The Road to New Records 6/11/25
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Welcome to the Halftime Report. I am Frank Holland in for Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, reaching for new records. The S&P 500 within 2% of an all-time high after cooling inflation data and China trade tensions come off the boil. The Investment Committee is standing by to break this entire thing down. Here at Post 9, we have Joe Terranova.

Shannon Sikosha, Jason Snipe, and Steve Weiss first. We're going to do a quick check of the markets before we begin the conversation. You can see a bit of a muted day right now. The Dow up a third of 1%. The S&P and the NASDAQ up very fractionally right now. And really, that's where we've got to start the conversations, Joe.

Surprise we're not seeing the markets move higher after what we heard from Secretary Lutnik The announcement that there is a deal when it comes to export controls on tech to China where earth's to the US and Seemingly that would kind of move supply chains on both sides that would indicate that it was priced in already And I think in fact the market expectation is I said a couple of weeks ago. We've become desensitized to all of the

of negotiations. And I think the market believes ultimately that there will be some form of a reasonable outcome that will comfort markets. I think we learned that well the weekend of May 9th through May 12th when you had the Geneva Convention with the Chinese. So it's steady as it goes. It seems as though it's a very calm environment so far this week. You have the VIX now somewhere around 16. You have the narrative surrounding the broadening out thesis.

expanding to areas of the market that were further unloved such as small caps last several days it appears as though you're seeing some capital go out of momentum into small caps overseas markets remain remarkably strong you have mexico up 17 brazil up 13 germany up 20 spain up 22 you have the hang sang up 21 india up five so

There is this narrative that you can diversify in this market. You're seeing the broadening out. It was reflected earlier in the year in broadening out with sector ownership. And now it looks like we're doing it beyond that geographically and by equity size class. That's a good thing for markets in the near term. So you believe all the good news is essentially priced into the market. Shannon, I want to come over to you. Wells Fargo out with a note earlier today talking about trade and tariffs. Obviously, before we got this, you know,

The conversation that we had with Howard Lutnick saying, in part, we believe we've seen the bottom as the feedback loop close and tariff talk turn constructive. Going forward, we need tangible tariff progress for additional meaningful gains. If we reach the end of June with more promises than progress, expect another bout of volatility. I think the question is, as we said, about 2% from all-time highs, is this progress or is it just what everybody already expected, as Joe said?

I think the challenge here is that we've been in this period of lower volatility, but that really has been as a result of what frankly were

earnings results that were a little bit stronger than expected. And so now we're entering this difficult period that we have four to five weeks before we really see any meaningful uptick in terms of earning announcements, and most importantly, that microdata that's going to corroborate or refute the macro narrative that's going to be created over the next four weeks or so. So I think the biggest challenge here is that, to Joe's point, you know, I think markets, you know, investors and equity markets are anticipating that these tariffs are going to continue to move lower.

and that we're not, certainly not going to be at the peak, but that we're getting down to the areas where we might end up with a, you know, mid to high single-digit tariff rate, which again, although three to four times what we started the year with, is certainly much less bad than, you know, what we were anticipating. I think the other thing, though, Frank, that we need to think about is what's really going to be the catalyst for the second half of the year? And so one of the things we've been talking about in terms of our positioning has been this anticipation of, you know, perhaps an industrial impulse in the second half of the year, looking for that

that renewed confidence from businesses. We started to see CapEx expectations take up just a little bit over the course of the last couple of weeks. We need to see real progress there, however, to justify the moves that we've seen in equities because the equity market, in our view, is trading as if we're going to get that inflection higher in economic expectations.

activity and that we perhaps are near the bottom, if not just at the bottom of some of these economic indicators that we've been watching. I want to ask you a question. So you're talking about the markets anticipating tariffs moving lower. We know right now, at least from the president, that the U.S.-China tariffs or the tariffs the U.S. is putting on China is at 55 percent. We also know the reciprocal tariffs are going to probably be here until July the 31st. So are you saying the market's like that's doable, 55 percent on China, reciprocal? It's OK.

No, I actually think that they continue to see, you know, the potential movement. And more importantly, Frank, that those the broad tariffs that have been announced over the course of the last eight weeks or so, that those are actually going to become much more narrow. And once they become narrow, then from a fundamental perspective, you can look at industry sectors and individual companies and determine their tariff impact, which is much easier for the market to sort of

define value winners and losers in that scenario. All right, Jason Snipe, muted start, also a softer than expected CPI. That came in a bit better than expected. Are you surprised by the action that we're seeing in the market? Again, Dow up just about a third of 1% last time I checked. S&P and NASDAQ up, you know, very fractionally, but very important to know, we've got to keep this in perspective, the S&P 2% from an all-time high.

