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Rethinking the Risk of Recession 3/31/25
2025/3/31
Halftime Report
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Jeff DeGraff
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Jim Laventhal
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Joe Terranova
知名华尔街分析师和投资策略师，现任 Virtus Investment Partners 首席市场策略师。
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Matt Bartolini
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Mike Santoli
以超过20年的华尔街报道经验，目前担任CNBC高级市场评论员的金融专家。
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Scott Wapner
主持《Halftime Report》，领导投资委员会讨论市场趋势和投资策略。
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Shannon Saccocia
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Steve Weiss
活跃的投资者和金融分析师，常在 CNBC 分享投资观点和策略。
Jeff DeGraff: 我认为市场情绪已经悲观到足以产生反弹，因为负面因素已经被充分计价。信贷利差也没有恶化，我认为现在是深呼吸，认真思考我们所处位置的时候了。
Jim Laventhal: 近八周市场特征已发生剧烈变化，领导地位已从进攻型股票转向防御型股票。目前市场策略应以谨慎防御为主，而非积极进攻。市场风险依然存在，情况可能恶化，关乎关税的不确定性。4月2日关税政策的最终确定性将影响市场走势，不确定性可能导致市场下跌。关税的不确定性必须消除，才能让公司、消费者和投资者做出相应的规划。
Steve Weiss: 我认为总统不会故意将经济推向衰退，持续的关税可能会导致利率下降。10年期国债收益率4.25%并非低利率，经济可以在此利率下良好运转。当前市场情况与以往的单一事件不同，关税问题将持续影响市场。政府通过制造混乱来降低利率的说法是荒谬的，利率下降是因为人们寻求债券避险。政府短期内并不关心经济，他们认为需要经历一个“解毒期”才能获得更强的经济复苏。市场可能短期反弹，但长期来看，经济将持续下行，市场也将下跌。当前经济政策如同在比赛中执行不佳的战术，最终结果可能不尽如人意。市场对总统的政策反应不再积极，因为其政策已实施多次。市场的不确定性依然存在，并非单一事件可以解决。税收减免、放松管制等措施的积极影响是短期现象，长期不确定性依然存在。放松管制对银行的帮助有限，不会导致其放松信贷标准。由于来自聊天机器人的竞争，谷歌搜索业务面临长期结构性压力，因此应该减持Alphabet股票。科技股是市场关键，今年科技巨头七大公司（MAG-7）将大幅落后于其他公司。如果市场持续混乱，经济疲软，可能出现衰退，那么其他市场板块的广泛交易将难以奏效。散户投资者在经历了两年的大幅收益后，正在进行获利了结。市场正在进行现实检验，对科技股的目标价格被下调。科技股目标价格下调的原因可能是整体经济增长放缓或人工智能货币化的扩张问题。尽管科技股下跌，但其他板块表现良好，例如金融和医疗保健板块。美国例外论的概念可能不再适用，欧洲市场可能存在进一步轮动的空间。科技行业正在经历从两年来的显著跑赢到表现不佳的转变，投资者应关注非科技类市场。
Shannon Saccocia: 当前经济的不确定性导致商业、投资和消费者活动陷入瘫痪。市场焦点可能要到6月或7月才会转向税收和《减税与就业法案》的延期问题。财政部正试图通过降低利率、减少冲突和控制福利支出等措施来缓解财政压力。需要明确的关税政策、财政支出政策和《减税与就业法案》的刺激措施才能提振市场情绪。
Joe Terranova: 即将到来的财报季将显示出第一季度市场波动对资本支出的影响，企业将减少资本支出，导致业绩指引下调。政府对经济的承受能力尚不清楚，企业将首先维持成本稳定，这将对企业支出和云计算支出产生负面影响。今年是债券之年，投资者应关注债券，特别是TLT。能源价格即将上涨，埃克森美孚公司是能源板块的良好投资选择。
Matt Bartolini: 主动型ETF的增长并非仅仅由于市场波动，而是由于ETF结构的多样性和灵活性。主动型ETF的增长也体现在超短期债券领域，投资者利用主动型策略来寻求比现金更高的回报。超短期主动型债券基金的资金流入部分原因是市场波动，但高收益率也是一个因素。
Mike Santoli: 市场可能已经达到“坏到好”的程度，情绪非常悲观，需要进一步数据来确认市场是否已经触底。市场需要经济稳定和就业数据方面的保证。
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Jim Laventhal: 'So I think potentially that means you could get a little bit of a bounce in the market, similar to what you had after March 13th. But I think it's very obvious to me, Scott, the personality of the market has changed dramatically over the last eight weeks. And it's a personality that, while changing, has moved leadership away from opposition.'
