Nvidia roars back 12/18/24
Halftime Report
Deep Dive
Why did the Investment Committee trim their position in NVIDIA by 20%?
The decision was based on technical levels that triggered concerns, not a dislike for NVIDIA. The stock had been slipping deeper into correction territory, and the move was part of portfolio management to maintain flexibility.
What is the key technical level to watch for NVIDIA's stock?
The key level to watch is $135. The stock had briefly broken below this level but regained it, and it is currently sitting just below this mark.
What is the significance of Jensen Huang's speech at CES on January 6th for NVIDIA's stock?
While Jensen Huang's speeches have historically caused short-term pops in the stock, the impact has been diminishing. The speech is unlikely to significantly move the stock unless there is a marked increase in anticipation leading up to the event.
How does Microsoft's acquisition of NVIDIA AI chips impact NVIDIA's market position?
Microsoft has acquired twice as many NVIDIA AI chips (485,000 Hopper chips) as its next biggest US customer, Meta, which bought about half that amount. This positions Microsoft far ahead in terms of AI chip demand, highlighting NVIDIA's strong market position in AI technology.
What is the near-term outlook for NVIDIA's stock based on momentum?
Over the last six months, NVIDIA's momentum has been flat, scoring a zero. However, over the last 12 months, it scores an eight, indicating that while the marginal buyer is already in, the stock still has strong momentum on a broader scale.
What is the potential impact of competitors designing their own chips on NVIDIA's demand?
Competitors like Meta and Microsoft are designing their own chips to reduce reliance on NVIDIA. However, this is not expected to impact NVIDIA's demand anytime soon, though it could become a factor within the next year as new fabrication facilities come online.
How has Broadcom's performance compared to NVIDIA's recently?
Broadcom has significantly outperformed NVIDIA, rising 29% since last Friday, while NVIDIA has seen a more modest recovery. Broadcom's strong performance has also boosted the semiconductor ETF (SMH), which is having its best month since June.
What is the Investment Committee's view on Bitcoin's momentum and future?
Bitcoin is seen as the safest speculative trade in the market due to pro-crypto policies expected under the next administration. Momentum is expected to continue into next year, though volatility is likely to persist.
What is the significance of the Fed's decision for the market's year-end rally?
The Fed's decision is crucial for the market's year-end rally. A hawkish pause is expected, but if the Fed communicates more dovishly than anticipated, it could accelerate the rally. Conversely, a too hawkish stance could hinder the rally.
Why is India considered a strong emerging market for investment?
India is seen as the perfect emerging market due to its large, young population driving consumption and digital adoption. It has the fastest-growing GDP in the world (7%) and a unique digital infrastructure that supports growth.
- Nvidia's stock price movement and technical analysis (20-day and 200-day moving averages).
- Discussion of portfolio management strategies concerning Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks.
- Debate on the significance of Jensen Huang's CES speech for Nvidia's stock price.
Shownotes Transcript