100% and we're 20% off the highs. And I think to Joe and Shannon's point, a lot of this has already been baked into the cake. We had earnings growth above 13%. So obviously earnings were really good and robust. And we're obviously looking to the next quarter. I think for me, as it relates to what is the catalyst going forward, I think part of it will be the Fed. I think tariff talk has obviously been more muted. We'll see if there are some deals done before this expiration in July. But

You know, I think that the Fed will meet next week. There will be no move. There's a 14 percent chance that they'll move in July. But as we saw lower and cooler CPI print today and we'll see a PPI print tomorrow. These are main numbers that we keep pushing the ball further out. What if we get lighter numbers next month? Right. And now and now the Fed has more of constructive story to potentially move, because, again, when we think about small business,

There isn't a lot of movement there in terms of capex and labor. So I think the Fed could be at play going into the next few months. I feel like we're jumping the gun talking about the Fed already. A lot to digest today. By the way, we're just showing bond yields easing back quite a bit. Earlier today, about 5 a.m., I believe the two-year was above 4%. Now it's at 3.96%. So really sentiment, not a big move, but a sentiment level. Steve Weiss, I want to come over to you.

Before we get all the way to the Fed, let's talk about U.S. fiscal policy. In fact, Barclays was talking about it earlier today, saying in part that they expect choppiness ahead, but we're past peak uncertainty. They go on to say we see choppiness over the near term as the markets await clarity on U.S. fiscal policy. Spending and tax bill, obviously, is what they're alluding to. And with two Q2 earnings likely to feature the first hit from tariffs, they also think that peak trade uncertainty is also in the past. Agree that.

Q2 earnings, that's where you're going to see the tariff impact. And then also, we're having a lot of uncertainty, and the markets are waiting for some resolution there, really from the Senate. What's the Senate going to say about some of these proposals? Look,

You know, I agree in part with what everybody's said so far, but except for what you said about earnings being good. Earnings aren't going to be good. I think that's what Barclays is saying. We're going to see a hit there. You are. So if you forget about the reports and prices and you look at the leading indicators, one of those being duty bonds. So when you bring in, when you import into this country, you've got to pay what the anticipated duty is.

to in a bond, get in the bond for the government and then ultimately pay that off. I can tell you, talking to people in the land industry, those bond prices and what they've got to cover for the duty have been extraordinarily high. They've gone up by 10 and 20 times because of the value of it in terms of the bond costs. That will come through the economy. Now, you can't. And so what we've seen so

far, we've seen a lot of front end buying in expectation tariffs. What we got today is, yes, part selling the news, but the other part of it is there's nothing new coming out of it. So while you're saying the capex, a little bit of hint that it's going up.

Frankly, CEOs are still frozen. They've got no clarity on what duties will be, what their CapEx will be, etc. So I still think we're in a time of uncertainty. Then I go back to where the market was six months ago when we were talking about, or eight months ago, 10 months ago, when we had a course that the market's fully valued at 23 times.

We didn't have any of this uncertainty. There's always uncertainty, but this mega uncertainty. So look, I'm pretty fully invested. I'm actually looking for an opportunity to lighten up because I just don't think that the story is as good as what we're seeing. The market is a lagging indicator. As I look at the foreign indicators, I'm not really impressed with what I see. Now, offsetting that is that we seem to have a different cohort of investors this time.

I've been saying this for a couple of years, where they're using, so if you come to the market since 2008 and older investors have aged out, so if you've come into that time, all you've seen is a V-shaped recovery. And so you're immune to volatility.

I think that's actually a good thing. Let me just interrupt for a second. We actually just saw the NASDAQ and the S&P both turn just very fractionally lower right now, but seeming to lose some momentum as we're talking about the investors that are here right now. Do you think people, I guess, now positive again? Are people digesting something? I mean, it's only a fractional move, Joe, but what do you make of that, just turning

turn a negative in the last couple of minutes. It doesn't mean much. It doesn't mean much to you? I think it's a very quiet day. I don't think there's much to trade off of. I don't think you had a, if you're bullish, you really didn't get the response you were looking for on the tariff news with the U.S. and China. You didn't really get the bullish response that you were looking for as it related to CPI this morning. It seems like muted trading activity, almost like a summer environment. But let me just comment and respond to one thing that Steve is up

is highlighting. And I think that the biggest risk to the market and where the market will stumble in the third quarter is if we lose the tailwind of earnings, because let's remember something that has been the dominant tailwind force for this recovery since the fall of 2022. So are you saying that the

Q2 earnings already baked in that we're going to see the tariff hit and investors aren't as concerned about Q2. You're saying it's in Q3 or you're saying the impact of Q2 earnings? The upcoming earnings reporting season, if there is earnings disappointment, I do not think the market will be able to ignore that and to continue to move higher. You know, there's one other point. Citi was reported to have added

hundreds of millions of dollars there, loan loss reserve. So they're anticipating higher defaults or late payments. So you gotta look at those signs. If you just focus on what the market's done,

I think you're making a mistake with that. We're 2% off the highs. So, look, I don't know if it's this quarter, if it's next quarter, but clearly, PPIs are a more important number than CPI. And then you hit the Fed. And to your point, I don't see the Fed doing anything. I don't even think they'd change language at all.

