasizing their tech-driven solutions like the roadshow module and investor portal. Upcoming events in Miami and potential expansions into Europe and Africa are mentioned. The conversation also covers the partnerships and success stories from attendees, with notable figures like Howard Marks and Steve Cohen participating in their events.
Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe)
—
About the Show:
On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.
—
Check out our show notes here)
See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape).
—
Shoot us an email at [email protected]) with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod) on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia) on Threads
—
We’re on social:
Follow @GuyAdami) on Twitter
Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34) on Twitter
Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat) on Twitter
Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia)
Subscribe to our YouTube) page
The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.
Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.
Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.