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cover of episode CNBC Pro Talks: Grayscale's Zach Pandl on bitcoin's rally and the crypto market's setup for 2025 12/31/24

CNBC Pro Talks: Grayscale's Zach Pandl on bitcoin's rally and the crypto market's setup for 2025 12/31/24

2024/12/31
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Tanaya Macheel
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Zach Pandl
领导Grayscale的研究工作,推动加密货币ETF发展,并深入研究加密货币市场。
Topics
Tanaya Macheel: 2024年是加密货币进入主流的关键一年,主要原因包括首批比特币ETF在美国上市、比特币减半事件以及美国政治对数字货币态度的转变。比特币价格也因此从年初的42000美元飙升至年末的约100000美元。 Zach Pandl: 我认为2024年加密货币市场上涨的主要驱动力是宏观经济环境的改善(经济软着陆,美联储降息),以及比特币ETF的推出和美国总统大选的结果。这些因素共同改变了人们对加密货币的认知,并降低了该行业的风险。比特币ETF的推出非常成功,吸引了大量资金流入,但其普及仍处于早期阶段,未来仍有很大的增长空间。同时,以太坊在2024年的表现不及比特币,这与其升级后的技术挑战以及与其他区块链的竞争有关,但其作为领先的智能合约平台的地位依然稳固,未来有望与传统金融进一步融合。许多投资者对以太坊的应用案例缺乏了解,这阻碍了其发展,未来需要加强教育,让更多人体验以太坊的应用,从而理解其价值。2024年的加密货币市场周期主题是比特币作为价值储存手段的成功,这与全球经济形势和地缘政治因素有关。 Zach Pandl: 我的职业生涯始于宏观经济学家,在华尔街工作,后来转向加密货币领域,因为我认为比特币具有最光明的未来,并相信其在未来5-10年内能带来优异的回报。Grayscale凭借先发优势以及产品多样化和低成本,在竞争中占据有利地位,未来将继续推出更多不同结构的产品。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What were the key drivers behind Bitcoin's rally in 2024?

The 2024 Bitcoin rally was driven by a favorable macroeconomic environment, including a soft landing for the economy and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Additionally, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the election of Donald Trump, who pledged a crypto-friendly stance, significantly boosted Bitcoin's mainstream acceptance and reduced downside risks for the industry.

Why did Bitcoin outperform other assets in 2024?

Bitcoin outperformed other assets in 2024 due to its unique drivers, such as the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a crypto-friendly political shift under Donald Trump. These factors, combined with a favorable macroeconomic backdrop, solidified Bitcoin's position as a mainstream asset and attracted significant investor interest.

What role did ETFs play in Bitcoin's 2024 performance?

ETFs played a pivotal role in Bitcoin's 2024 performance by providing regulated access to Bitcoin for U.S. investors. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted both retail and institutional investors, leading to significant inflows and further legitimizing Bitcoin as a mainstream investment asset.

Why has Ethereum underperformed compared to Bitcoin in 2024?

Ethereum underperformed in 2024 due to its transition to a scaling strategy involving layer two networks, which raised questions about its value accrual and competition with high-performance blockchains like Solana. Despite its technological importance, Ethereum faced challenges in clearly communicating its investment thesis to institutional investors.

What is the outlook for Ethereum in 2025?

Ethereum's outlook for 2025 is positive, with expectations of increased integration with traditional finance and Wall Street. As the regulatory environment evolves, Ethereum's regulatory clarity, ETFs, and established track record position it as a natural starting point for institutional adoption, particularly in tokenization and payments projects.

What is the main theme of the 2024 crypto cycle?

The main theme of the 2024 crypto cycle has been Bitcoin's success as a store of value. Factors such as inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and shifting U.S. political priorities have driven interest in Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional financial systems, solidifying its long-term role in the global economy.

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the significant factors behind Bitcoin's remarkable price surge in 2024, exceeding $100,000. It highlights the impact of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, the Bitcoin halving, a shift in US political sentiment towards crypto, and the overall positive macroeconomic environment.
  • Bitcoin's price soared from $42,000 to around $100,000 in 2024.
  • The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US significantly impacted the market.
  • The Bitcoin halving, a regular network update, historically triggers bull runs.
  • A change in US political stance toward cryptocurrencies positively influenced the market.
  • A positive macroeconomic climate, including a soft landing and interest rate cuts, boosted Bitcoin's performance.

Shownotes Transcript

CNBC's Tanaya Macheel speaks with Zach Pandl, Managing director of research for Grayscale, to break down the cryptocurrency market's explosive 2024. Pandl also shares what thinks could drive digital asset prices even higher in 2025 and takes questions from Pro subscribers.