Jim Laventhal: 'offensive-oriented stocks, semiconductors, technology, momentum, more towards a cautiousness, more towards a defensive nature, whether that's staples or utilities or even bonds themselves. So if I'm trying to identify where could I find momentum in the marketplace, I think the momentum I find in the marketplace is in the cautiousness. I do think right now the right strategy to have is not to feel as though you're on the power play. Feel as though what you're trying to do is score the goal because you have a man advantage or a two-man advantage. I feel like right now you have to approach this market from the standpoint of you're on the penalty kill. And on the penalty kill, you're constantly defending. And I think that's the environment we're in right now.'
Jim Laventhal: 'Yeah, that's not good. That's not good. That's the problem, Scott. I'm not comfortable. All right. I see the danger. All right. I like your analysis about the penalty kill. And that would lead me to say, OK, well, it's just a matter of time. Kill the penalty and move on. But it's not. It's not. Things can get worse. And it really comes down to look. The problem and the solution are the same thing. It's this tariff uncertainty. It's very specific what's bothering the markets right now.'
Jim Laventhal: 'And if we get to big if, OK, if we get to April 2nd and there's some finality, OK, I'll feel better. But let me tell you what the bad scenario is and where the 5250 becomes reasonable. Analyst estimates have hung in there for the full year earnings on the S&P 500. I, for one, don't see how somebody like Delta Airlines, Ed Bastian, and I know we're going to talk about them later. We can talk about them in more detail. But they're the first to report next week, right? I don't know how they can come out and still maintain their full year optimism if, big if, I'm looking at you, Scott, if the tariff uncertainty remains the way it is right now.'
Jim Laventhal: 'it's, it's very simple the tariff uncertainty has to come down so everybody whether you're a company where your consumer whether your investor I can start planning accordingly and I'll close on this let me be clear I miss I was uncomfortable as I've been in years'
Steve Weiss: 'At the end of the day, where my analysis comes down to is I don't think the president's stupid. I don't think he's crazy. I can't think of a rationale for driving the economy into recession, which is what continued tariff on. I mean, you get yields lower like they want. You know that that's a big deal that the Treasury secretary has been talking about. You want to if you want to get the patient is that you want to get rates down by a lot in a hurry. You let the economy weaken to a point where you hurt demand and you get a 10-year that's lower.'
Steve Weiss: 'I mean, look, we don't know is the answer. I mean, to me, four and a quarter on the 10-year, like, let's be real. In the history of my life, four and a quarter is a low rate. The world can do just fine at four and a quarter. If you're driving it, not you. If one is saying, I need three and a half,'
Steve Weiss: 'This is different, and I'll tell you why this is different. It's different because those were one-off events, one-instance events. Brexit, there's nothing following Brexit around. Trump being elected, that was the election day that everybody was going to. Here, it's going to be an ongoing atrophy of the market to think that they're causing this havoc.'
Steve Weiss: 'The administration has this great plan behind the scenes causing this havoc to drive rates down is ludicrous. Okay, rates are coming down because people are going to hide in bonds. They're not, and it's not going down because they want to drive the housing market. They don't care about that.'
Steve Weiss: 'They don't care about it near term. They don't care about it near term. And if they do care, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, okay? I'm saying they don't care about it near term. If I thought they were doing this because they thought this would drive the economy, then I'd have a different adjective for it. But they do. They just think that you need to go through. I'm just telling you what they've said. This is not my point of view. You need to go through the detox period so that you can come out stronger on the other side.'
Steve Weiss: 'So, yeah, we'll get to periods where the market may rally because it gets oversold from some emotional moves in the short term, like Joe says. And I believe that. And could it be Wednesday? Could it be Thursday? Sure. But on an extended basis, no. The economy is atrophying. The market will go lower. Earnings estimates will be coming down.'
Steve Weiss: 'But when you get to a game, it's a toss-up. Is it going to be a touchdown? Is it going to be incomplete? Or is it going to be an interception? My view is, my call is, it's an interception and that we're screwing up on the execution. It's going lower.'
Shannon Saccocia: 'Larry Fink in his annual letter, of course, the head of BlackRock, I hear it from nearly every client, he writes, nearly every leader, nearly every person I talk to, they're more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory. Of course, you recall as well, Rick Reeder of BlackRock telling me just the other day that it's time to hunker down, that this level of uncertainty has just put a paralysis on the business and investing and consumer community.'
Shannon Saccocia: 'Yeah, clearly, Scott, there needs to be a shift in the focus. And I think the challenge is here is that, you know, that shift in focus probably doesn't come to us until, you know, June, July, when we really start to focus on taxes and the extension of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act.'
