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cover of episode Tariff Tantrum with Peter Boockvar

Tariff Tantrum with Peter Boockvar

2025/4/10
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Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员,常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
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Peter Boockvar
作为Bleakley Financial Group的首席投资官和《The Boock Report》的编辑,Peter Boockvar提供深入的经济和市场分析。
Topics
Dan Nathan: 本期节目讨论了近期总统宣布的关税对市场的影响,以及对债券市场波动、盈利预期和风险资产(如原油、黄金和美元)反应的分析。我们还探讨了对长期贸易关系、市场脆弱性和全球经济动态(尤其与中国有关)的潜在影响。我们强调了关税出台前市场已存在的潜在问题,并质疑在持续的经济不确定性下,当前反弹的可持续性。 Peter Boockvar: 我对市场反弹持谨慎态度,认为市场波动还会持续。取消对除中国以外所有国家的报复性关税,对那些依赖中国供应商的企业来说,这并非真正的缓解。市场在关税出台之前就已存在脆弱性,科技股的低迷和政府支出的减少加剧了这种脆弱性。关税只是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。此次反弹可能只是暂时的,建议投资者谨慎对待,并利用反弹机会减仓。此次市场剧烈波动给投资者带来了巨大的心理冲击和潜在的经济损失,并造成了长期的声誉和贸易损害。美国试图压制中国科技发展,反而促使中国加快了自主创新步伐,未来美国科技公司可能会失去中国市场。关注高收入人群的消费支出、政府支出以及科技公司对人工智能的投资,以此判断经济是否复苏。当前市场反弹可能无法持续,因为市场仍处于下行趋势,且经济前景没有实质性改善。全球投资者正在重新评估其对主权债券的持有,这导致了全球多个国家债券收益率上升。标普500指数的脆弱性始于DeepSeek事件,随后科技股的低迷、政府支出放缓以及关税问题共同导致市场下跌。市场尚未触底,因为盈利预期存在不确定性,且市场估值过高。探讨资本支出对牛市的支持作用,以及经济放缓可能导致资本支出减少的风险。探讨贸易逆差的含义,以及将贸易逆差简单地视为“被剥削”的错误观念。市场尚未为失业率的显著上升做好准备,全球贸易的停滞将导致企业减少招聘。美联储可能不会在经济危机爆发前就采取行动,而是在危机发生后才会干预。 Guy Adami: (观点与Peter Boockvar部分重叠,此处省略具体论述,请参考完整对话记录)

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Dan Nathan is joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakly Advisors, to discuss the market's response to recent tariff announcements by the president. They talk about bond market volatility, earnings estimates, and the reaction from risk assets like crude oil, gold, and the U.S. dollar. Peter provides an in-depth analysis of the tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto imports, and the temporary 90-day respite on reciprocal tariffs excluding China. The discussion also covers potential long-term impacts on trade relations, market fragility, and the shift in global economic dynamics, especially concerning China. They emphasize the market's underlying issues preceding the tariffs and question the sustainability of the current rally given ongoing economic uncertainties.

After the break, Guy Adami and Peter explore the dramatic shifts in bond yields, the complexities of the current economic situation, and the implications of tariffs on global trade. Peter breaks down the traditional treasury trades, the impact of international relations on US treasuries, and the potential market reactions to various economic policies. The discussion also covers the weakening dollar, de-leveraging in the market, and the potential for a slowdown in the economy. They emphasize the importance of a disciplined approach to market analysis amidst unprecedented market movements and political maneuvers.

Articles Referenced

  • List of largest daily changes in the S&P 500 Index (Wikipedia))

  • Trump Watched Dimon Interview on Fox Before Deciding on Tariff Pause (WSJ))

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