The Fed, the Markets and your Money 6/24/25
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No big surprises today, really underscoring that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates until it can assess the impact of the Trump tariffs on the economy, very similar to what he said at the Fed meeting last week. We bring in now our senior economics reporter, Steve Leisman. That is the news of the day, that there's no new news. Although I have to say, Steve, Chair Powell pretty explicitly said that if not for the tariffs and the uncertainty created by them, the Fed would already be cutting. Is that your takeaway here?

Yeah, I think that's a pretty...

widely held belief on the committee, Scott. Look, I don't think he really changed his tune from last Wednesday. Maybe loosening up a bit the harshest possible hawkish view. But he didn't say the door was closed for the summer, but he basically said it's not his intention to open it. In fact, Scott, if you mind, I've got one quote here I want to run from him if it's there about him talking about the idea of tariffs passing through that I think summarizes the last three hours, if you can run it.

We think we should start to see this over the summer, you know, in the June numbers and in the July numbers. And if we don't, I think we're learning here. If we see less pass-through, there aren't historical experiences we can consult here, really. So it may turn out that the pass-through is less or more than we think.

here you go scott less or more than we think and he's just going to hang out and look i think we are hearing more importantly scott that there is support for his position we did hear rather plainly uh from waller and from bowman but also we have uh several other fed officials hammock talking uh bostic talking uh and really supporting the idea that the fed needs to wait and see what happens with tariffs and inflation oh we

Are we setting ourselves up for a pretty good battle inside the room, Steve, as the next meeting approaches, given the very public disagreement, I think is a fair word on the views of the folks you just cited with some others.

It could be, Scott, but I just don't know how people are going to react. Let's say that the, and I have no idea if this is going to happen, if the June inflation numbers come in at 3%. The case of those who want to cut is going to be much weaker. If it comes in lower...

then you will have either a fight or a lot of acquiescence on the idea. So, Scott, just write these dates down. July 6th, we get the jobs report. July 11th is inflation. July 9th, the Fed, the president decides on the reciprocal tariffs. The Fed meets July 30th. So don't take too much time at the beach, my friend. No, you're the one who has to be on duty. We'll do accordingly.

You're the one who's in trouble. Steve, thanks. That's Steve Leeson. As I said, Steve's going to continue to monitor all of this. And Steve, please do come back and let us know if there's anything that we need to know. But you see the markets here, and that's what all of you need to know, that we are now just the highs of the day for stocks.

We are 1% away on the S&P 500 from a new all-time high. And the market has crept higher ever since word of that ceasefire out of the Middle East came through earlier today. And we're holding these levels. It's very interesting. The investment committee is with me today, too. Josh Brown, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, and Kerry Firestone. Joe, I'll give you the ball first.

Nothing new there, but very much new in the market. I mean, we're not that far away now and we continue to creep higher. No, and I think the trajectory points towards we will achieve new all-time highs relatively soon. I think the chairman did little to disrupt what already was a very favorable and optimistic mood coming into the opening of trade today. I think markets are

are beginning to understand based on his comments. September 18th for me is the date. I think in July, July 29th and 30th, you'll get some dissension surrounding whether they should cut. I think they'll be cutting by September 18th because I don't think you're going to see the inflation that everyone's talking about showing up in those readings.

continues to drive higher. I use the word resiliency. I will use that word over and over again because this is one of the most resilient markets that I have ever witnessed. Jeff, so yields were being closely watched today. They were higher. They're lower now, I believe. Oil prices continue to fall. Consumer confidence was a miss at 93 versus 99 and a half. UBS today says the fundamentals remain supportive.

even with the Middle East and what's going on. Wolf Research poised to reaccelerate to make a run at the highs. Is that what you think, too? I do. I do. And I think I go back to the economy overall.

You're running at 3.4 percent now for the Atlanta Fed tracker for the second quarter. Just go back and read the transcript from Carnival Cruise and what the CEO said about the consumer. They are strong. They actually beat expectations. They raised numbers. Bookings for next year are going to be similar to this year, which were a record.

So the consumer continues to do well because they have jobs, they have better wages, inflation is coming down. But I did take away the same that you did with regards to Fed Powell, because if it wasn't for the tariffs, they actually would be cutting. That's really big, actually. Like maybe he actually does get it. He gets it. But what's he going to do? He's he's.

