Stocks Within a Whisker of All-Time Highs
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All right, welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan, that's Guy Adami. We're recording this or re-recording this little opening here because I screwed up the first time. You're going to get to hear it, but I just wanted to make sure that you know that you're listening to the Risk Reversal Podcast.

on a Wednesday morning. Welcome to the Wednesday Morning Market Call. I'm Dan Nathan. That's Guy Adami. Guy, what do you think of that? The Morning Market Call. Remember back on the desk back in the day? You just called it the Morning Call. Isn't that what went on? That's what we did. We called it the Morning Call. Absolutely. And I think a lot of people have subsequently taken that squawk walk box course is the actual box we're on trading desks. Yeah.

Yeah. All these things have been ripped off from Wall Street parlance. No doubt. But remember, so you had your morning call, every desk, buy side, sell side. You all get together. You turn your chairs around. You talk about what was going to go on. And then you did have a squawk box to talk to, I guess, your brokers, right? Isn't that what they do? They call in and say, oh, we upgraded. People from the other offices. Yeah.

you know, people from London. Yeah. You remember when Westinghouse was a meme stock, you guys were trading that like crazy. The IBM, the Westinghouse, you know, you had a ball, you had a ball back then. Uh, and then you also had, you also had, you remember clock a ticket when you used to give a broker an order, you'd say clock a ticket. And that,

actually meant they would put a ticket in one of those little things and make a clock sound. I don't know if a clock sounds the thing. All right. We got three things to do today. We have a huge deal that came out of London. This is the China-U.S. trade deal. I'm sure we're going to get some acronym for that really, really quickly. It's going to be almost as impactful as the trade deal that was cut in Switzerland about a month ago, right? It was about as clear as mud what that was going to be. We have some inflation data today. And then, you know,

I don't know what else. What is that third thing we're going to do on the morning market call guy? Well, we're going to try to figure out why energy all of a sudden it's gotten back on its proverbial horse. You know, I don't think, you know, maybe it's a bit of a blip here. I'm not sure. But, you know, very quietly crude oil has gotten itself above $65 again, I think under the cover of darkness. And I don't know what to attribute that to. Um,

Let's see if it has an impact on some of these underlying equities. By the way, before I saw Danny Moses, I believe it was on Brian Sullivan's show. And in response to a question about what sectors looked interesting, Danny talked about energy and

All of a sudden, you know, I think more and more people are going to start to come around to the fact that despite the market, you know, being on its horse, all of a sudden energy is catching a bit of a bid here. So I think that's the third thing to watch. Yeah, we'll dig into that a little bit. And Peter Brookvar was actually on the On The Tape podcast with Danny last week, and they talked a lot about energy and they thought that was an area that,

can, uh, you know, get going. Well, let's talk. I mean, if we didn't have CPA, uh, CPI today, guy, I think we would have been kind of focused, um, on trade sort of stuff. And, you know, one of the things I thought is interesting, um, and Jim Kramer tends to be, um, you know, fairly bullish about these sorts of headlines. And I, I think I'm probably categorizing this, um, correctly, but he has like a morning note that goes out again, I think to CNB, um, CBC pro and, uh,

I thought this was interesting. He said, so they agreed on a framework after two days of talks in London. It sounds like we need something more than they do. The lack of leverage with the Chinese is ridiculous. All that trade disrupted and it was only going to come down to rare earth material. So I think that is an interesting commentary from the financial media. They want to believe, I think often.

some of these big events are going to kind of play out the way the markets are hoping them to do. And the markets, clearly, at least the stock market, was hoping that we'd have some form of agreement. That's why we are within, what, 2% of those all-time highs, up 24% from the April lows when, again, we had no idea why we were imposing those sorts of tariffs on China if we thought two months later, this is where we would be. Like, literally, we'd be where we were on April 1st. So,

Talk to me a little bit about that, because I think that sort of skepticism is likely to work its way through investor psyche over the next few days when we realize there was no there there. Yeah, this will upset you and it's not intended to. But I think at a certain level, you agree with this. You create a problem that doesn't exist. You say how difficult that problem is going to be to solve. And then you subsequently change.

fix the problem that never existed in the first place in a way that's really not all that meaningful, yet it creates this fanfare of excitement that people will then sort of champion in the form of the market. And I think that's what we're seeing here. You know, by the way, we talked about this, I think it was last week at 2.14 in the morning, President Trump put out a tweet

And it said something to the effect of, I like President Xi. I will always like President Xi. Then in all caps, he said, but he's very difficult to negotiate with. This is going to be very hard. And immediately when I saw it in the morning, I said to myself, well, this is a classic sort of under-promise, over-deliver. And it's going to be a week or two weeks from now, we're going to hear about this deal with President Xi, who was very difficult to negotiate with, but we were able to get it done.