Right now, again, we're looking at the markets, S&P about 2% from its all-time high. So, Shannon, where do we go from here? Do you stick with tech? Do you still go to momentum stocks? What kind of stock, like Palantir, hitting an intraday high today? Or do you move to other parts of the market that have been working very well, like industrials, very quietly the leading sector here today?

Well, we've been doing that for some time, and I think we were a little early on that in 2024 in terms of broadening out our exposure, both from a large-cap perspective into other sectors outside of tech as well as down into small and mid-cap names. I think one of the reasons that you're seeing this interest in names outside of tech

Now, honestly, we've seen pretty strong returns from certain tech companies over the course of the last number of weeks. I do think there's going to continue to be some bifurcation in that space, and I think that's important for investors to acknowledge, that it's no longer just a MAG-7 versus a 493 trade. There's a lot of dispersion in that. But outside of technology, if you think about what are some of the things that are likely to be catalysts in order for companies to maintain their margins? So, you think about things like productivity enhancement. You think about

in the industrial sector. Is AI or automation going to be able to create that more defensible margin profile? If you look at financials, for instance, I know we're going to talk a little bit about a few names today, but

If you think about the deregulatory environment, you really need to see true deregulation, not just a lack of enforcement in regulation. And where you've actually seen true deregulation efforts is in the financial sector, right? You know, kind of moving back from regulation that was going to be put on. Now companies are able to adjust to that. So I think if you're looking at industrials, if you're looking at financials, if you're looking at some, you know, materials, even energy,

Energy has been a laggard, but starting to look a little bit more attractive, particularly if we don't enter into this recession that was feared coming out of April 2nd. So I think there are opportunities. I think that there's going to still continue to be some momentum behind the tech trade because people are still excited about AI. But there are other ways that you can look at companies in terms of being able to defend their margin in the second half of the year and, to Joe's point, perhaps be able to deliver that earnings growth that is necessary for the market to continue.

Jason, what do you think? Are you also agreeing with Shannon? It's all about the margin story. I think another important thing to point out is the weakening dollar. If you look since April 8th, dollars down about four and a half percent has continued to soften since then. How are you viewing earnings season? We heard Joe's take on it, but how are you viewing the importance of this upcoming earnings season?

and also the margin store. Yeah, I think the margin store is absolutely always important. I think for me, as I look at some of the areas of the market, one, obviously we've seen a lot of momentum in the AI store. If you're looking at some of the energy deals that have been done in terms of infrastructure, whether it's the Amazon deal or the Meta deal,

on energy, just understanding that that story is still early. There's still a lot to go there in terms of monetization. The other point that Shannon makes that I think is huge is financials. I think financials are a nice opportunity. If you think about credit quality, which is still good, I understand Steve's point, you know, about credit, you know, in terms of, you know,

you know some defaults potentially coming down the road and and folks banks putting away capital for that um but i do think the m a cycle is is due to come back around even if it is a 20 20 26 story i think a lot of these financials are prime for future growth particularly the goldman sachs and

and others of the world. So I like financials. I continue to like the tech story. And as I watch the advance decline line and looking at breadth broadly, I think there's lots of areas in the market that are-- Wais, I'm going to come over to you. Another part of the tech trade right now is chips. Our data team just actually sent out a note. Now, this is an odd data point. I'm just going to read it anyway.

The SMH, the chip ETF, of course, is having its best 44-day period since 2002. It's one of those ESPN stats like best shooting on the third Wednesday in December. It's one of those kind of things, but still best 44-day period since all the way back in 2002, so over 20 years. What do you make of the chip trade right now? You know, well, here's where I am. One of my largest positions continues to be Taiwan Semi.

And they just reported another great month, up 40%. That's where I'd play it. You know, I think it's also the most reasonably valued here. I take a look at Broadcom, good company, but I can't pay that valuation. One could buy Taiwan Semi with, I would argue, even better fundamentals. NVIDIA, you know, NVIDIA, I still own some.

And I just wonder if we're going to see that trade down again because the pressure on them to continue to put up great, great quarters when you've got others in their backyard, you know, like Meta developing their own chips. But semis overall, I mean, that's a good indication of which way the economy is going to go. Right now it looks positive, but I'm going to bet that's not the case going forward. Joe, we've got to talk to you about NVIDIA. As part of today's deal, we get the rare earths. They get a loosening of export controls. Seemingly, that would mean NVIDIA chips.

