Is a Year-End Run Likely? 12/13/24
Halftime Report
Deep Dive
Why might stocks have another run in the final two and a half weeks of the year?
Seasonality typically favors a strong finish to the year, and there has been less tax-loss selling this year compared to prior years. Additionally, many investors are underweight tech and large-cap stocks, which could lead to buying pressure as they try to catch up with the market.
What is the current valuation of the NASDAQ, and how does it compare to previous years?
The forward PE for the NASDAQ is 29.9, which is high but not higher than its 2021 level.
What is the significance of the mega-cap tech companies surpassing $18 trillion in collective valuation?
The $18 trillion valuation of mega-cap tech companies is historic, as it exceeds the GDP of every country except the U.S. and China. This highlights the dominance of U.S. tech in the global economy.
Why did Broadcom's stock surge after its earnings report?
Broadcom's AI revenue tripled year-over-year, and the company raised its revenue forecast for 2027, leading to multiple price target increases and a 20% stock surge.
What is the current sentiment towards crypto among U.S. adults, according to a CNBC survey?
Only 13% of U.S. adults own crypto, and just 7% would consider taking their salary in Bitcoin. However, crypto ownership is higher among younger, college-educated, and Republican demographics.
Why did Josh Brown buy more Uber stock despite its recent dip?
Uber's stock is trading at a significant discount due to misperceptions about Tesla and Waymo developments. With a forward PE of 26 and strong growth prospects, Brown sees it as a compelling buy with a potential 56% upside based on Goldman Sachs' target price.
What is the significance of MicroStrategy being considered a proxy for Bitcoin?
MicroStrategy is heavily invested in Bitcoin, making its stock a leveraged play on Bitcoin's price movements. This has led to extreme volatility in its options market, with some calls offering a potential 145% return over a year.
What is the current state of the S&P 500 median stock performance, and why is it important?
The median S&P 500 stock is down 4% over the last two weeks, which could be a sign of market resetting after excessive optimism and inflows post-election. This could set the stage for a potential year-end rally.
What is the potential breakout stock Josh Brown highlighted in his trade update?
Emerson Electric (EMR) is a potential breakout candidate due to its transformation into a tech company through acquisitions and rising gross margins, despite its long history as an industrial stock.
- Investors are pondering if there's another stock rally left for the year-end.
- Seasonal trends suggest a potential rally due to reduced tax-loss selling pressure.
- Mega cap tech companies have collectively surpassed an $18 trillion valuation.
- Market breadth has been negative, with more decliners than advancers.
- The NASDAQ's forward PE stands at 29.9, indicating high valuations.
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