And that's come to fruition. So it's not all that surprising to me. And I'm not trying to be a big shot in any way, but we actually talked about exactly this happening. I just don't know what it necessarily means for the market, because to your point, we're right back where we started from to a large extent. Yeah. By the way, you've been saying this since April. You know what I mean? That we're going to create a problem. You know what I mean? That we're going to come out and try to kind of bully not just our allies, but our adversaries. And then ultimately, we're likely to be

trying to take a victory lap for something, a problem that we created. You've been saying that fairly consistently. I just think that the thing that, the whole idea of the taco thing, you know what I mean? I think that became really clear and I think that's one of the reasons why the stock market on this headline is just unchanged. You know what I mean? There's nothing going on here and I think the market has kind of sniffed this out a little bit.

I think what's disturbing, though, Guy, is that you could say no harm, no foul. Here we are back to April 1st. But we came out of the gate so hot, right? And so if the result of Switzerland, the result of London, the result of our companies here, you know, having to put a whole host of things on hold, you know what I mean? The sorts of things that, you know, are important to our economy and hiring and CapEx and R&D and all that sort of stuff.

not too differently. Well, here we are that we're back to lifting some export controls on microchips so we can get rare earth materials. So if you think about why we are so adversarial with the Chinese, a big part of that

is just technology transfer. And I mean that to the regard, well, you know, we need them, they need us, and this is where we are. So I just think it's a bit frustrating because if we're just going to go back to exporting our most important technology to them, just so we can get rare earth materials, so that can go into some of our most important technology, it just doesn't make any sense. Where can we find some common ground? Is there a

this is where we found some common ground, then trying to get them to buy more of our shit, more of our consumptive sort of bullshit, not the most important stuff, then we have not succeeded whatsoever.

I mean, I guess the only good news in terms of the seats that we sit in, hopefully now we won't have to talk about this ad nauseum in terms of tariffs and trade deals and what have you. So, you know, to a certain extent, maybe, hopefully, this is sort of in the rearview mirror. We'll see. I mean, there's a lot to still play out and we can focus on, I think, some of the things that matter. And what I've said for a while, and listen, it's somewhat unfounded, not in terms of the market proven not to be true, but

There's underlying things to be concerned about, X trade deals and tariffs and those types of things that still exist. And what still exists are a consumer, in my opinion, that's definitely up against it. I just heard Paul Tudor Jones on Bloomberg a few minutes ago talking about the same things that he talked about a few weeks ago on CNBC. So we talk about whether or not his opinion has changed. Well,

20 or so minutes ago, it clearly did not change because he's still concerned about a hiccup in the bond market. And he brings up the fact that, you know, there we are up against it in terms of this debt problem that we created. And it's just an inevitability

to having an event in the bond market the same way Jamie Dimon talked about it. So now that all this other noise is out of the way, I think the market's going to sort of lock into things that it should have been locked into all along. Well, all right. So do you think that trade now takes a backseat? It's given the administration the opportunity to say, hey, look, we have a framework for

a deal and now let's focus on what's going on here domestically I wonder if they're going to start saying the economy's strong all that sort of stuff because it wasn't long ago where they were blaming the potential for a weak economy on the prior administration right and so if you remember the prior administration the economy was running pretty good we had unemployment at 4.2 percent we had GDP close to three percent right like there was a whole host of things that were going we had this

massive, you know, boom, CapEx boom from some of our largest tech companies. We had a chips act that was encouraging some of our domestic chip, you know, producers to reshore, you know, manufacturing and stuff. There were a lot of decent things going on. And then we just sort of had this disruption for the hell of it. And just the last thing on the trade before we get to some of the consumer and the inflation stuff is like we've talked about this a lot.