It would. And look, I've talked at length over the last several weeks about the importance of this recovery rebound that we're experiencing in semiconductors. And you attach some actual statistics to it. But really, it's significant because that is kind of what's lifting markets here today.

towards these all time highs. And I think there has to be a degree of sustainability in that. What I'm witnessing as it relates to what the momentum factor is doing in semis is it looks as though it's kind of beginning to moderate somewhat.

after it was very intense over the last several weeks. A couple of names where we still see very strong momentum would be KLA Corp, Applied Materials, and Lam Research. NVIDIA is actually maintaining its positive momentum as well. But there's been some other

semiconductor names where you've seen that intense momentum of the last several weeks begin to kind of moderate somewhat. And that's worth keeping your eye on. All right, Jason, you also own NVIDIA, also Qualcomm. As we talk about the loosening of the export controls, again, seemingly that helps NVIDIA or at least leads to more NVIDIA revenue going to China. What do you think this means for Qualcomm as well?

No, I think it's a big deal. And I think the story for me with Qualcomm is this reach and purchase to improve their AI infrastructure, which I think is going to be huge. Again, the Qualcomm story is they continue to diversify revenue streams, whether it be IoT, whether it be automotive and others. So I continue to like this name, the innovations of Snapdragon. I think it's

is crucial. And, you know, as we look at this Apple deal coming to an end, I think they've done a great job of telegraphing where that's going to end and continue to diversify revenue sources over the last several years. All right. Great time to talk about the MAG7 as well. Shannon, what's your view on this basket of stocks? Up for the last three weeks, if you look at the charts, Tesla has been one of the big gainers in the MAG7, shares up over 30 percent over the last couple of weeks, despite

I don't know the word to call it, the fight with the president. I think that's putting it lightly when you call it a fight, even though Elon Musk apologized. Apple, a laggard, actually negative over that three-week period. What do you make of that basket of stocks? Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, I think that there's going to continue to be dispersion here. So if you look at some of the challenges that

alphabet is facing. You saw the announcement of some layoffs and that was covered in the earlier show. I think that if you look at what came out of Apple yesterday, there's going to continue to be a wait and see approach as it relates to their AI opportunity. But I do think that for investors, and this is actually similar to something that Steve said earlier,

You know, the draw of those strong balance sheets, the draw of that continued higher absolute earnings growth is continuing to have the investor, particularly the retail investor, very much focused on these names as part of their portfolio. So I think they're an important group. I do think that there's going to be some dispersion. And again, I would

probably advise investors really not to trade them as- as one cohort and rather look at this underlying momentum. Particularly around the AI trade I do think that this group. Perhaps absent Tesla is going to continue to trade on AI.

enthusiasm or criticism. And so I think that it's important to acknowledge that there might continue to be some volatility as that narrative unfolds. If I had to rank them based on relative performance, relative strength, it's clear to me that Microsoft in the process of rebuilding positioning and sentiment has been the strongest. It's reflected in the expression of making most recent really a new all-time high. Second, I would place Meta.

Meta appears to have similar type of strong momentum in the near term where it wants to move towards that all time high. And you can make the argument for Nvidia and Amazon potentially being able to do that as well, though for Amazon, it's a little bit more of a challenge to get to that level.

The other names that I didn't talk about here, they're struggling. Even though Tesla has had the recovery, it's struggling. Apple post WWDC is struggling as well. I think it's slipping below $200 as we're speaking.

I don't think the totality of the Mac 7 has the dominance that it had in 24 and 23. And guess what? That's actually a really good thing because that means it's a healthier environment and that allows you the opportunity to try and create some alpha if you can and outperform the market.

It's so funny that you say that. I was actually talking to some other money managers. They're saying people are going away from the triple Qs and the SPY because of that overconcentration of the mega cap tech names and just looking for more exposure to other parts of the market. But we're going to focus on one of those Max 7 names right now. Joe, I've got to ask you about Tesla. Huge month. Huge month for Elon Musk and his company. Robotaxi is supposed to start in Austin. Is this a real inflection point for this company, or do you think there's still that quote-unquote cult of Elon that's going to continue to invest in this stock and believe in this company?

So I'm going to be very authentic and very humble here. And I'm going to tell you a lot of times people will come on the network and just pretend to know something about everything. It is such a complex story surrounding this company. And I spoke about this on Monday. And what I said on Monday is I don't have the ability because I'm

the strategy that we're implementing, it's rules-based, it's non-discretionary, and we look at a universe of 500 stocks. If I could say, let's look at a universe of 499 stocks, I would do it, but I would have to change the SEC perspectives, and that's a big process to do it. I can't do it, but if you have discretion, I just don't understand. Look, it's a great company. He's a phenomenal innovator. He's one of the best business...

person in the world. But there's such complexity to understanding how you navigate the volatility. And just when you think the volatility simmers down, no, it reemerges once again. So I don't know. It kind of overwhelms what is maybe a technology story related to Tesla itself. And it puts me in a position where

I'm almost uncomfortable speaking about it because I feel uninformed. I like you. No, but I do. You feel uninformed speaking about it because you just don't know. You're a lover of Tesla or you're a hater. But you don't have to be. That's a choice. Can I run something by you? I actually don't think it is. You don't think it is? I mean, is that such a visceral reaction? You could hate it.

