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cover of episode New Rules for an Old School Fundamentalist with David Rosenberg

New Rules for an Old School Fundamentalist with David Rosenberg

2025/6/25
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David Rosenberg: 我认为当前股市受情绪和动量驱动，与基本面脱节。分析师对盈利的修正一直在下降，表明市场并非追逐盈利增长。我认为标普500指数可能在6000点左右见顶，市场可能形成经典的顶部形态。我建议投资者清理投资组合中的不必要风险，不要盲目购买指数，而是选择自己最有信心的投资理念。我认为特朗普总统在以色列问题上取得重大胜利，这将为他在国会山积累大量政治资本，有利于税收法案的通过。但我认为特朗普的行为难以预测，他可能会改变主意，推迟实施互惠关税。我看到房地产市场出现了显著的解冻，越来越多的房主正在进行再融资，并面临利率冲击。房屋供应量增加，导致房价下跌。我认为房地产市场是家庭资产负债表上最重要的部分，房价下跌会对消费决策产生影响。我认为劳动力市场正在软化，工资将会减速。辞职率、招聘率和职位空缺率都在下降，表明劳动力市场正在出现裂痕。我认为美联储在描述经济状况时非常不诚实，他们降低了今明两年的经济增长预测，并表示衰退的几率是50%。我认为没有哪种资产类别的定价反映了50%的衰退几率。我认为股票市场告诉你，如果商业周期仍然重要，那么就不会发生衰退。但当股票风险溢价为零时，股票市场告诉你，标普500指数与国债一样没有风险。我认为购买债券就像购买火灾保险或汽车保险，它是投资组合中的压舱石。我认为下一场危机将是养老基金危机。

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David Rosenberg discusses the recent market rally, highlighting its sentiment and momentum-driven nature rather than being based on fundamentals. He points out that analyst earnings revisions have been declining and expresses concerns about a potential topping formation around the 6,000 level of the S&P 500. He emphasizes the emotional nature of the market and the loss of discipline and diligence among investors during rallies.
  • Market moves are sentiment and momentum-driven, not fundamentally driven
  • Analyst earnings revisions are declining
  • Potential topping formation around S&P 500 6,000 level
  • Market is emotionally based, leading to loss of discipline and diligence

Shownotes Transcript

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan host economist David Rosenberg) of Rosenberg Research) on the RiskReversal podcast to discuss the state of the market, economic conditions, and geopolitical factors. Rosenberg outlines the volatility seen in the S&P 500, emphasizing that recent market moves are sentiment and momentum-driven rather than based on fundamentals. He highlights concerns about a potential topping formation in the market and discusses the impact of tariff policies, the labor market, the housing market, and global geopolitical tensions, particularly around Israel and Iran. Rosenberg also shares his views on inflation, interest rates, and the potential for recession, suggesting that the economy may already be contracting. The discussion concludes with a focus on risks in the private equity and debt markets and the potential for pension funds to be the center of the next financial crisis. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMedia)Instagram: @riskreversalmedia)Twitter: @RiskReversal)LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media)