He's in this paralysis like many others have been because they just don't know and they don't want to make a mistake. Of course they don't want to make mistakes. They don't want to cut too early and then have inflation reemerge as a result of the tariffs and then have to react to that and then look silly and also create bigger problems than probably it's worth. What's your thought, Cara?

I think it's very interesting that the groups that have done really well this quarter to date, which are technology, consumer communication services, and discretionary, consumer discretionary, which are really...

the big mag seven stocks. It's Microsoft, Meta. It's not Apple, but it's Tesla for sure, Nvidia, et cetera. That has driven the market. And these, for the most part, I mean, not really Nvidia, do not require, you know, they're agnostic about tariffs except for Nvidia. And that is... I'm sorry, Carrie, I'll let you continue two seconds. Give me a 12 months, please, of the queues. Let's take a look at that. Because that's like...

point three percent from a new all-time high for the Q's it goes with what Kerry's saying yeah forgive me but I wanted to put that up and you continue please no no it's exactly true we've had a year the year today had the defensive names like consumer stocks and then some cyclicals industrial and financial that strongest year to date but the tone of this market has changed and it feels very much as if we've got a runway at least over the next month for the big tech and

and digital giants to lead the market higher. And you need them, I think, to get to the new high. And that's, you know, it doesn't take much. You're getting a bigger buy-in, if you will, Josh. The biggest equity inflows in seven weeks, according to B of A and their client flows. More tech buying as well. We have the tech sector hitting a high for the first time since December. So this is game on for that trade.

It is. And one of the things that I keep returning to is just like if you're paying attention to stocks and not just the stock market, then you understand exactly why we're approaching highs at this point. We've neutralized the worst of what we thought would happen with the tariffs. Now we seem to be getting a little bit of a handle on the geopolitical risk and the market has rendered its verdict, which is LOL.

And look at the stocks that are going up to Carrie's point. The NASDAQ 100 is .09% away from all time highs.

not 52 week highs, all time highs within the S and P 500, 67% of the technology sector stocks are above their 20 day moving average. These are micro bull markets within macro bull markets. 78% of tech stocks are above the 50 day, 56% above the 200 day. And those numbers are climbing. Um,

About 9% of S&P tech names are currently at 52-week highs. And the XLK overall, the sector overall, the RSI is about 70. That bull market is the most important bull market to what the average does, to what the index does. We all know that. What's the second most important? Financials. Here is a sampling of companies that are within 5% of their 52-week highs right now. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldstein.

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citi, you have not seen a market top where all of those names are within 5% of their highs. Those markets tend to persist. And even away from the big banks, look at Coinbase. It's the best performing stock in the S&P financial sector year to date. It's up almost 40% on the year, and it wasn't exactly a low price stock heading into the year. So when you have financials and you have tech doing what they're doing, that's like

I don't know, 40% of the market cap of the S&P. That's really all you need to understand about why we are where we are. By the way, I'm just noticing, do you see Uber? I do. Uber's up 7.5% today. And guess what? Tesla's lower. Is it directly related to what some may have thought was a lackluster launch of RoboTaxi over the weekend?

Well, I think it also has to do with Waymo announcing that they're going to be expanding into Atlanta. That's obviously favorable, the relationship that exists there. But Uber is an example of what? An industrial stock. And we're talking about financials and technologies. Industrials are the best performing sector year to date. And they haven't let us down in this quarter. This quarter, they're up 10%.

So they are participating as well. The semis, to Josh's point, they are now engaged. They had been dormant for quite a while. Look at a name like KLA Corp. I'll tell you that the strongest momentum name, which we actually do not own right now in the semi-universe, is AMD.

Pull up a chart. It's trading about 136. You can pull up a bunch of different ones. AMD's up almost 6%. Micron's up almost 4%. Broadcom today hits a new record high. That stock got upgraded at HSBC. 400 bucks is the price target. The new one for shares of Broadcom. And there's broad ownership. But, Steph, you've been in this thing a long time. Oh.

A long time. And actually, inference demand is inflecting. They said that on their conference call. And you need custom ASIC chips for inference because you have to balance the efficiency and the power. And so that is where they are a winner.