Back in 2018, when we first put tariffs on China, this was March, and we did not have a framework for a phase one deal. We might have had frameworks in between that, but it wasn't on the front of the page. And then we had a phase one deal that happened in January of 2020. So if they want to go by that old playbook, then they're just going to say, all right, we got a deal, and now we move forward. And they're going to leave those kind of tariffs on and do away with reciprocal

So, again, I just think that's probably not a bad way to kind of consider what we just went through, what we went through, you know, back in 18, 19, 20 and what we might go through now.

Yeah, look, what you're going to hear is they're masterful. By the way, both sides are masterful at spinning things. And this side will do the same thing. We inherited a very weak economy, but through our policies and our tough negotiations, we've turned it around. And you're seeing it in the optimism in the stock. I mean, I can write this stuff myself. And listen,

Whether it's true or not, it almost doesn't matter. I mean, that's going to be the narrative view here. So that could be frustrating, but it goes, this is as old as time in terms of, you know, the spin cycle for politicians. No doubt about it. I just say that Democrats are really bad at it.

They try to do it. The Republicans are the Republicans are really good at it. That's kind of the point that I would make, because I just kind of laid out where the economy was coming in. They lost an election. They lost, you know what I mean? The House and this and whatever, because they're bad at articulating this sort of stuff. So, all right. No harm, no foul, guy. We're back here. I won't argue with you there. I mean, and that's yeah. I mean, I think there's a truth to that. And it's the way.

It's not only the way it's been packaged, but it's the people that sort of package it and put it out there. I mean, so that's another conversation for another time. In terms of the stock market, though, let's just sort of decipher this a little bit. I think the optimism in the market and this run up we've seen since early April to a large extent, I think it's been built on the hopes that something was going to get sort of nailed down and hammered out. And so today, at least,

you're seeing that getting nailed down and hammered out. If we were to see today, and there's obviously a lot of time left in a day, but a market that's sort of open marginally higher and reverses and gives it back on top of a bond market, which sort of rallied on the back of a CPI number. Again, the inflation data continues to come in. When I say better, I'm doing it with sort of air quotes, softer than expected, but I still think it's a problem.

And then we're going to start to have conversations. Is this a, you know, is this this typical buy the rumor, sell the news type of event? So I think that's really what's worth watching. Yeah. And on the CPI front and the inflation front, again, this goes back to, I guess, politics. You know, this was such a flashpoint, you know what I mean? Into the election last year and look at where, you know, um,

inflation is. It's at 2.4%. Now, you can explain that away, whatever you want. You know, mass deportations was supposed to be inflationary, right? Trade war was supposed to be inflationary, you know. So all those things were meant to be inflationary, and they don't appear to be. If you look at that GDP print that we got from Q1, that was explained away by, you know, like a stock

piling in front of this sort of stuff. Maybe the economy is just fine. Maybe unemployment is not going anywhere. Maybe you're going to see a reacceleration of GDP growth here. And maybe that's what crude is telling you a little bit. You know, you and I had been talking about crude purely from a technical standpoint, that break below 65 that happened during that early April period because people were freaked out about the potential for a recession, not just here, but a global recession, that sort of thing.

So maybe everything's back, guy. And, you know, I know you're going to keep kind of quoting some of this consumer data and some of the consumer debt data. Right. And you've used this expression. I think it's, you know, very applicable here that a mid to lower end consumer has been battling inflation with credit.

Right. But if you're going to have yield stay up here, right, you're not going to have a loosening of the housing market. Right. You know, there's a whole host of things that come with that construction and the like. You know what I mean? That's a really important point for activity, you know, economic activity. I mean,

Maybe things are fine. I don't know. But that consumer is the thing that you got to keep coming back to. And just the last thing I'll say today is that Chewy is down 12%. This is a company that sells dog food, cat food, all that sort of stuff over the internet. The quarter looked okay. It had a high bar. And they're talking about they're not seeing inflation. But this might be the very disconnect where you have high expectations for the stock market.

