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Oh The Humanity!

2025/1/17
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On The Tape

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D
Danny Moses
G
Guy Adami
经验丰富的华尔街交易员和金融分析师,知名媒体人物。
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Guy Adami: 我认为市场对大选后的乐观情绪反应过度,随后又回吐了涨幅。这可能与减税政策的实际效果以及市场对关税的担忧有关。但我仍然认为10年期国债收益率将在短期内达到5%,甚至可能在超级碗之前。这将对股市产生重大影响。 此外,当前市场估值过高,被动投资的资金流入推迟了不可避免的回调。市场对摩根大通和花旗银行的估值存在差异,摩根大通的溢价过高,这可能忽略了潜在的信贷风险。银行的盈利报告可能无法全面反映信贷领域的真实经济状况。 近期市场回调都是短期事件,市场对回调的容忍度越来越高,但我担心这种容忍度最终会消失。黄金价格在当前环境下表现良好,这可能与避险情绪有关。比特币的价格可能受到利率和政府政策的影响。 我认为债券市场将是未来市场变化的催化剂,美联储可以通过多种政策工具来应对债券市场风险。黄金矿业公司股价表现落后于黄金价格,这可能是由于公司运营或其他因素造成的。 塔吉特公司股价下跌反映了零售业的困境,这与沃尔玛的竞争以及疫情后的消费模式变化有关。空头机构兴登堡研究公司决定关闭,这反映了当前市场环境对做空投资的挑战。 Danny Moses: 我认为市场对减税的乐观预期被现实情况所取代,债券收益率是影响股市,特别是小型股的重要因素。自2007-08年以来,政府干预债券市场,导致经济没有真正经受考验,高利率环境下的经济增长和利率之间的平衡难以把握。 美联储的政策、特斯拉的财报以及马斯克对美联储的言论,可能导致短期利率下降,长期利率上升。2025年大量国债到期,供需关系将推高利率。准确预测2025年的利率对于预测股市至关重要。 市场回调可能源于数学计算而非政府干预。积极型债券投资者目前表现优于被动型投资者,因为债券市场存在细微差别。当前市场环境下,关注时机和区分长期与短期趋势至关重要,但财富效应掩盖了基本面。 私募股权公司正在取代银行的部分业务,这使得金融体系的透明度降低。黄金作为避险资产,目前被低估,个人投资者对其持有量较低。比特币ETF的推出增加了市场波动性,投资者应谨慎对待山寨币和迷因币。 瑞士奢侈品牌历峰集团第四季度业绩强劲,这表明中国市场对奢侈品的需求仍然强劲。兴登堡研究公司关闭的原因可能与其与监管机构的关系以及做空投资的难度有关。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The S&P 500 initially rallied after the election but retraced to pre-election levels. This chapter explores the factors behind this round trip, including the impact of tax cuts, tariff scares, and bond yields.
  • Post-election S&P 500 rally reversed, returning to pre-election levels
  • Optimism about tax cuts and tariff reductions may have been overestimated
  • Bond yields are a key factor affecting stock performance

Shownotes Transcript

Guy Adami and Danny Moses explore the performance of the S&P 500 post-election. The duo analyze the implications of tax cuts, tariff scares, and bond yields, with Guy predicting ten-year yields will reach 5% by the Super Bowl. The conversation evaluates the impact of Federal Reserve policies, bond market activities, and Jerome Powell's tenure on financial markets. Danny delves into the challenges faced by the bond market since 2007-08 and the fine line between economic growth and higher interest rates. Shifting gears, they discuss the valuations of major banks and the disparity in market perceptions of JPMorgan and Citibank. The episode also examines the performance of luxury brands like Richemont amidst stark economic realities, and wraps up with insights on gold, Bitcoin, and the potential market implications of Hindenburg Research's closure. The hosts then preview upcoming football games, providing their thoughts and predictions for the weekend's matchups.

Further Reading

  • Buying These Bond Funds Might Just Be the ‘Dumbest Trade You Can Make’ (Barrons))

  • Cartier Owner Richemont’s Sales Beat Buoys Luxury Stocks (WSJ))

  • Short Seller Nate Anderson Says He’s Disbanding Hindenburg (Bloomberg))

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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