And they are gaining momentum. And in the meantime, they have earnings growth of 44%, revenue growth of 20%. They have industry-high margins. They rose 320 basis points last quarter, year over year. That's huge.

You've got pricing power, free cash flow. I don't like an upgrade here because it's had such a nice run, but I understand the enthusiasm for the name. Yeah. Applied materials to 220 from 200 overweight at Cantor. Carrie, you got that?

Right. I think it's part of the same scenario. I mean, we are so interested, of course, in what's going on in the whole universe. And you can't do that without the equipment to make the chips. And that demand is insatiable. It still appears. We heard about it the last quarter. We're going to hear about it in four weeks, too. So that's a name that we feel you have to let's circle back real quick to give me an over again, guys, please.

Josh, I'd like your take on this as we watch that stock surge. The new news related to what happened this weekend was that the robo taxi incidents caught on camera in Austin draw regulators attention. That's a CNBC dot com headline. And you can check that out for yourself and read through the story. Is this a direct reaction to what happened?

but was a limited rollout. And then, you know, whomever is going to opine on whether it met the moment or not. But this stock move in Uber is pretty interesting, I'd say.

Look, Tesla shareholders have already fully priced in the robo-taxi according to the sell side. I read all the notes. They're all like, okay, great, but kind of the stock already rallied on this. We get it. In the meanwhile, they had 10 cars on the road. The cars had human drivers in them. They had a couple of minor incidents, which don't seem like that big of a deal. You have to really hate Tesla to say that that was a flop.

but when you consider who's in the cars it's dan ives it's uh tesla influencers um from social media it's fans so what did you think the the rider feedback was going to be so look i think it's actually a positive that tesla is now in this market this has been an overhang for shareholders of uber since they announced that they were going um and every time there's like positive headlines about robo taxi stupid people sell off the stock of uber because they don't understand

The big picture here is that autonomous is great. Tesla should have a great service. So should Waymo. And Uber's role in this ecosystem is to partner with all of the autonomous players who are going to exist and make money as a result of the fact that the human driver is the most expensive part of the experience for both you, the consumer, and for Uber, the company. It's called take rate.

The take rate to the human driver is the highest cost part. So this is all positive for Uber. The street is waking up to that. Stock is the number one performer in the S&P 500 today. I was pounding my fist on the table on this show 700 times.

every time it fell on news of competition. The rollout in Atlanta today is important. It's the second city, they're already in Austin with Waymo. The rollout of Uber and Waymo together in Atlanta is super important. It's a whole other region of the country where people will log into the Uber app, see that there's an autonomous vehicle, it's a Jaguar,

uh... from way more take that ride and have their minds blown and that's what the stock is reacting to right now this is my largest position personally i've been saying it's my highest conviction still is i don't know why it's under a hundred dollars a share makes no sense to me and even when it gets there i'm not selling you know there's another stock that's uh... been doing well it's a toast

That's your stock, too. It's up 4.5% this week, almost 22% year-to-date. You've got a breakout on your hands, right?

Yeah, $25 billion market cap. This is recently added to my best stocks in the market list. We wrote it up for CNBC Pro the other day. This is a stock that's about to make a 52-week high, in my opinion. 45 it hit in the middle of May, backed off on low volume. That's exactly the setup that you want to see for a new breakaway. And the reality is this. This is a company that has effectively...

dominated the restaurant and hospitality space for payments but it's so far beyond the payments play every restaurant that they get their terminals into there's a high cost up front right they have to give all the waiters and waitresses the little handheld thing that they come to the table with there's setup costs there's time there's money being spent but once they get in um they never leave

And when you look at the growth of cash flows that this company is showing Wall Street relatively early in the evolution of this industry, you understand that that growth is fairly rare in the S&P 500 combined with the inertia of clients who don't walk away. It's reminiscent to me of Salesforce.

in the early days. This is becoming the industry standard for payments and they're signing bigger and bigger enterprise deals with Applebee's recently, with the entire Marriott chain, and they're just barely scratching the surface internationally. So Toaster's

something that started as a trade and has since become a long now a conviction long i added to it the other day which we talked about again this is a name that so dominant of its space i'm surprised it's still at 44. got a nice breakout step in the banks uh as well you have names like your wells fargo up 1.3 percent uh jp morgan hits a new record high some of the regionals like state street

at a new high as well. Citigroup up 2%. Goldman up another 2.2%.