you have high valuations, and if you're not coming in and beating and raising, maybe that's the sort of thing that becomes a problem for the stock market. - No, there's no question, and we've had conversations with different people about valuations, and yesterday I did a panel at iConnections, and I was speaking to a gentleman from Citi, one of their strategists, talking about the valuation, in my opinion, problem, and he was able to sort of explain it away. Everybody's seemingly able to explain away

And S&P 500 is trading about 22 times, if not north of that next year's numbers, which to me is unreasonable in this environment. But maybe it's to your point. Maybe there's some new norm going on. I will say as much as people want to say it's different this time, it's never really different any time. And I think the market is going to come to the realization that

All these problems that have been created have been resolved, yet the biggest problem out there continues to be a market that's expensive and a consumer that, I'll use the word, is somewhat strapped. And I don't know how – it's hard to sort of square that circle in terms of an S&P trading within, as you said yesterday, a whisper of an all-time high. I said a whisker, Guy. Let's be fair. That's why I said whisper. By the way, in Fast Money, they did that lower third, which I love. Yeah, that's what –

You know what? You kind of tripped me up there a little bit. I couldn't remember whether I was a whisper guy or a whisker guy, but I guess I am a whisker guy.

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Let's turn our sights now because we have CPI today came in cooler. We have PPI tomorrow, right? Let's just say it's in line, whatever. We have a Fed meeting next Wednesday. That's June 18th, a 0% probability that the Fed cuts from this kind of four and a quarter, four and a half range.

July 30th is the next meeting. And it looks like there is a also not a high probability, maybe 17 percent that they were to cut. We'll have Jackson Hole at the end of August. And then when we get into September, which will be a year from the basically the week before.

that the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since COVID, okay? And that's when things start to get kind of heated up a little bit. You have only a 33% probability that we will have Fed funds rate at the higher end at 4.5%. So that's where it's coming in. That's what it looks like.

thoughts here because if inflation keeps going that way, if trade goes to the back burner, if we start to hear some progress on a tax bill, is that the sort of thing that acts as a sort of tailwind for the markets, for the economy, and gives the Fed finally some cover to cut interest rates?

Okay, so there's a few different things in there. And I think at some point it's mutually exclusive. I mean, the market can, the economy can start to inflect without question, but it doesn't necessarily mean as a matter of fact, if the market, if the economy were to inflect higher,

The reasons to cut rates become less and less, in my opinion. Again, I'm not an economist, and obviously, I'm not a Fed official. I don't know what the hurry is, why people are so hell-bent on the Fed cutting rates. I think it will do exactly the opposite of what the intended consequences are.

So we'll see. I think they're right to stay put. I think they're right to sort of stay somewhat dug in and people will say, you know, they're being somewhat dogmatic here and they're not really looking ahead and they're going to be late as usual. I don't think that late is going to be bad in this circumstance. I think

being early and wrong is far worse than being late and wrong. So we'll see. And they seem to think along the same lines. Now, will they be pressured? I guess. I mean, we're seeing more and more news about who the next Fed chair will be. Scott Besson's name is out there. But apparently it will be when Chairman Powell's tour is over, I think in May of next year or something like that. So within a year. But

I think they're right to sort of hold the line here, but that's just my opinion. Well, I mean, listen, you know, until you get some sort of indication as we get closer to the EU, I think there was a July 9th trade deadline or, you know, some sort of thing, uh, you know, where they kind of took off some reciprocal tariffs, that sort of thing. Uh,

and then we obviously have that 90 day. It'll be interesting. I mean, listen, what happens during these trade pauses, you see it again and again, and we had this since the, the Switzerland one is that both sides, you know, claim that the other side is breaking the truce. You know what I mean? So that has the potential, um, to get dialed up the other thing. And you've been bringing this up for a while now there's geopolitical tensions. Uh, the Chinese sent a bunch of their major warships into, you know, I, I can't, I was a poli-sci major, but I, um,

I wasn't international relations, but into some of the disputed or, you know what I mean, international waters in Asia. And they're showing their strength and they're doing all that sort of stuff. And maybe that's aimed towards Japan and Taiwan and, you know, and South Korea and the like. But those are the sorts of things that could cause, you know what I mean, some of this kind of trade truce to kind of back off a little bit. So, again, you know, those are things that I think are important to monitor, but they're certainly not on the main page here.