Not just because of all the things that Joe talks about, because as a fundamental investor into why I want to own this company, it can be rather difficult to navigate. I'll tell you what, if it's love or hate, tell me who's right. So Piper came out, reiterated overweight $400 price target. Then Guggenheim came out reiterating sell $175 to $170. Directionally, who's right? Is it Piper or is it Guggenheim? Here's what I'd say. This does not trade in fundamentals.

It never did. It's always expensive. It's a capital intensive company. We talked about the fault of Elon. It's a capital intensive. But is it 175 or 400, White? Which one's closer? Look, I think that you've got enough sycophants and people that have posters of Elon Musk on their wall that just want to buy the stock and just don't pay attention to fundamentals. All right, Snipe, 400, 175. Hold on, let me just finish. So if you took Musk's name off this...

and put somebody else there and must is a story granted you take capital intensive company any allegedly in a a c_e_o_ who can stay away from elicit drugs right where the board as reported by the wall street journal was going to conduct a search there's nothing going for robo taxis are crowded space and the front edge their robots are crowded space they don't have the edge there

So what are you going to do? Neither for you, in all fairness. Snipe, 400, 175. Which one's closer? I think it's 400. I mean, again, to Joe's point, it's a very difficult story to understand in certain respects. But if I just kind of look at it simply, his refocus back on the business, I think, is an important catalyst. So I see it go higher. Shannon, you said it was love or hate. I'm going to let you go. 400, 175. Which one's directionally closer? I cannot apply.

not apply it on that. All right. Fair enough. Restrictions, compliance and restrictions. All right, we got to go to a break. Coming up next, our calls of the day, including a bullish call on one big bank. We have ownership here on the desk. Halftime back in just two minutes.

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Substance use disorder and addiction is so isolating. And so, as a Black woman in recovery, hope must be loud.

It grows louder when you ask for help and you're vulnerable. It is the thread that lets you know that no matter what happens, you will be okay. When we learn the power of hope, recovery is possible. Find out how at startwithhope.com. Brought to you by the National Council for Mental Well-Being, Shatterproof, and the Ad Council. All right, welcome back to Halftime. We've got some committee moves to get to. Weiss, going over to you. You boosted your exposure to industrials. Yeah.

Yeah, and I have a lot of exposure there, but I bought XLI and I bought Caterpillar. And here's the reasons. What if I'm wrong?

I'm known to be wrong every once in a while. So if I'm wrong, then the economy is doing okay. I really don't believe it. I bought these and also to balance out the portfolio. My largest positions are Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Taiwan, Semi. And that's where they continue to be. And I think those are all weather stocks.

So, look, Cat was just pretty cheap. I thought it was a good way to play it. I've always, you know, I've generally played it through Deer. Deer, I thought, just moved up and right now is too expensive an entry point. So, yeah.

So it's as simple as that. It's just I wouldn't call it a hedge because I'm not reducing exposure anywhere, but to participate if the market looks through the economic malaise to the Fed easing going forward. Is this also a play on the idea of a U.S.-China trade deal, tariff seizing? Part of it was that. You know, I thought taco was still out there and in play, and it still is, obviously, from the news we got and, you know, given Besant the ability to negotiate away our—

hold on chips, right? So he's looking for an off-ramp, Kadeed is looking for an off-ramp, and that would make the CAD attractive. You got some thoughts about the industrial trade? The industrial sector is the best performing sector so far year to date. Joe TETF has a significant overweight to that.

There's some stocks in there that are performing remarkably well. GE Aerospace, RTX, Axon, which made a 52-week high. Even Boeing looks to have some near-term strength as well. And then, Homet Aerospace performing well. It's interesting because the ITA,

which is the defense and aerospace ETF. That continues to move higher, but yet a lot of the defense names, and we own some of them, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, they are struggling. So it's really, it's not that defense component. It's really the aerospace component.

that continues to be higher. Yeah, and I'd say a bigger position than those. I'm up marginally in CAT and XLI, basically flat, because I just bought it last week. FTAI continues to do well. Stock continues to act like, you know, spectacularly well. Momentum's there. So that's what I like. Just a side note, a friend of Halftime, Brian Belsky, actually neutral on industrials. He says the fundamentals, they lean slightly negative, at least in his opinion. All right, all right.

We're going to move on to our calls of the day. B of A is bullish on Goldman Sachs. They re-rated a buy rating with a $700 price target. A lot of bank ownership here on the desk. Joe, I'm just going to start with you. I mean, what do you make of this call? I've had ownership of Goldman Sachs for the better part of the last four and a half years.