Shannon Saccocia: 'If you think about, if you listen to Treasury Secretary Besant, what he's trying to do is he's trying to alleviate some of the pressure from the fiscal perspective. He's trying to bring down that deficit. Tariffs can do some of that. But if you look at the three main pillars of that, it's the interest expense, so therefore lower yields; it's defense, which trying to move out of some of these conflicts in which we have been quite involved; and The third thing is entitlements, and everyone knows that that's really difficult to touch coming into a midterm year in '26.'
Shannon Saccocia: 'What you really need to look for is you need to look for a more prescriptive approach in terms of tariffs, coupled with a more prescriptive approach in terms of what's happening in Washington on the spending side, and then most importantly, looking for some of that stimulus, stimulative activity in terms of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act to come through in the second half of the year.'
Joe Terranova: 'I think we are about to learn in the upcoming earnings season that there has been an effect from the volatility we experienced in the first quarter. And I think that comes in the form of CapEx pulling back. I think CapEx intentions are not going to be as aggressive as they were we've heard from companies like walmart costco and others they're building inventory you have to be concerned that if the economy continues to contract further that they're going to be stuck with that inventory so i don't i don't understand how guidance can be overwhelmingly optimistic in the upcoming quarter guidance is going to be bad guidance is going to be bad so if guidance is going to be bad i think that's going to put pressure on the treasury market'
Joe Terranova: 'What is their true pain threshold? We don't know that yet. Was it 10% down? Maybe not. I don't know. But they can't control what the pain threshold is and what the outlook for CEOs will be. So, for example, go back to Google. We talked about search. Search is not a secret. It's not today's news. They've been losing share in search. But the first thing that CEOs do, one of the first things, they look to hold costs steady before cutting. And that will impact and enterprise spending that won't impact cloud spending so you'll have a double negative with google you'll have the negative with amazon you'll have negative with microsoft where they'll come out and say cloud growth which had just recovered really last two quarters last two quarters i've reported is going to decline again you know i'm absolutely convinced of that because that's an easy lever to pull'
Matt Bartolini: 'I think it's a little bit of something else. I think it just speaks to the versatility and flexibility of the ETF structure and the type of strategies that can be provided now in this type of format, because it's really not a lot of just sort of deep-rooted, fundamental, active strategies. There's a lot of different types of approaches within the active ETF market like ones that can manage volatility, like ones that can seek higher income opportunities, like ones that are more cash plus type vehicles. So I don't think it's a result of the market volatility. I think these are secular changes and trends that we've seen play out over the last few years and are now being accelerated this year as more investors are becoming comfortable in using active ETFs in their portfolios.'
Matt Bartolini: 'So for instance, the number one category that has had the highest amount of flows this year is the ultra-short bond category. That's a category that's trying to eke out more returns over cash and you can actually find some real good inefficiencies by using securitized products and not just owning sort of your T-bills or whatnot. So the ability to use active in some markets is because of the flexibility. And then again, some of these constructs, they're really rules-based and they're only being active in terms of when their trading strategies would kick in. So it's not that sort of similar historical 30 stock portfolio active that a lot of people think about.'
Matt Bartolini: 'Well, this is where there is a little bit of recency bias to the market volatility like you mentioned on that first question. I think you're starting to see some folks go into that space just to sort of hide out during this period of pretty sizable market volatility within equities where a lot of investors also have a lot of concentration into. So I think part of it's that also, but to your point, your yields are looking pretty good at this point as well in that 5% range. And that active sort of flexibility can maybe get you a little bit more from that perspective.'
Mike Santoli: 'And, you know, it's a matter of whether we keep thinking we might have gotten one of these moments where it's kind of so bad, it's good. So much of the market is down. Sentiment is so sour. You know, it'd be interesting to see once you have a full day's worth of trading data to say, OK, now we're going to figure out if this retest of the lows from this morning was on less intensity, whether it really does fit the description of what you'd want to see for a revisit to an old low.'
Mike Santoli: 'The thing is, it's really defensive stuff leading. It's low vol that's up today. The NASDAQ 100 is still down 1%. So the broken stuff has not been repaired. It's just that there's an offset within the market. I mean, the jobs report is obviously beyond the tariffs of April 2nd, is looming really large. Hard press to think that it's going to be some great report. I mean, given all the uncertainty that everybody's been talking about. You would think if it is, it would be kind of dismissed as fluky. And we'll get jolts on Wednesday, maybe set up the Friday number. But yes, the market craves reassurance. The economy's hanging in there. We'll see if we get it.'
Deep Dive
The market's recent shift towards defensive stocks and cautious behavior raises concerns about a potential recession. Uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on earnings is a major contributing factor. Gold prices are rising, while yields are falling, reflecting this apprehension.
- Shift in market leadership away from offensive stocks (semiconductors, technology) to defensive stocks (staples, utilities, bonds)
- Tariff uncertainty as a primary concern
- Falling yields, rising gold prices
Shownotes Transcript