So we talked about the Morgan Stanley Bank Conference last week. All of the companies had good things to say about M&A, the pipeline, and improving demand, better deals, better equity capital markets. It's not going to be all perfect when they report earnings, but I think the numbers are going to be good. Yeah, they kick off the season. Yes, they do, in two weeks. And I do think it's going to be good. I think the net interest income story has yet to play out.

That's your catalyst. You have regulation that is easing that will help capital and buybacks. And the stocks are still really cheap relative to the market and actually on an absolute basis, too. So to me, I think I'm overweight and I'm going to stay overweight. All right.

All right, so we'll take a quick break. We're gonna come back. We have many calls of the day to get through and ownership all over. - The new Huggies Snug 'N Dry are luxuriously soft and ultra dry. How soft are we talking? Unbelievably soft, irresistibly soft. Doesn't your baby deserve a diaper that's oh so gentle on their tushy? Huggies Snug 'N Dry helps keep them comfy, cozy and protected. Experience the unexpected softness and up to 100% leak protection.

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We do have Josh's best stocks in the market list as well. A new edition that you need to know about. We'll do all that when we come back.

All right, we have a move to tell you about. It's from Stephanie Link, and it's a sale. Yeah. It is? I indicated Accenture last week when they reported earnings. It really was a crummy quarter, and bookings were very soft, down 6% year over year. They're restructuring their services business, which I'm still trying to figure out why they're doing that and what that's going to mean for growth. They had a gross margin miss. There was nothing really good. So I just think there's so many other technology stocks. IBM is one of them that I think is taking market share that I prefer. All right.

All right. Let's hit some calls of the day. Heiko and Leidos initiated or resumed with buy ratings. That's its default. It's Heiko a record high today. You own both of these names, Joe.

High Coast, the number three ranked stock out of all the 22 industrial names that we own. You're experiencing double-digit revenue growth here. The commercial aerospace component of it, remarkably strong. Leidos in a little bit of a different direction. I think Stephen Weiss gave this as his final trade yesterday. They're still recovering from the sell-off that they had in November, a significant sell-off.

sell-off related to government contractor concerns. They're recovering from that slowly, but not in the best place. I like Heiko clearly over Leidos. What about HowMet? Target to 205 at Jefferies. Let's look at that one. Target was 195.

It's a record high today for that stock. Yeah, and that's number one. That's the number one rank industrial stock that we own in the ETF. We've owned it for quite some time. This company is executing remarkably well, and they have relationships in commercial aerospace.

that allows them to see their balance sheet continue to be fortified and to see revenue growth accelerating. Number one holding, very proud of what it's done. All right, Snowflake has new coverage over at Morgan Stanley, and they raised the stock to overweight.

Better executing and faster innovating. That's the headline here. 52-week high for that stock there, Steph. So they have a new CEO. He's been there for a little over a year, and they have new products, and they're all coming to market. And as a result, product revenues are growing something like 28%, 29%. And that's leading to 70% earnings growth and 25% in revenue growth. So I like this story. It's not cheap. It's had a nice comeback. But I do like it for the AI data center. Let's

Let's see. Electronic Arts, please. Upgraded to buy from neutral. That's at Roth. Target 185 from 175. They say they have increased confidence in this company's ability to execute and deliver double digit EPS growth over the next three years. And that's been the story. And that's been the reason why it decelerated from the November all time high that it had. It's the weakening revenue growth. You want to see that pick up.

there's a lot of expectations here that this potentially is in emin a target because of what we witnessed with microsoft and activism was it are not necessarily sure if that's the case moving forward you need to see better growth that's the story here the balance sheets got a little bit better it's in a place where i would really identify as you just kinda wanna wait and see and let it prove itself i don't think it's a call to action right here okay uh... g even over let's look at that one uh... morgan stanley

I feel like they're chasing us a little bit. They raised the target to 511. Okay. Let's see what the stock is. It's 507. They love the stock. They love it. They reiterate the overweight. They reiterate the overweight. They've liked it. I guess they just didn't think it was going to go up as much as it did. They also increased their bull case. And maybe this is a more fair way to look at this. $727 is the bull case on this name. I mean, look, it's up.