David Solomon has done a remarkable job in just really navigating a significant turn in the business, moving away from some of the consumer facing businesses that they attempted to move towards, going back to what ultimately is their knitting as it relates to investment banking and trading and doing it remarkably well. I think it's restored that reputation. I often use the example, Goldman Sachs is likened to the New York Yankees in baseball. They have that very strong tradition and reputation.

And I see no reason why I'm going to be selling this position anytime soon. All right, snap you on Goldman as well. By the way, coming off some comments from Jamie Dimon, obviously from JP Morgan. I don't know if they're the Red Sox or the Mets. I don't know what they are in that analogy. But worried about the economy slowing down. Is that something that you're worried about impacting Goldman? If Jamie Dimon is right, of course.

I mean, I think as it relates to Goldman, I think a couple of things. I mean, Joe just mentioned getting out of the consumer invasives was big. They cut that loss. I think that was super important. As it relates to kind of the economy, yes, of course. I mean, as a broad take, I mean, that would hurt all the banks. But, you know, they are in...

Right in that IB space, which I think they're the best to breathe there. Trading revenue has done phenomenal, particularly in the first quarter. You saw that really seismic shift there. Revenue was up 6%. The stock is up 9%. And again, as comments earlier I made, just thinking about the M&A cycle, 2%.

to start potentially later this year or early 2026, I think is a catalyst for the start. I know you own it too, right? Yeah, I do. And I was at a family office conference each year for just the top clients. I tell you, you get a chance to meet the people. I know a lot of them. I agree with what Joe says about David Solomon, but I'll tell you that. And I mean this, and I'm trying to think if I'm wrong as I'm saying it.

I haven't met a person at Goldman Sachs on any of their business lines that I'd say, you know, they made a mistake hiring this person.

So the bench is extremely deep. What's amazing is the average age of the firm is up 30. So there's a lot of growth there. It's a really, really deep bench and they are poised. There will be an underwriting cycle. There will be an M&A cycle. And for them, they're the purest play on that. So they will do exceptionally well. Shannon, any general thoughts just about the financial space right now with the idea that those Fed cuts may be pushed out a little longer than we previously expected?

Well, I mean, I think there are a lot of people coming into this year who are very excited about this M&A story. And so I feel like that's obviously going to be delayed. I do think that, again, to my point earlier, I think, you know, if you think about the deregulatory impact and the lack of enforcement versus actual true deregulation, I think that you get a much...

more market tailwind and so even in areas such as digital assets for instance you're seeing a tailwind in multiple parts of the financial sector all right let's move on we're getting in the headlines now so vana now she has those headlines for us from cnbchq so vana good afternoon

To you, Texas Governor Greg Abbott will deploy the National Guard across the state as it braces for more ICE protests. The governor said late last night that the deployment was to, quote, ensure peace and order ahead of a planned protest today in San Antonio. And it follows last night's imposed curfew in Los Angeles after days of protest.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is pushing to open an investigation into Harvard University. The New York Times reporting the investigation would see whether the school violated federal sanctions by working on a health insurance conference in China that could have included officials blacklisted by the government. The State Department and Harvard

declined to comment. And the governing body of women's tennis will protect the rankings for players who take time away to undergo fertility procedures. The WTA's announcement today comes just months after it for the first time offered players 12 months of paid maternity leave, Frank. I'll send it back to you.

All right, Silvana, thank you very much. Our Silvana Henao back at CNBC HQ. Coming up, we got your ETF ads. We're going to drill down on the action across the biggest names in private equity. Halftime is back right after this break. You may get a little excited when you shop at Burlington. What a low price! Did you see that? They have my favorite brand. It's like a whole new world. I can buy two! I'm saving so much!

Burlington saves you up to 60% off other retailers' prices every day. Will it be the low prices or the great brands? Burlington. Deals. Brands. Wow. I told you so. Styles and selections vary by store. Substance use disorder and addiction is so isolating. And so, as a black woman in recovery, hope must be loud. It

It grows louder when you ask for help and you're vulnerable. It is the thread that lets you know that no matter what happens, you will be okay. When we learn the power of hope, recovery is possible. Find out how at StartWithHope.com. Brought to you by the National Council for Mental Well-Being, Shatterproof, and the Ad Council. And welcome back to Halftime. We're getting some news out of Washington. Let's send it over to our Megan Casella at the White House with more on that story. Megan.

Hey, Frank, so we're getting a few more details now on that China story, putting some more meat on the bones of that framework. This is coming from The Wall Street Journal reporting that, according to them, U.S. companies that are getting granted export licenses from rare earth companies in China, that those licenses will only be valid for six months. So it's only a temporary reprieve here in this trade truce. Now, I've talked to the White House on this and awaiting a fuller response from them. But in the meantime, Frank, this is different.

