We're sunsetting PodQuest on 2025-07-28. Thank you for your support!
Export Podcast Subscriptions
cover of episode Can Stocks Pull Off a Year-End Rally 12/26/24

Can Stocks Pull Off a Year-End Rally 12/26/24

2024/12/26
logo of podcast Halftime Report

Halftime Report
AI Deep Dive AI Insights AI Chapters Transcript
People
B
Bob Pisani
长期担任CNBC高级市场记者，专注于覆盖全球股票市场和金融市场结构。
B
Bryn Talkington
J
Jim Lebenthal
知名投资分析师和评论员，常客于CNBC的金融节目。
J
Joe Terranova
知名华尔街分析师和投资策略师，现任 Virtus Investment Partners 首席市场策略师。
J
Josh Brown
金融分析师和评论家，专注于金融市场趋势和经济预测。
S
Seema Modi
Topics
Frank Holland: 就2024年最后四个交易日，以及华尔街对新年的热门股票（如3M、亚马逊和戴尔）的看法，与投资委员会成员进行了讨论。 Joe Terranova: 指出市场短期走势受算法和零日期期权主导，投资者更应该关注长期市场走势，而非每日波动。并对1月份的市场走势进行了预测，认为过去四年1月份早期的市场走势往往预示着全年的市场趋势。 Jim Lebenthal: 认为年底最后几天的市场走势受非理性因素影响较大，基本面分析师不会过多关注这段时间的市场表现，但看好明年市场反弹，并分析了支撑其看涨观点的经济因素。 Bryn Talkington: 强调市场每日波动受算法影响，但长期走势受市场情绪、基本面和盈利驱动。并对美元走强对能源和材料板块的影响进行了分析，以及对日元套利交易的看法。同时，对Palantir和BHP股票的投资策略进行了说明。 Josh Brown: 认为年底最后几天的交易不重要，大部分人的投资收益已达预期，大部分的资产再平衡会在1月份进行，而不是12月份。并指出美元升值、债券收益率上升以及关税政策是2025年第一季度面临的三大风险，投资者应谨慎对待。同时，对零日期期权交易对房地产市场的影响大于对股票市场的影响进行了分析。 Joe Terranova: 认为市场短期走势受算法和零日期期权主导，投资者更应该关注长期市场走势，而非每日波动。并对1月份的市场走势进行了预测，认为过去四年1月份早期的市场走势往往预示着全年的市场趋势。 Jim Lebenthal: 认为年底最后几天的市场走势受非理性因素影响较大，基本面分析师不会过多关注这段时间的市场表现，但看好明年市场反弹，并分析了支撑其看涨观点的经济因素。 Bryn Talkington: 强调市场每日波动受算法影响，但长期走势受市场情绪、基本面和盈利驱动。并对美元走强对能源和材料板块的影响进行了分析，以及对日元套利交易的看法。同时，对Palantir和BHP股票的投资策略进行了说明。 Josh Brown: 认为年底最后几天的交易不重要，大部分人的投资收益已达预期，大部分的资产再平衡会在1月份进行，而不是12月份。并指出美元升值、债券收益率上升以及关税政策是2025年第一季度面临的三大风险，投资者应谨慎对待。同时，对零日期期权交易对房地产市场的影响大于对股票市场的影响进行了分析。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the current state of the market as of December 26, 2024?

The Dow is up by a tenth of a percent, the S&P is slightly above flat, and the NASDAQ is similarly performing. The Russell is the best performer, up over half a percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is at 4.60%, close to its highest level since May.

Why is there limited trading activity expected in the last days of 2024?

Most investors have already had a successful year and do not feel the need to trade aggressively. Wealth management firms will focus on rebalancing in January to avoid triggering taxable gains in December.

What are the potential risks for the market in early 2025?

Key risks include Nvidia's earnings on February 26th, a potential surge in the dollar's value, and uncertainties around tariffs. These factors could impact earnings and market sentiment.

What is the January effect and how has it influenced the market in recent years?

The January effect refers to the trend where the early days of January set the tone for the year. In the last four years, the S&P's low or high for the year occurred within the first few trading days of January. This pattern is closely watched by investors and hedge funds.

What are Wall Street's top stock picks for 2025?

UBS highlights 3M, Amazon, and Dell as top picks for 2025. 3M is seen as a turnaround story, Dell is benefiting from growth in its infrastructure solutions group, and Amazon is favored for its strong fundamentals and cloud services.

What is the outlook for buybacks in 2025?

2024 saw a record $947 billion in buybacks, and 2025 is expected to continue this trend. Major tech, bank, and energy companies like Apple, Alphabet, and Exxon are leading the buyback activity, supported by strong cash flows.

What is the current sentiment around Bitcoin as of December 2024?

Bitcoin is holding just below $96,000, but 57% of participants in CNBC's Delivering Alpha survey believe it is more likely to fall to $50,000 before rising to $200,000. Volatility remains a key characteristic of Bitcoin's market behavior.

Shownotes Transcript

Frank Holland and the Investment Committee debate whether stocks can pull off a year-end rally with only 4 trading days left in 2024. Plus, the Committee discuss some of Wall Street’s favorite stocks for the New Year including 3M, Amazon and Dell. And later, we’ll give Bryn Talkington her year-end portfolio report.  

Investment Committee Disclosures)