200% in the past year. It's an electrification theme, which we're going to spend $4 trillion between now and 2050. So you can own GE Vernova, which has margin expansion and free cash flow growth coming, or you can own Qantas Services, Eaton, Rockwell, Vertiv. That's a new name for me. So I'm in this theme in a big, big way. It is one of my favorite themes for the next decade.

uh joe lastly eqt buy at roth 69 bucks remarkable natural gas price is down 11 this quarter this natural gas tethered stock continues to move higher here this here's the challenge that you have and understand i have a double in this stock so i can sit and wait with this but they are hedged in 2025.

they're not hedged in 2026 so tell me where you think natural gas prices are going to go and that'll allow you to determine what you do with the position all right let's get the headlines now with sylvana and now hi sylvana hey scott good afternoon to you classified briefings the senate and the house were set to receive today on the iran strikes have been postponed sources tell nbc news they were pushed back to

Give Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth time to return from the NATO summit and attend the briefings. Sources say the Senate's briefing will now be on Thursday, while the House has yet to be rescheduled. A federal judge has ruled that AI startup Anthropix's use of books without permission to train its large language model named Claude was legal under U.S. copyright law, but

the judge late Monday also ruled the company violated the author's copyrights when it stored the books in a central library. Anthropic and attorneys for the authors have yet to comment. And the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season has formed.

The National Hurricane Center said today the storm named Andrea is forecast to weaken tonight and dissipate tomorrow night. The storm comes as a heat dome continues to sit over the eastern half of the U.S., delivering triple-digit highs and humid conditions from Florida. Hear that? It's a text with a receipt showing your latest purchase because of data and A.I. And this? It's a turn signal that helps you drive safely because of data and A.I.

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Silvana, thank you. Silvana, and now straight ahead, Josh Brown's best stocks in the market, a new name just added to the list, to the reveal coming up. We have a new best stock in the market, according to Josh Brown on his list. It's Disney. How did this make the cut?

Yeah, I was very surprised myself. You know, one of the reasons why we keep this list is so that rather than just accept what the narratives are, just generally speaking on social media or in the media, we can see what's going on with our own two eyes and what's actually working. And this is a big surprise for me. Seven entertainment industry stocks are now on the list.

Disney is one of them, Liberty Media's on there, Live Nation, Netflix, which we've talked about, Spotify the same, Roblox is on there, and so is Take-Two. And if you're not paying attention to stocks and you're just listening to broad market commentary, sometimes you could miss the forest for the trees. I think what's going on here is very simple. Stephanie said this in the A Block and she's exactly right. The consumer is consuming. The median year-to-date return

for these seven media stocks on my list is 17.5%. The median return for every other stock in the S&P is about 1%. So this area of the market is outperforming despite everything that we hear about how stressed the consumer is. 90% of the S&P entertainment names are within 10% of a 52-week high. The only one that isn't is Warner Brothers, which has its own problems.

Disney is a really great setup in my opinion. The stock popped onto our list because Wall Street is now giving the company a lot more credit for 125 million global Disney Plus subscribers. They have 12% market share in streaming, uh,

Video On Demand, which is probably their most important growth business right now. They did about three billion in streaming revenue last quarter, and they're having a pretty decent box office summer so far. Not amazing, but not bad. The setup here is very simple.

A break below $100 tells you the momentum is gone and the market's opinion is shifted. That's a really easy stop loss to implement. On the way up, about $120 would be a pretty massive breakout given how long it's been consolidating. I don't know what the catalyst needs to be for that to happen, but if and when it goes, there just aren't a lot of sellers left here. So I really like the setup for investors, maybe not short-term traders, but for investors.

I think this one could work. Yeah. I mean, the others on the list, Netflix, record high. Roblox, 52-week high. Spotify, record high. Take-Two, record high as well. All right. Up next, Santoli. He's here with his midday word. Our senior markets commentator, Mike Santoli, has sat down at this desk to talk about the market less than 1% from a new high on the S&P. We're at the highs of the day across the board. Yeah.