This is new versus what we've been hearing so far today. It comes after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was on CNBC telling us that China was, quote, going to approve all applications for magnets from U.S. companies right away, you know, very much like the same day. He did not talk about them only being valid for six months here, Frank. So the important part is that this is a way for the Chinese to sort of preserve leverage if necessary.

Things do go south later this year. They have a way of sort of going back to the U.S. and saying, actually, we're not giving you these rare earth minerals and these magnets unless you do more for us. So it is still a step in the right direction, but we're mostly just cleaning up everything that's happened since Geneva, Frank, and for now still in a very fragile sort of trade truth on both sides, with the U.S. still having those tariffs set to go back into effect in August, and now the Chinese saying that these rare earth export licenses are only going to be valid

for six months at a time. Frank. All right. I'm making a sell alive at the White House. Megan, thank you very much. Now we want to turn to our Dominic Chu with today's ETF edge. We're having some technical difficulties. We're going to try to get back over to Dom in just a minute with more ETF edge. But right now we're going to take a very quick break. More halftime coming up right after this.

Welcome back to Halftime. And now back to Dominic Chu with today's ETF Edge. Dom, can you hear me now? Good. Yes. All right. The global trade war, Frank, and the resulting macro uncertainty has put a lot more spotlight on markets outside of stocks and bonds. Today's ETF Edge is focusing on alternative investments that have been getting a lot more attention. So joining me now are VanEck and associate CEO Jan VanEck, as well as Sprott Asset Management CEO John Champaglia.

John, I'm going to start with you. Uranium right now, the hot trade with the Global Lex Uranium ETF hitting its highest level since 2014. Should traders and investors ride the upside wave or be more patient?

Yeah, I think the sector is catching another bull market wave. We've obviously seen these stocks have a very sharp V-shaped recovery since their April lows. The stocks are up around 50 percent, and that is obviously being underpinned by a resurgence back to nuclear energy around the world. President Trump, before executive orders a few weeks ago, were very bullish. And we're also starting to see short squeeze going on in a lot of these stocks that we think were oversold.

All right. And Jan, you recently launched a fund targeting alternative asset managers. How much interest is there for a fund that targets the people who manage alternatives? Yeah, I mean, I think what's happened is there's a large part of the economy that's not captured by public stocks and bonds. Right. Lending since the financial crisis by non-banks has exploded significantly.

And because the IPO market has slowed down, there are over 1,200 private venture-backed companies that are just trading out there, growing like Stripe or SpaceX.

but there's no way to get access to them directly through an ETF. But we can invest in the fund managers that manage those assets. So it's not just private credit, it's private equity and everything else these days. And infrastructure, right. So the name of that fund is Alternative Asset Managers. The ticker symbol is GPs because what they call the fund managers are general partners or GPs. All right, well...

Thanks to both John and Jan. For more on the alternative story, just tune into our ETF Edge online show, 1.15 p.m. Eastern time, as you can see on your screen, etfedge.cnbc.com. And Frank, I'll send things back over to you.

Tom, thank you very much for today's ETF Edge. Switching gears now, our friends at the Golf Channel are following the PGA Tour stop this week at the third major of the year with the 125th U.S. Open getting underway tomorrow. Todd Lewis joins us now live from Oakmont, Pennsylvania with much more on what to expect. Hi there, Frank, and welcome to Oakmont, which is hosting the U.S. Open for the 10th time. That's more than any other club in the country. It's kind of considered...

a cathedral of major championship golf. And I can tell you when you play here, it's not like going to church. This golf course can eat your soul. Five-inch rough, green speeds are 20% higher than the average green speed on the PGA Tour. So you have to play well. And some incredible names have won here at Oakmont over the years. Talking like Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, 1973 shot. But it's considered the greatest championship round in major championship history. That is a 63 in the final round to win here. So,

Great legends win here at Oakmont. Three names are coming into this US Open with a lot of attention. One, of course, being Scottie Sheffler, the world's top player. He's won three times in his last four starts. Had a chance to walk with him in his practice round. I can tell you he is not searching. He is ready for this championship and he is trending, obviously. There's Bryson DeChambeau. He is the defending US Open champion.

He's not only doing great things with his golf clubs, he's doing wonderful things creating content on his own YouTube channel. How about this? Last year, he had 1.4 billion hits on his YouTube channel. This year, he's trending towards 2 billion hits on his channel. And then there's Rory McIlroy who arrives here

a little bit of an enigma. He missed the cut last week at the RBC Canadian Open and he signed his scorecard on Friday and then went home on the weekend. 21 shots out of the lead. Did a lot of heavy practicing over the weekend at his home course in South Florida. Comes here hopefully with a different attitude. He hit the reset button. According to his team, he's

He's playing a little bit better, but we shall see. It's going to be a great championship. 200,000 people are expected here at Oakmont and Pittsburgh this week for the U.S. Open. Should be a fun show. Guys? All right. Todd Lewis, thank you very much. At Oakmont, right outside of Pittsburgh. Stop by Primanti Brothers. Good sandwiches there. Also, be sure to follow the coverage of the U.S. Open beginning tomorrow at 6.30 a.m. Eastern. That's on the USA Network. Again, live at 6.30 a.m. Eastern on the USA Network.