Not with the VIX where it's currently trading, not with the stock market effectively at all-time highs. I mean, none of those things seem to be factored in. And the geopolitical risks that Jamie Dimon talked about a couple weeks ago have not gone away. To your point, they

They've been somewhat ratcheted up. But the market, again, the market's looking past all that. And I think there's this notion, first of all, again, passive flows continue to dominate the scene. And I think there's this belief on the part of sort of the trading and investing public that

They're going to be they're going to stick with this market until it gives them a reason not to. And they can be adept enough and swift enough and cunning enough to get out before it's sort of the bottom potentially falls out in terms of the S&P. And, you know, maybe that's true. And maybe that's listen.

It's hard to argue with that course of action given where we're currently trading. But as you've seen before, things happen very quickly and seemingly out of nowhere. And again, at these levels, the cushion the market has, it has no room for error in terms of some of the headline risk that's out there. And it clearly has no valuation support either.

Yeah. And, you know, you've been talking about this. You just mentioned the VIX at 16 and a half. But the disconnect between the stock market and where the U.S. dollar is and where the 10 year yield is at 4.43. I think this morning was trading as high as 4.51. You know, listen, if you were to see yields start coming in and prior to.

you know, this kind of trade dust up here. You know, we had a 10-year at like four and a quarter, and that's when people, you know, felt like we might be on our way to four, and then the Fed is going to be in a position to start cutting interest rates. In early April, you know, we did see the 10-year yield drop below 4%. It was there for just

a little bit and then we saw it rocket up to 4.6%. That sort of volatility got people kind of freaked out, right? The fact that the dollar hasn't moved, but if you see yields come in, you see the dollar come in, right? And we have some sort of trade truce, that should be a tailwind for US corporate earnings. I mean, that's kind of, I think the bull case right here. And I think both you and I think, okay, 120 points away in the S&P from the all time high at 61.50 back in mid February,

It's clearly going to take a crack at that. But the thing that would make it break out above that, you would need to see a reacceleration in growth in a meaningful way. All right, well, let's move on from that. Energy, we touched on it for a second.

Does this sort of trade truce, does it give the opportunity for the Trump administration to do some deal with the Saudis? You know what I mean? On the oil front, because this was something that I think was very important to them as they thought about their mandate to come in and bring inflation down, that sort of thing. I mean, gas at the pump has clearly...

come down, but now you see oil rallying. Is that a function of a perception of a reacceleration of global growth? What do you think is going on there? Because maybe they can strike a deal now and get crude oil back below 65 or something like that on its way to 60.

Yeah, well, I mean, I think that's the next phase is to try to lower. And listen, I mean, in terms of lower energies, we saw it in the form of crude oil. And, you know, we had said there's a potential if crude oil prices were not going to go meaningfully higher. And this is sort of getting sort of in the weeds here.

Danny talked about this as well. There was a real chance that the Saudis and OPEC just said, you know what, F it. We're just going to flood the market with oil. And that's what we've seen. And then you saw the subsequent move. There is a sweet spot for the price of crude oil, and we're probably at it right now. I don't think there's any, again, my opinion, any reason to negotiate anything at current prices because this is an economy and this is a U.S. oil industry that sort of needs crude oil.

around these prices. So I wouldn't tamper with this all that much because you get much lower than 60, it's gonna have a pretty meaningful impact on the industry here in the United States. And then much below 55, it has a real negative impact. So I think crude is at the sweet spot.

this is just me i don't see any reason to negotiate anything okay um last thing um two software companies reporting this week tonight after the close it's oracle oracle has had an epic rally guy it's gone from basically 120 at it from its april lows

And here we are just below 180. And just to be clear, it's all time highs, you know, came in the form of one. Yeah, exactly. So been a very volatile name. I mean, this is a story where obviously the chairman, Larry Ellison, is very close to the administration, very close to President Trump. One of the first big announcements that we had on the infrastructure side was Larry Ellison, Sam Altman of OpenAI and then Masa's son, Kareem.