Yeah, so market just sort of unclenching and relaxing the next increment, right? You've notched up one more percent. We're in that kind of fortuitous, slow motion upward grind throughout the day. Yields down. The market choosing to hear Powell as being somewhat flexible about looking through tariff inflation. Whether there's really a change there or not, the market sort of took that as a little bit of a message. I

I also don't think all of a sudden the case for needing a rate cut starts to go away when the VIX is at 17 and credit spreads are great and the market's at a new high and we're all insisting that the economy's in a good spot, right? So I think that's the way the market prefers it. We might get one, but we don't need one. Even those who are calling for rate cuts, on the other hand, admit, well, the economy's doing well. Well, not only that, a lot of the same people calling for rate cuts are promising you that the new budget bill is going to create growth nirvana in this economy forever and a productivity boom forever.

So whatever. You don't have to have that all match up. No, you take it for what it is. What I do think is interesting, though, is, you know, once we got up to within 3% of the old highs, that's a couple of weeks ago, it just felt like it was going to get there. You almost never rebound that much. And the market sometimes really needs a scare and relief cycle. I honestly believe that. Like, you did better by getting shaken out.

and then recovering because it was less bad than expected than if nothing happened. That goes for Iran, arguably even for tariffs. So I think that's a fascinating dynamic in this market where you almost have to get tested and then maybe you have the courage to go to the next step. The tech sector in the S&P is just right on the cusp of a new high.

The queues aren't that far away. This remains very much a tech story. And I've used the phrase revving. The market has been revving its engines in that area. And you see it in the speculative IPO stuff, the wildness that's in there.

Honestly, this market wants to just finish the AI bubble. Like, let's just do it because that seems like if that's going to be the 98, 99 scenario, you had the near bear market and then it was off to the races. I don't think it's going to get as crazy as 99 or even, you know, maybe we get something in the way before that. But that's where it looks like the energy flow is. I just don't even understand how you could think about 99 versus the current period. The stock's leading now. Yeah.

If this is, in fact, inflating some kind of bubble, at least the stocks leading now are the most profitable ones. That's why I'm saying I don't really think it matches up in the sense of the level of speculative nuttiness. On the other hand, yesterday, Circle on Interactive Brokers platform traded twice, had twice the number of customer orders than NVIDIA.

okay and four times the numbers palantir it's a fraction of the market cap so there are there are pockets where it's like off to the races and that kind of energy can engender its own muscle memory i were a long way very fair and the other thing to note i think is that

We've seen many instances of this over the past few years. And in every instance, the market has self-corrected itself. The issues at hand, whether it's SPACs or all the other nonsense. I'm not saying 99 as a, oh, no, it's scary. I'm saying 99 as in it's trying to build momentum in that direction. All right. Good stuff. I'll see you on Closing Bell. That's Mike Santoli back, of course, with us in a couple hours. Finals are next.

Well, with the S&P within 1% now of a new all-time high, I'll see you on Closing Bell as we track this last hour of trade. Tech is getting to that level, too. Lizanne Saunders is going to be with us, among others. I hope you'll join us. Josh Brown, what's your final? JPMorgan Chase, new all-time high. Raise the roof.

Thank you. We'll talk about that more at 3 o'clock, too, with our Leslie Picker following that money for us. Carrie, what do you got? Apollo Group, a private equity firm, focuses on fixed income with lower rates coming sometime this year. That's good. Okay. Stephanie Ling. Morgan Stanley, I expect a good quarter and great guidance. Yeah.

Yep. We said a lot of these banks doing well today. All right. Joe T. The one name in the Joe T that we've owned since inception of November of 2020 has been Amphenol. Another all time high today. If it wasn't rules based, Scott, I probably would have sold it. OK, just to underscore it. Can't say it enough. We're less than one percent away on the S&P from a new all time high. I'll see you in a couple hours on Closing Valley. Exchange begins now.

You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC.

Thank you.

Hear that? It's a text with a receipt showing your latest purchase because of data and AI. And this? It's a turn signal that helps you drive safely because of data and AI.

And that's the sound of a washing machine that knows exactly how much detergent you need right now. Because of data and AI, the world's most innovative companies like Block, Rivian, and LG choose Databricks to run their data and AI. Find out why at Databricks.com.