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cover of episode Yields Spike After Hot Jobs Report | MRKT Call x On The Tape

Yields Spike After Hot Jobs Report | MRKT Call x On The Tape

2025/1/10
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On The Tape
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D
Dan Nathan
知名金融分析师和评论员，常在 CNBC 上提供市场分析和评论。
G
Guy Adami
经验丰富的华尔街交易员和金融分析师，知名媒体人物。
L
Liz Thomas
Topics
Dan Nathan: 我认为美联储在9月份降息50个基点可能是一个错误，他们应该在7月份就开始降息。当前市场对强劲的就业数据反应强烈，收益率上升，这引发了人们对美联储未来行动的担忧。此外，我质疑美联储对通胀率的2%目标是否过于僵化，这可能忽略了当前经济环境的复杂性。 我关注标普500指数的盈利预期，我认为这些预期可能过于乐观，尤其是在大型科技公司在海外市场敞口较大的情况下。随着收益率的上升和美元的走强，我认为这些盈利预期在不久的将来可能会下调。 我建议关注小型股的表现，因为它们通常被认为是经济敏感型股票。如果经济真的强劲，小型股应该表现良好。然而，如果小型股表现不佳，这可能预示着市场存在更大的问题。 我建议卖出标普500指数的反弹，因为其图表显示出看跌趋势，并且已经突破了之前的支撑位。 Liz Thomas: 我认为美联储在9月份降息50个基点并非错误，而是在7月份没有开始降息的补救措施。目前市场关注点已从就业转向通胀。美联储坚持2%的通胀目标，是因为需要一个可衡量的目标来设定预期，改变目标意味着承认失败。 科技股的跌幅大于其他板块，表明市场关注的是利率而非经济增长。市场对美联储未来加息的预期已经发生了变化，这导致了收益率的上升。 我预计科技公司将继续主导盈利增长，但如果这些公司未能达到高预期，将会对市场情绪和增长指数产生重大影响。 市值加权的标普500指数（RSP）表现不佳，表明市场并未广泛上涨，大型科技股主导市场。小型股未能确认市场广泛上涨的趋势。 消费者可选消费品板块可能需要一段时间才能复苏，因为通胀担忧和经济不确定性。 Guy Adami: 我认为市场对强劲就业数据的反应有些过度。虽然经济数据向好，但这并不一定意味着市场会持续上涨。 英伟达股价可能下跌35%到40%。 油价近期上涨，但需谨慎，可能面临回调风险。美元和能源价格上涨是由不同因素驱动的，能源价格上涨主要受地缘政治因素影响，美元上涨则受关税和收益率上升影响。 Lululemon股价已回升至50%的回调位，但估值仍然较高。 鉴于通胀担忧和经济不确定性，消费者可选消费品板块可能需要一段时间才能复苏。房屋重建将是一个长期过程，家得宝和劳氏等公司可能从中受益，但仍存在不确定性。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What was the unemployment rate reported in the recent jobs report?

The unemployment rate ticked back down to 4.1% in the recent jobs report.

Why did the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September?

The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September to catch up after not starting in July, as the jobs market had become more balanced and wage growth was no longer a major concern.

What is the current market expectation for Fed rate cuts by the end of the year?

The market now expects only about a 28% chance of two rate cuts by the end of the year, down from above 60% the previous day.

What is the significance of the 2% inflation target set by the Fed?

The 2% inflation target was established as a measurable goal to set expectations and signal the Fed's commitment to managing inflation. Adjusting it would imply a failure to meet their goals.

How did the NASDAQ perform compared to other indices after the jobs report?

The NASDAQ was down 2.25%, indicating that growth stocks fell faster and harder than other sectors, suggesting the market reaction was primarily about rates rather than economic growth concerns.

What is the outlook for tech sector earnings in 2025?

The tech sector is expected to contribute 21-22% of earnings growth in 2025, with high expectations for companies to beat earnings and raise guidance to sustain market sentiment.

What is the relationship between the dollar and oil prices in the current market?

The dollar and oil are currently driven by different forces—geopolitical supply shocks for oil and inflation concerns for the dollar. However, if global economic fear rises, the dollar could strengthen further.

What is the current consumer discretionary outlook given rising yields?

Consumer discretionary stocks are under pressure due to rising yields, and consumers may pause spending due to inflation concerns, making it a sector to wait out in the near term.

Chapters
The podcast opens with a discussion on the devastating impact of recent wildfires in California, affecting the lives of many individuals and the local economy. The hosts express their sympathy and concern for those affected, emphasizing that the emotional impact transcends the monetary value of lost property.
  • Wildfires impacting California, affecting individuals and economy
  • Emotional impact transcends monetary loss

Shownotes Transcript

Dan Nathan, Liz Thomas and Guy Adami are together for a special Friday drop of the On the Tape podcast. They start with a discussion on the ongoing impact of recent wildfires. The conversation shifts to the week's market movements, with a specific focus on the job numbers and its implications for future Fed rate cuts. Emphasizing the Fed's choices and their impact on the economy, Elizabeth provides detailed insights into recent economic data, emphasizing the balance between inflation and employment. They also discuss significant market segments, including the S&P 500, tech stocks like NVIDIA and Apple, and consumer technology expectations. Towards the end, they touch on energy stocks, geopolitical factors influencing oil prices, and the outlook for consumer discretionary sectors. The episode concludes with comments on the performance and future expectations of companies like Lululemon, Nike, and American Airlines.

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About the Show:

On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market.

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