from SoftBank and they were talking about $500 billion investment over the next four years. And I think Oracle was really happy to have a seat at that table. We've also heard them, you know, we haven't talked about this in months, but you remember TikTok was supposed to be sold, you know, and that was kind of, you know, kind of been pushed out. Oracle was one of those names that might have been able to do that or at least host the cloud here in the U.S. that TikTok was going to be on.

expectations for Oracle because it's going to be AI, AI, AI, but we know that this business for them is really cloud and cloud. They're a distant fourth or fifth behind the major hyperscalers. Well, first of all, as you know, Oracle was the O in my hope trade number one. And that's one of those old tech names that like IBM, that all of a sudden came out of nowhere and started to inflect and sort of

flex a little bit in terms of what they were able to do. In terms of the setup for the stock, you just said it. I mean, we traded as low as, I think, 120-ish or so in early April, and here we are at 178. It looks very similar to a lot of other names in this world. I mean, all-time highs, November, December, huge sell-off into April, and now approaching those prior all-time highs. So

Personally, I don't think the setup is particularly good here. It's not a valuation thing. I just think it's probably had the move. Do we trade up to those prior highs?

Yeah, maybe. But, you know, like like Broadcom, like a lot of different names that have sold off and gotten back, you know, I think they sort of stole out here. I think Broadcom is a good example of a stock that got back to the levels that they saw back in November, December, only to sort of stall out at those same levels. Yeah. And you just made a point or just kind of reference valuation. This used to be a value trap.

For years, this was trading below a market multiple and folks would say, well, it's just a roll up. The only way they get, you know, sort of earnings growth is buying companies for billions of dollars and getting at, you know, like cough saves out of that and the like here. It trades at 30 times trailing earnings and it trades at nearly 27 times forward with expected growth of, you know, maybe high single digits. So this is, I think Broadcom is a great example. I think that's probably what you have here. You probably fade that. And then the last one before we get out of here,

Adobe reports tomorrow night after the close. This one is really interesting because this is one that back in 23 had this huge run because a lot of folks thought that generative AI would be great for this company, right? And so they have obviously a lot of tools for the creative markets and this and that, whatever. And that was not the case, right? And so from late 23, when the stock was trading, I don't know, I want to say 650 bucks or something, you know, to its lows just recently into, you know, it was what?

$330 or something like that. So it's had this rally here, but it still acts like dog shit. It still massively underperforms

many of its peers. One of the news stories last week that hit the stock was that Meta came out or they're coming out with a set of generative AI tools that they're going to offer directly to brands to create their own advertising, which is really cutting out a company like Adobe. So thoughts on this one, because this seems like one of the first sort of casualties of the sort of generative AI sort of move. We've been talking about use cases. What are they? What does it disintermediate? Adobe seems like one of them.

Yeah. And listen, this is a stock that I think, and you probably have it in front of you, but this is a stock that made its all time high in the fall of 2021. Had a huge sell off like everything else and hasn't really been able to get back even close to

those levels. So maybe they are sort of the collateral damage in this entire thing. But there's no denying whatsoever that in terms of the stock, I mean, you might be able to make an argument that the best days are maybe behind it, not in terms of the company necessarily, but just in terms of the stock and what people are willing to pay for a dollar's worth of their earnings. So this is one worth watching because it has not traded well now. Forget about going back to 21. You go back to sort of

February of 2024, when to your point, it was like a $630 stock. You have a series of lower lows and lower highs, and that has not changed at all. So let's see if that trend is broken. I don't think it will be. All right. One really important point. At Oracle, we just said trade's expensive, not just to its peers, but also the market. Adobe usually or always had been prior to, let's say, those 23 highs, it'd been traded at a premium price.

to most of its peers. Right now, with expected 10% earnings and sales growth this year and next year with an almost 90% gross margin, this stock trades at 20 times this year and 18 times next. So all of a sudden, this one is cheap and it

If they beat and raise guy in a meaningful way and they're able to tell a story, I think this stock's going much higher. That being said, it will be a bloodletting if they miss and they guide lower and it feels like they're operating from a position of weakness and they have no plan going forward. So I'll leave it at that. We'll actually have more to say on both of these on the market call guy on the market call at 11 a.m. today and tomorrow. All right, my man. I'll see you later. Trade well, people. Bye.