Coming up next, Mike Santoli joins us with his midday word. And we're back right after this.

And we're back on halftime. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli joining us with his midday word. Mike, what are you making of the action we're seeing right now? Pretty muted, obviously, reaction to what was a benign, tame CPI report. And I guess we can explain that in a few ways. One, markets a little bit unwilling after this run that it's had to just extrapolate out from here that the inflation data are going to continue to be free of tariff influence. Obviously, there's no direct line yet from markets.

a very low CPI print and Fed easing or anything like that. Plus, you have to ask, why is the S&P 500 up 25% in two months? Obviously, it started out mega washed out oversold. We took care of that with some of the reversal. And along the way, we've rebuilt the idea that the economy remains in a decent spot as inflation maybe is so far in check. And we're going to get progress on trade. So I think when you get up to these levels, a lot more has to work.

And so I don't know that there's any real red flags going up because we haven't gotten yet a positive reaction to CPI. But it just does show the distance we've traveled already to get here. You know, a couple of recent announcements about this sector, the energy sector is the best performer over the last week, up about 4 percent. What do you make of that rise at outperforming the other sectors just over the last week as we get some, you know, what you call performance?

benign news when it comes to inflation and also some movement when it comes to trade? I see it as part of a general rotation below the surface that's been going on, which is out of momentum, mega cap growth, and then into value and neglected sectors and year-to-date laggards. That's been evident across different sectors, and energy has been a big beneficiary of that. Plus, crude prices have firmed up in part because companies have

are exploring less and they're drilling less and the rig count is down. So you have a supply response to low prices that is firming up prices. That's kind of the way it works in commodities. Yeah, some of those nuclear deals also obviously benefiting the sector as well. Our Mike Santoli with his midday word. Mike, thank you very much. Coming up here on Halftime, we got this set up. Stay with us.

And welcome back to Halftime. Let's get the setup on Oracle. Reporting after the bell tonight, Jason Snipe, you own this one. Yeah, the stock's been on a run since April 21st. It's up almost 43%. I think in the last quarter, the concern was around supply constraints for infrastructure, AI infrastructure build. So they have about 130 billion dollars

And RPO, RPO revenue was up 63 percent last quarter. So let's see if they can monetize that. I think some of the news that we heard today out of China and releasing of export controls, I think will be positive for the stock. But that's going forward. So I continue to like this name going into the break. You should love it up 43 percent, man. Of course, man. Where's the excitement? Is this the momentum trade you guys were talking about? I mean, does Oracle symbolize? You took the words out of my mouth.

Does this symbolize the momentum trade that you guys were talking about earlier? It does. It's in our momentum ETF. It's in a lot of other momentum strategies as well. Weiss, you're excited about the next move from Weiss? I'm excited for my friend. It might be Oracle. Final trades are coming up next. We're going to see what Weiss is really doing. Coming up. Stay with us. Following the Halftime Report podcast? What are you waiting for? Look for us in your favorite podcasting app. Follow the Halftime Podcast now.

And welcome back to Halftime. Time now for final trades. Steve Weiss, you're up first. QXO. So I bought some more QXO last week. I haven't been on the show for about a week. When they completed their additional fundraise. So look, Brad can raise a lot of money. He used that to pay down debt or make acquisitions. This is a long-term play. Ten years, this stock is going to do what other Brad Jacobs stocks have done, go up and up.

Shannon Sikosha. Energy. So there seems a little bit counterintuitive given the fact that oil prices have been pretty range bound. But we have some optimism around natural gas and around the inflection of economic activity in the second half of the year. Jason Snipe.

Evercore, M&A cycle and deregulation coming back in vogue. I like this one here. JOT with the last word. And that would be Charles Schwab, which has had a remarkable recovery from where it was in March in 2023. All right, that's going to do it for us and halftime. Thank you so much for watching The Exchange with Kelly Evans. Starts right now. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern, only on CNBC.

Thank you.

or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com forward slash Halftime Report disclaimer.

Substance use disorder and addiction is so isolating. And so as a Black woman in recovery, hope must be loud.

It grows louder when you ask for help and you're vulnerable. It is the thread that lets you know that no matter what happens, you will be okay. When we learn the power of hope, recovery is possible. Find out how at startwithhope.com. Brought to you by the National Council for Mental Well-Being, Shatterproof, and the Ad Council.